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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

kenpalley2000 246 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Dec 16, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Watch for breakout

    by ciaxgbby May 27, 2015 10:47 AM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 4 hours ago Flag

    I suspect you are being a bit overly optimistic. . The share price has been limping along and will continue unless the dividend is increased. The effect, as far as I can tell of inclusion in the RMZ has so far been virtually undetectable. No price or volume pop. Perhaps once actually included things will get livelier, I hope so. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Last distribution declaration

    by kenpalley2000 May 25, 2015 4:45 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 25, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    OK, I finally found the press release.

    The Trustees of Mesabi Trust (MSB) have determined that no distribution will be declared in April 2015 with respect to Units of Beneficial Interest of Mesabi Trust.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kenpalley2000 by kenpalley2000 May 25, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Have I missed something or has there been a declaration since January? The company website does not show, as far as I can find, a declaration..distribution,,ex date chart. Thanks in advance,.

    Ken

  • kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 25, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    ceo,
    The share price is determined by market sentiment not the true underlying value of the company or the certainty of its dividend. However, and this is a BIG however, the market sentiment is often the result of a lot of different players seeing some underlying weakness that we longs do not see. My current reading of the earnings is that they have enough CAD or FCF or whatever you want to call it to maintain the current dividend for the next few quarters, and if they do the share price SHOULD rise. However, dividend yields this high are almost always an indication of higher than average risk. So, if your risk tolerance is low this is NOT the stock for you. I would certainly feel a lot more comfortable seeing the price back up to at least 25 but I fear that won't happen any time soon. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Price drop?

    by arizona_guy77 May 22, 2015 11:05 AM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 22, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Silver preicted to go lower plus a decrease in the dividend to only $.05. That's.gotta hurt.

  • kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 22, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    Welcome to the club. I've made a lot of money flipping it but now it took a huge dump from a few weeks ago and I'm stuck with 4000 shares I raelly just wanted to flip. OTOH I'm making 10% while I wait so it could be worse. I think anything under 11 is a great buy. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Credit PAA

    by ca_cowboy_fan May 22, 2015 12:39 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 22, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    I live in Santa Barbara and am not anti-oil. I have a lot of money invested in other oil companies and pipeline companies. However, as has been noted in the LA Times PAA has got a very poor record here and has been fined repeatedly. This spill could have been detected a lot sooner if they had sudden pressure loss monitoring equipment installed and working properly. Yes accidents happen, and yes PAA is now taking a responsible position but an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Rest assured that there will be lawsuits and a request for compensation and it will be many millions. This happened at particularly bad time ( just before the start of the Memorial Day summer tourist season) and will cost the local economy which is very tourist based quite a bit. I am hoping that PAA takes the high road and that this spill turns out to be less catastrophic than many fear.

  • Reply to

    Is the dilution a good move for the future?

    by jcrimminsusa8 May 22, 2015 11:24 AM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 22, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    I disagree that dilution is never a good thing. If increasing the number of shares by 3% frees up enough money to invest and add 5% to CAD then it was a good thing. I do not know enough about current plans to decide how good or bad this move is but judging by managements past actions they seem to know what they are doing. If you don't feel the same way then why are you in this stock?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 20, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    I am not selling and would be a buyer at these prices if I weren't way over position max already but I am revising my guestimate for 2015. I no longer think we will see 12-15/share. I now think we will stay in the 10-13 dollar range for the rest of 2015. Of course if the dividend gets cut all bets are off and we could easily revisit old lows of mid 8s or less. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    16M Offering

    by blackcrow78888 May 18, 2015 4:54 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 19, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Definitely has not been a happy ride for the past year or two. OTOH still pays a nice dividend, the volatility makes it a great stock to follow closely and flip trade with many intra-day opportunities to make 50 cents or more per share. I think management has done as good of a job as possible under difficult pricing conditions and that the dividend will NOT be cut this year. Anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen in 2016 is deluding themselves. My own bet is that the dividend will NOT be cut in 2016 either in which case buying now at a 10% plus dividend is a risky but worthwhile investment. However, each to their own and "ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances"! GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How Long Before Oil Hits $100 a Barrel?

    by plannterspenut May 11, 2015 8:33 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 18, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    As we use more alternative forms of energy, as gasoline and diesel powered cars get more fuel efficient, and as the world economies fluctuates wildly I seriously doubt oil will hit $100/barrel any time soon. Demand for oil will no doubt continue to creep upward for a while until solar, wind, nuclear, conservation etc get a lot more significant but supply will counter balance that upward demand, IMHO. I suspect oil will stay where it is for the rest of the year and into 2016 fluctuating between $50-$70/barrel. LINN/LNCO will muddle through via efficient production, hedges, some expansion and I doubt we will see the dividend cut any time soon nor the share price go over $13-$14 nor much below $11. Just hang in there and collect the current 10% dividend and watch out for black swans. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    APTS target: $13 per share by Dec 2015

    by ceo_expert Mar 10, 2015 6:10 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 18, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    New all time high. Arriba arriba!

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 15, 2015 5:52 AM Flag

    The distribution will be payable May 14, 2015, to unitholders of record as of the close of business on May 11, 2015.

  • Reply to

    Buy more LNCO now...

    by yuli_robinct May 6, 2015 2:37 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 6, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    Must obey, must obey. Bought 4000 at $12.10. Worst case scenario will collect dividends but hard to imagine not seeing $13 within 2 months, probably a lot less time than that. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I suspect a short attack

    by kenpalley2000 May 4, 2015 2:21 PM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 5, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    tomdurkins,
    Kinda hard for me to imagine that that 1 cent increase changed anyone's mind. I can get almost as high a yield from a CD as TRN pays. Hard to imagine anyone owning TRN for the puny dividend. Unless you think that the dividend increase is an indicator of a strong balance sheet, which I suppose it is to some extent. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    dividend from 15 cents to 18 cents in 2 years

    by kenpalley2000 May 1, 2015 11:30 AM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 4, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    Earnings solid. Dividend increase easily sustainable.

    AFFO, for first quarter 2015 of $4,940,346, or $0.22 per share, compared with AFFO for first quarter 2014 of $3,060,633, or $0.20 per share. This represents an increase of approximately 61.4% in AFFO and an increase of 10.0% in AFFO per share.

    Good luck all Buy if it drops much more.

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kenpalley2000 by kenpalley2000 May 4, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Lawsuits, DOJ investigation etc all perfect cover for the hedgies. Nothing to do but wait patiently for it to blow over. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 4, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    I had thought that $30 today was a possibility but in light of the fact that we dropped back down from 29.40 or so so quickly and are now up less than the NASDAQ itself makes me suspect it will be a much slower recovery than I'd hoped for. Time is on our side IMHO. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kenpalley2000 by kenpalley2000 May 2, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    04/30/2015 10.73 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0162 0.0162 Not great, steady and safe.

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Feeling a lot better about today's TRN action.

    by wvwvwv12399 May 1, 2015 11:23 AM
    kenpalley2000 kenpalley2000 May 2, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    The issue at hand is that DOJ is investigating to see if there was some sort of illegal collusion between TRN and the regulatory agency and its tests and/or testers. None of us on this board have that answer and although we certainly hope the answer is resolved quickly in favor of TRN having been honest and diligent throughout only after the investigation is complete will we know. The lawsuits are most certainly BS, however, these vultures are lining up in advance in case the DOJ does find some wrongdoing. GLL

    Ken

    Sentiment: Hold

LINE
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