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GT Advanced Technologies Inc. Message Board

ken_the_bum 112 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Aug 28, 2012
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  • I don't see any news so I'll just credit this to a great opening pop.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Jul 25, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Boring week -- CYNI goes up with market, CYNI goes down with market, and CYNI stays mostly flat with market. No news on any front, and nearly eternity since we heard anything substantive from this company. That must be why they call it the summer doldrums. Hopefully in two weeks from this coming Monday, they'll have something important to tell us; because I'm really having a hard time figuring out exactly where we are at.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Crazy ending?

    by wizardofwheeler Jul 22, 2014 1:31 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 23, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    wiz,
    If you're still inclined to get some SLIC? Thursday morning between 1-2 hours after market open and if SLIC makes a turnaround; IMO that is time to jump on board.

    I've traded many bad-news plungers before and the two times I have found to get in are 1) on the morning right after the bad news, and 2) on the morning of the third day after the news if it is a marginable stock ( $5.0) . Hopefully, SLIC cooperates with historic norms.

    GLTY
    -the bum

  • As a microcap, it's good to see Amedica get any visibility. Here's the blurb:

    “TheStreet Ratings Group would like to highlight 3 pushing the industry higher today:

    Amedica Corporation ( AMDA) is one of the companies that pushed the Health Services industry higher today. Amedica Corporation was up $0.08 (1.9%) to $4.28 on heavy volume. Throughout the day, 64,582 shares of Amedica Corporation exchanged hands as compared to its average daily volume of 24,400 shares. The ranged in a price between $4.16-$4.36 after having opened the day at $4.16 as compared to the previous trading day's close of $4.20.

    Amedica Corporation has a market cap of $49.7 million and is part of the health care sector. Shares are unchanged year-to-date as of the close of trading on Friday.”

  • Reply to

    Crazy ending?

    by wizardofwheeler Jul 22, 2014 1:31 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 22, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Wiz,

    Funny you should mention SILC. It's on my radar screen today, too. Wow it was as high as $73 just back in March and way over-priced then I should add. Few institutions and shorts with SILC, so a lot of retail ownership of the stock. Unless it makes a jump to $31 today, IMO there will be a chance to buy $28 shares by Thursday. Lot of those retail folks are getting calls to make good on SILC margins by COB Wednesday.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Financial Results

    by mrbroox Jul 21, 2014 12:35 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 22, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    I'm not sure what to expect this Q based on the stock performance alone. I don't believe you can use the recent CYNI sp downtrend to make a judgment on the Q2 results.

    Cyan is a growth company and has to have growth in revenues to achieve cash flow positive, or else dilution is inevitable. And growth means new clients, new contracts, and/or new products; of which none were announced during Q2. I was a disappointed in the lack of PR's in Q2, but I don't see the absence of any of these affecting Q2, although it may affect growth in future Q's.

    You mentioned “tepid sales” but I'm not sure what that means with Cyan. During the Q1 cc, CEO Mark Floyd gave Q2 revenue guidance as $21M-$23M, which is roughly 10-20% higher than the $19M realized in Q1. That is not “tepid”. 20% Q-to-Q increasing revenue would mean a doubling of revenue YoY. Any company would love that growth.

    Since last years revenue misses, I think they're being conservative with revenue projections and will hit the high end of their Q2 guidance. For me, the important numbers in this report will be the Q2 cash burn (which Ross said would be “significantly less”) and the Q3 revenue guidance (which needs to keep the growth scenario intact).

    JMHO
    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Jul 16, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    Cyan will release its financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2014 after the U.S. markets close on Monday, August 11, 2014. Company management will host a conference call to discuss the results that day at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time.

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Jul 15, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    Very low volume so I don't really know whats up. My pragmatic friend would say that Cyan is down today because there were more shares being sold than bought. I guess that will have to do for a reason for now.

    -the bum

  • Just announced July 10th, Lightwave awarded a 4.5 Innovation Award to Cyan's Blue Planet. This put it tied with 5 other products for second place (including Infinera's Multi Terabit Packet Optical Transport Network). Lightwave awarded one 5.0 innovation award for first place. Now if Cyan can just translate all these awards into revenue, things will be great. Here's the writeup:

    Cyan: Blue Planet SDN Platform
    Cyan's Blue Planet is the first carrier-grade SDN platform built specifically for network operators and WANs. Blue Planet is a scalable system with open APIs to enable service deployment and application development in a multivendor network environment. It enables an array of Cyan and third party applications to manage and control underlying network infrastructure and, importantly, interoperates with a broad range of third party network equipment.

  • CYNI short interest for June 30 is essentially unchanged

    6/30/14 1,620,620
    6/13/14 1,619,602
    5/30/14 1.789 M
    5/15/14 1.941 M
    4/30/14 2.056 M
    4/15/14 1.964 M
    3/31/14 2.059 M
    3/14/14 1.740 M
    2/28/14 1.701 M
    2/14/14 1.640 M
    1/31/14 1.639 M
    1/15/14 1.598 M
    12/31/13 1.235 M

    No evaluation other than it is close to the low for 2014.

    the bum

  • ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 14, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Quiet?
    This is a small cap stock with little daily trading volume ( less than $100K per day). Institutions, funds and traders are not interested because the lack of liquidity. Because of a Feb IPO, only one 10Q and one 10K have been filed. Little data for a analyst to make a rec. The only folks interested in AMDA are a few long term retailers that are familiar with the SiN story and/or this company.

    I consider the present quiet as a big buying op especially at $4.2-4.3 after that positve news on refinancing the debt. Since they own the SiN ip and now have the cash, it's only a matter of time and execution until they win a big share of the bone replacement market.

    JMHO
    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Jul 14, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    From July 10th article "Optical Transport Vendors Prep for SDN":

    As has been the case with other new ideas, carriers are looking to standards bodies - in this case, groups such as the ONF and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) - to drive consensus on the proper application of SDN and a related concept, network functions virtualization (NFV), to their networks. Also, as has usually been the case, industry is jumping ahead of the standards bodies, either to influence the standards process or to create a first-to-market advantage among early adopters.

    The OpenDaylight Project is the most prominent industry-led SDN force. Several optical transport systems vendors have joined the group - but at least some of these members have positioned OpenDaylight's work as focused primarily on the IP/MPLS layer rather than the optical infrastructure layer......

    These responses from optical equipment manufacturers have ranged from adding programmable capabilities to their hardware (MRV's OptiPacket is a recent example) to full-blown SDN suites, with Cyan's Blue Planet platform perhaps the most salient example of the latter.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Overdue for News

    by ken_the_bum Jul 9, 2014 4:10 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 14, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    Something's got to give. It's been way too quiet for way too long. I'm hoping for something to show up middle of this week.

    I don't like PR's right before a 10Q, because companies will frequently time a positive PR to prop up the share price before a downer 10Q. I'm not saying that will be the case here, but I've seen it play out all too often with other companies.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    greece

    by amaretto_fianchetto Jul 10, 2014 11:39 AM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 11, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    I believe the frequent 100 share trades come about for three reasons (and none of them are retailers buying/selling small lots):
    1. Institutions don't go out and buy/sell their big portfolios at once or they would severely perturb the market on a stock. Instead, they disguise their intention by buying/selling in 100 share trades on a schedule over time and take the average sp they get. Institutions pay trading commission very different than retail and a trade can cost a couple pennies or less.
    2. Market makers acquire or disperse a large block of share for a client by breaking it up into small lots since they are only interested in getting the best price for the client. Many times we'll see the client get the shares as a large trade posted after hours at an average (fractional penny) price within the days trading range.
    3. Market makers use 100-share trades as a means to discover the best bid or ask and as a means to increase the liquidity of a stock. Example: stop orders are triggered at a certain price and mm's can move the price easily with 100 share trades to activate the stops.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    greece

    by amaretto_fianchetto Jul 10, 2014 11:39 AM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 10, 2014 4:42 PM Flag

    amaretto;
    I agree Greece should be in the dumps, but ECB has bought it some more time. It will come up again if EU doesn't see a big recovery soon.

    More immediate for me is that old saying about the summer market: Sell in May and go away! I'm hoping the 2014 version isn't: Fly in July, and say goodbye!

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Expectations for Q2

    by ken_the_bum Jul 7, 2014 6:13 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 10, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Just a note: My trading site (think-or-swim) is now showing Q2 earnings coming out after the market close on August 5th.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Jul 9, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    We're closing in on 1 month without any PR or headline from the company. This has got to be close to a maximum quiet period for them. We're overdue for some kind of headline before next months 10-Q comes around. Let's hope it's a big positive one.

    -the bum

  • Reply to

    Expectations for Q2

    by ken_the_bum Jul 7, 2014 6:13 PM
    ken_the_bum ken_the_bum Jul 8, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    I should add an opinion of mine to this post particularly for big downer days like today.

    My opinion is that because Cyan's revenue and growth are dependent on corporation capex spending and not consumer demand; Cyan is little exposed to a downturn in consumer spending. Cyan's growth arises from general market trends in providing more digital info and entertainment on demand to consumers. IMO, market trends of more audio and video in all forms being transmitted digitally over the internet and cloud will continue regardless of an economic downturn. Carriers are in a catch-up mode faced with upgrading their old overloaded direct switching systems or upgrading to an SDN system that allows them future growth. This should continue regardless of a temporary downturn in the general economy. Therefore, I expect CYNI will react somewhat with the market as it is doing today, but I'm expecting Cyan to fair better than the market in a big correction downward.

    -the bum

  • Why? That is the only way to get a message across to a mindless CEO that his stupid political views are his alone and should not be used to ban books, which went out in the 50-60's. Hey, I think Hitler used book-banning effectively during #$%$ Germany if I remember history.

    So long Costco, hello Sams. I can't even say it's been fun.

    -the bum

  • ken_the_bum by ken_the_bum Jul 7, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    Cyan's Q2 ended last week; and unlike previous quarters, we have no revenue projection warnings nor enhancements in the news. If this year is the same as 2013, I'm guessing Cyan's Q2 report will come out Tuesday August 5th and they will announce the exact date on or before July 15. So here's where we stand right now as far as projections for Q2:

    From Q1 report on May 6: Q2 revenue guidance is $21M-$23M, which is roughly 10-20% higher than the $19M realized in Q1. And following last years debacle with missed revenue projections, we can expect Q2 numbers to come in at the high end since they are being very conservative now on projections as evidenced by Q1 numbers.

    Also from the Q1 report: CFO Jeff Ross explained reasons for the high ~$15M cash burn and commented that Q2 cash burn would be “significantly less” than Q1. I'm guessing at a number between $8M-10M.

    And from the JPMorgan Conference on May 19th: With Q2 half over, a general comment was made by CEO Floyd that numbers were coming in as expected.

    So for me, the three numbers to watch will be Q2 cash burn (significantly less), Q2 revenue (at high end of range), and Q3 revenue projection. If Q3 continues anywhere close to this 20% Q-over-Q revenue growth we've been seeing, that will dwarf a lot of current negative numbers and a history of missed expectations for this company.
    JMHO
    -the bum

GTAT
13.74-0.49(-3.44%)Jul 29 3:59 PMEDT

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