Definitely an overreaction. Plus I would say a bunch of those 4.7M shares traded so far are folks shorting this stock. There were only 600K of shorts coming into today – not many for an OS of 25M. I reach this conclusion after observing how this stock is now coming off the bottom with a vengence. It'll be interesting to see it heading into the close when the daytraders realize the bottom is in and the sp is recovering.
What happened! Yesterday, we're on our way to $5, and today we're back to $3.4. So much for the upgrade. So what did I do? -- had to buy some more.
The short term price of WILN stock will most likely be determined by next Wednesday's (Nov 6) premarket earnings report; but ultimately the sp and the worth of the company will determined by whatever strategic option the company arranges. And that worth will ultimately be determined by some other company or corporate entity that can better assess the value of WiLAN's patents and license agreements better that the public market.
Doing some quick dd on this stock over the last week, I have found that management has long held the believe that the stock market was not accurately determining the worth of their patent portfolio. The high dividend payout was a method the company employed with some earnings/cash to help establish stock worth in a way that the normal investor understands. At 12 cents annual dividend and $3 sp, that's a 4% annual payout. Wow, 4% for a company with fairly stable revenue and cash flow. It's no wonder management is frustrated with the current sp and has undertaken looking for strategic options.
So, we're going to find out soon what other companies think of WiLAN's enterprise value. Some looking at acquisition or partnership might be current licensees of WiLan. They are much more knowledgeable in assessing the true worth of that extensive patent portfolio. Oh, and don't forget that net cash horde of $120M has a lot of value to any company short on liquidity right now.
I'm still looking for a minimum sp of $4 for this stock and probably $5 max. However, I'll be pleasantly surprised if it is higher. But at least I now understand management's frustration with market value, and appreciate their efforts to maximize shareholder value – of which I am one now.
That phrase is just another way of saying don't be too greedy.
So with repect to WILN, pick an sp where you think this company is fairly priced. It's hard to do with this company & it's business, but my estimate is between $4 to $5. Then when the sp gets there, sell and take your profit. Or another way of saying it is: Kiss it on both cheeks and let the next guy make some money.
I've held quite a few stocks in the past that announce they will seek a strategic alternative; and normally the stock plunges on the announcement since it almost always has negative connotations on the value of the stock and the company. I would estimate that I've seen the stock respond positively to an announcement only about 1-out-of-10 times. This is that ONE. It's no wonder that WILN's sp is going up today since IMO the company nailed the understanding of the low sp in the announcement. It is difficult for the average investor to understand the value of this company since it does not produce any goods or services but still has substantial, consistent revenues; and pays a dividend. But that is what patents and licensing is exactly all about. However, I for one (and most others) don't know how to value those patents. So in a market where other companies are now looking at some “strategic” dealing with WiLAN, I think we're going to find out that there is a lot more value to WiLAN's patents and it's cash horde than the current share price and market cap reflects. Oh, that's exactly what the pr says today.
"The Company strongly believes in its current business strategy but does not believe that its current share price accurately reflects its strong balance sheet, the value of its signed license agreements, its business prospects or the residual value of its broad intellectual property portfolio."
I agree 100%
Opps; forget todays volume estimate. I didn't notice the 100+K volume pickup when we dropped below $3. Today's volume looks like we'll end up between 400-500K. The same conclusion is made: sellers are not quite done yet.
I've been watching this stock climb out of last Thursday's hole, to see if sellers were done with their panic over the Apple courtcase lose. But the trading volume illustrates that they are not quite done yet. This stock routinely has volume below 100K per day, and the following shows the daily volumes for the last 3 days:
Thursday 10/24 - 2,905K
Friday 10/25 - 678K
Monday 10/28 - 315K
Tuesday 10/29 - ~250K (estimate)
So volume indicates that shares are still being sold at higher volumes than normal. And this stock does not have much short interest to help with a rebound. Therefore IMO the shareprice cannot make a sustained recovery until sellers are done and daily volume drops to ~100K and less. Then we'll see where the post-panic sp will really be.
I was encouraged by the fact that the company came out right away after the news of the verdict against their claim, and announced that revenue guidance for the coming Q and whole Y were still the same as stated or even slightly higher. They understood the negative impact that the news would have and tried to calm investors. I for one appreciate their effort and therefore had to pick up another 10K shares today down near $3. I'm still anticipating a recovery back to near $4 when the dust settles and the company gives us a full Q report.
If you're new to WiLAN like I am as of this morning; you're probably trying to catch up on exactly what this company does and how it gets revenues. May I suggest your dd definitely include the Seeking Alpha article from Oct 22. It is obviously written by a WILN long, but it does give an excellent look at the history on this company and it's current business.
When I bought this morning, I was hoping for a quick rebound because yesterday's news and today's financial update just did not seem to warrant the 25% drop in the stock price. Because the WILN short interest is very low, I'm not sure a quick rebound is in the cards for this stock (greedy shorts covering on a big plunge always help the ensuing rebound bounce). However, after doing more dd on this company, I'm not in any hurry to sell this morning's stash of shares. I think I'll just stay here for a couple Q reports which the company just clued us in on what they would be. I'm looking for a return to $4 in the next couple months; and additional news & guidance should determine the direction from there.
My average this morning is $2.95; and if it should get down there again, I'll double down on the share count. My basic question for the old timers here: Is this plunge caused by the lawsuit loss or that the company reaffiirmed their prior guidance thru the rest of the year and shareholders were looking for more? Otherwise, I see nothing that this company is doing wrong.
Q3 ended Sept 30 and Shutdown started Oct 1st. So how did the shutdown impact B&D in Q3? Nice try but you need to have facts before making foolish implications. Here in Albuquerque, Harbor Freight negatively impacts SWK more than any DC shutdown can or did.
Spoken like a true short. In fact this board seems to be taken over by shorts trying to scare out every dime they can from the longs. I was a buyer at COB today and will be at the open tomorrow. The company responded that the bk rumor was false, which no doubt was started by a short. The short starting the rumor can't be sued; but the company can for purposely making false statements. Therefore my bet is on JCP in the short term for a small rebound back to $8, then we'll need a Q report to move further in the long term.
Count me in. The 40% price drop is way overdone. IMO we recover half of it right away and get back to $4. Then we hold for the Q3 report to see where we go from there.
I see the volume is dropping back to normal. After hitting 1.45M on Monday with news of the stock offering, we reached 0.87M on Tuesday, and we're on par to hit about 0.5M today. Normal volume is 0.15M. IMO this is a good sign that the panic-selling, knee-jerk reaction to the offering prospectus is subsiding and some clearer analysis and evaluation should follow.
Of course, a stock offering immediately implies two negatives to stock value: 1) the company needs to raise cash and 2) there will be dilution of existing shareholders. However the main aspect of this prospectus for me is the fact that there are no shares immediately for sale, just the statement that shares will be offered in the future to raise $15M and they will be reported by supplements to this prospectus. Therefore, this prospectus is just a notice of future dilution and the company can time their share offerings to maximize price per share (and subsequently minimize the dilution). The $15M is not necessarily being raised at $3.0 per share as today's price infers.
So I'm new to this stock; and doing my dd, I came across the webcast of the shareholder meeting last month. This is a must see for anyone owning or buying this stock. I was left with the impression that the USSI seismic sensor is the right product for a big market; however getting the sensors & systems to market is just taking longer than expected. So much so that CEO Moore is going to quit giving dates or schedules for when he thinks tasks will be complete.
So IMO the drop this week is way way overdone and volume returning back to normal should allow the price to make a significant recovery back to $4-$5 range. Add to that a 25% short interest that might consider $3 as a good point to cover with a nice profit.
Youall on this thread are kidding, right? If you're not willing to do your dd, than you shouldn't be in the market. The prospectus is right there in front of you. On the company website go to “Investor Relations' and then “SEC Filings”. It's at the top of the list – dated 10/7/2013. I'd post a link but the Yahoo's that run this mb won't let me.
Oh BTW, that's me buying 10K blocks down here at $3.10 & below, and I'll continue until I run out of risk money. To me, the response to the offering has been way overdone. And on the longer term, I'm still trying to figure out where all their products rate in their respective markets. My suspicion is that this money is directed at some opportunity that has turned up recently and it might not necessarily be associated with the stated purpose: “to use the net proceeds from this offering primarily to provide working capital for the development of USSI and for other general corporate purposes.” Impairment charges from writing down goodwill does not burn cash.
You are correct, the company should be worth more if nothing else had changed. However, the fact that they first told us they would not need to raise more cash, combined with the yearend liquidity projection going down by $200M; has reflected poorly on JCP's business prospects and management credibility. Is that enough to negate the $900M cash raise? The market will tell us here in the next month.
Ceiling! Probably not going much higher than $10 for the near future. What folks are buying into is a lot of debt, with the remote possibility of a good Christmas season. Otherwise it's money down the drain. Lot of risk there. IMO they're lucky to be get $9.65 in light of some of the lies they've been stating during the last Q.