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GT Advanced Technologies Inc. Message Board

ken_the_bum 104 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Aug 28, 2012
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  • Reply to

    time to go?

    by amaretto_fianchetto Aug 20, 2014 10:57 AM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum 14 hours ago Flag

    Frank.

    I agree with you that Blue Planet and SDN will eventually win out over the current router schemes; but I'm probably a sentiment player more than I'm a long term holder. Right now I'm still reeling from the Q2 report not lifting this stock up; because for me, the report exceeded expectations. But the 800 pound anchor in this room is the cash burn and likelihood of an additional stock offering – or maybe some preferred's or (heaven forbid) convertible preferreds. Every time I have ridden out some additional financing, it's resulted in the equity loosing 25-50% of it's value.

    Maybe Cyan is different and it will pull thru it all better, but I'd rather get back to a full investment here after they work out the money issue. I really like the company, the innovation, the products, and the people; but I need to lower my CYNI risk as long as a money raise is on the horizon. Of course there are always those long shots (Tier 1 endorsement or buyout offer) to bounce the stock; but business as usual right now just isn't saving this stock.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    time to go?

    by amaretto_fianchetto Aug 20, 2014 10:57 AM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 20, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    amaretto;

    I've trimmed back a bit after the Q2 report, which I considered was pretty darn good, resulted in little positive impact on share price the next day. I've been worried for some time about future dilution if they don't get the cash burn under control; and now that has come to the forefront along with some concern about Cyan's business prospect. I've still got most of my shares but I might continue to trim back if CYNI keeps trending down. And now I have one additional concern and that is the overall market trend, which I'm afraid is going to retreat in next couple months.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Zack's adds CYNI to Strong Buy list

    by amaretto_fianchetto Aug 15, 2014 9:18 AM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 15, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    amaretto;

    Zacks finally got it right. But I have to question the credibility of Zacks after they gave Cyan a SELL recommendation on March 4th when the share price was in the $3.20's and for the stupidist reason of all -- CYNI sp was dropping. A couple days later CYNI jumped 20% and this bunch of losers told us their call was right. And now suddenly to have them consider CYNI a strong buy at $3.75? Sorry, Zacks is still losers.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Price target cut to $3.50

    by fearthethumb Aug 14, 2014 10:00 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 15, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    Cyan didn't miss the consensus. Jeff missed the second quarter revenue, which was really $24.4M.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Aug 13, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    A stock doesn't suddenly go down 30% in one day at 10-times normal volume without a PR explaining what the motive is. I emailed Amedica last night and was prepared to keep calling today if the company did not give an explanation. I was mostly glad this morning to see the financing PR because the reason for yesterday's plunge was not related to Amedica's business performance or SiN prospects. However, I feel yesterday's manipulation of share price was totally unnecessary. Surely if Amedica's management is looking out for shareholders first, those convertible preferreds wouldn't even exist or at least would have restriction that prevent manipulation of share price.

    So yesterday's 30% plunge does not refect on Amedica's business prospects. This stock is still destined to get over $5 once the manipulation ends, and over $10 once SiN takes over it's market.

    JMHO
    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Aug 13, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    The CFO should be fired over the sweet Convertible Preferred (CP) deal he gave Magna. Oh that's right, he resigned last week during the second quarter 10Q and cc. Probably to take a cushy job at Magna since he gave them a way to take over a large chunk of this company from shareholders.

    CP's are ripe for stock manipulation whenever the conversion price is floating and not fixed like warrants. This is especially true for a low volume smallcap stock like AMDA with only $60K-$80K trading on an average day. Sure there are a ton of restrictions written into the conversion process, but a CFO should never ever underestimate the ruthless cutthroat tactics of hedge funds to manipulate stock trades.

    So now we're down over 30% for no reason other than manipulation by Magna to sweeten their stock conversion. They would like nothing better than to own a big chunk of this company at halfprice. As far as dilution goes, how are shareholders any worse off with a Private Placement of a couple million shares at $3.5 (plus some warrants) than this deal which already has cost us 30% in manipulation and may result in even more dilution after the conversions are made. Maybe Amedica didn't want a PP since they just did the IPO six short months ago. It wouldn't look good.

    Amedica is definitely not looking out for the commons.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Aug 13, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    There it is: Manipulation to the Max
    The convertible notes had all sorts of restrictions on them which were just posted today. The following explains why we had a selloff yesterday with a closing price below $2.50. How naive of Amedica, to not protect their shares and shareholders better against these moneysucking #$%$. Here's some of the damaging lines:

    ....In addition, the Investor has agreed that unless otherwise mutually agreed upon, the Investor, upon conversion of the Convertible Notes, shall not sell more than the greater of: (i) $125,000 of Common Stock, in any five (5) consecutive trading day period, or (ii) 15% of the daily trading volume of the Common Stock on any given trading day. If, however, on any given trading day more than $250,000 of the Common Stock is traded, the Investor may trade up to 33% of the daily trading volume on that day (the "Investor Restrictions"). Furthermore, the Investor Restrictions will be removed on any day the price of the stock trades below $2.50....

  • Reply to

    Why does this stock go straight down?

    by blummie1000 Aug 12, 2014 12:55 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 12, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    Over 200K shares traded, I'm starting to think there is some bad news out there that we are not seeing yet. I don't know what, but something has the selling in overdrive. I'm even thinking of some manipulation to show a low price, but I'm not sure why.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Why does this stock go straight down?

    by blummie1000 Aug 12, 2014 12:55 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 12, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    My guess is that a lot of employees are getting their vested shares from the RFU's and cashing out right away. Remember they were promised these shares at the beginning of the year as part of the IPO. I've been searching the filings to see if I can find out who gets how many shares when. Roughly 1.5M shares vested in Q2 (I'm assuming) mostly to directors, and another 0.5M shares vest in Q3 (I'm assuming again) mostly to employees. If enough employees decide to sell their shares when they vest, we can see a 50K-100K share dump like we're seeing today and walla a 20% plunge. I've been buying on the dips today ...and there have been a whole lot of dips.

    The Q2 report was basically neutral with a couple minor glitches, which I will discuss later. Soon the company will be putting out clean reports without all this stock-based compensation to muddle the numbers; by Q4 for sure. So maybe by then they can also get those 10 sales folks and 10 marketing folks to start earning their pay and produce some revenues.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Aug 12, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    What the heck is going on here? That was a fantastic report! Is the cash burn the issue or the fact that Q3 projections were only 10% up Q-over-Q. This company is going to have revenues at $30M/Q early next year if not by Q4 this year.

    We need some upgrades.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 12, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    No guesses since that $3.71 in premarket and current $3.80 are totally lower than anything I could have imagined. I was looking for a low of $4.0 and a high of $4.3 today and moving up from there tomorrow. Did I read the same report as today's sellers?

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 12, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    Agreed! The current analyst's recommendations is 3 Holds and 1 Underperform, which seems way too pessimistic for a company that just turned in 28% revenue growth and projected up to another 10% for Q3. Plus from the cc, CEO Floyd said that they had a large $10M order for some complete systems (hardware and Blue Planet) for Q1 of 2015. IMO we'll be talking revenues over $30M per Q by then. Definitely this deserves better than consensus recommendation of a little less than HOLD. Maybe a couple BUY's are needed here at least.

    And there are still 1.79M shorts here, down slightly from the high of 2.06 a couple months ago. That is a lot of short shares that could be burned bad by a upgrade.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Q3 Revenue Projection $25M-$27M

    by ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 5:16 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 12, 2014 2:03 AM Flag

    You're exactly right. Cash and marketable securities were reported to go down by $8.1M but the cash burn was $7.2M.

    Wiz, as a number check, I'm getting around $12.8M drop per quarter average in cash and cash equivalents for last 3Q's. The reason I bring it up is that Ross said the Q3 rate would be higher than Q2 and lower than Q1. If it is close to that $12M average, it could mean need for a cash infusion sometime before yearend. I was surprised there were no questions on the topic.

    -the bum

  • From cc:

    Windstream helped big ($6.7M) to make the Q2 beat. Q3 revenue guidance is $25M-$27M. It looks OK but I believe they lowballed it again (just like Q1 and Q2). I like that lower cash burn of $8.1M, but Q3 & Q4 will be higher. This it could still mean dilution before yearend. We'll see how the market reacts, tomorrow.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Revenue $24.4M Exceeds Guidance

    by ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 4:14 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    You're right amaretto; the market appears to waiting for that Q3 guidance. No bombs please.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Revenue $24.4M Exceeds Guidance

    by ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 4:14 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Great Day!

    Still digging thru numbers and hoping the cc will answer any remaining questions.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Revenue $24.4M Exceeds Guidance

    by ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 4:14 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Cash and marketable securities appear to have gone down by about $10M -- looking for the exact number. Market AH liking the revenue beat.

    -the bum

  • Woppee, one number good -- looking for the others.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    green?

    by amaretto_fianchetto Aug 8, 2014 1:06 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Aug 11, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    I too broke some rules with this one. After I got out with a quick 50% profit on GTAT a year ago, I watched it go up another 300%. So I broke my rule of getting in too heavy in one stock and staying with it too long because I was determined to make up for the error of GTAT. Well, today should help determine whether a rule break was warranted. Regardless of what happens, I still think CYNI will ultimately be a $15-$20 stock or a $10-$12 buyout, if that comes first. But before we get there, we might have some big gyrations.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Aug 8, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    Monday AH, I'll be watching for 3 items in Cyan's Q2 report in the following order of priority.

    1. First and foremost, the cash burn should be “significantly less” as claimed by CFO Ross. I'm looking for a number around $8M. If it comes in over $10M again, then all other numbers won't matter because we'll be in for dilution before they become cash flow positive. Even if we get a reasonable cash burn, we might still be in for a future dilution; and that will be determined by my next two numbers to watch:

    2. Q2 revenue should be in the range of $21M – $23M as projected by the CEO during last quarter's cc. That represents a 20% Q-to-Q growth, which is SUPER since it represents a Y-over-Y growth of 100% if maintained – and that brings me to my last item:

    3. Q3 projected revenue of $26M-$28M since that maintains the 20% rev increase per Q.

    They hit those three numbers and we should be back to an sp of $4.5 in no time. They don't hit them and we might be stuck for a while until we get some news on new clients, contracts, and/or business ventures/partners. IMO innovation awards aren't going to cut it right now.

    -the bum

GTAT
17.66-0.30(-1.67%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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