It's clear that mobile phones/ipad will kill Nintendo eventually. The ONLY advantage Nintendo has is that its device(s) have a dedicated control pad. I don't care how good a game looks, it is a nightmare to control on a tablet or smartphone.
I am not sure how the manufacturers of these devices will fix this distinct problem but rest assured it is in the works. Once this problem is solved, there will be zero reason to own a Nintendo portable device because the only developer producing games for it will be Nintendo itself.
Final nail in the coffin will be soon.
Nintendo's has 2 choices....develop software for competing devices (which goes against everything they have stood by since 1985) or promote their own handheld with only Nintendo produced games.
Option 1 is the only viable solution. And it is coming.
It has to drop...once you realize that what is happening has to happen, the fear will subside.
$39.99 starting point when the full extent of the global economic collapse is finally realized.
Meanwhile the movies are packed every weekend and restaurants packed with clueless people who can't see the carnage we are covering up with IOU's.
Prepare for the worst and you won't be prepared enough.
Based on earnings and projections we whould be PE 12...or a price of $41.67.
And with this market that might be a little to optimistic.
No real question here. Only a matter of time.
I see your point.
The problem with the market is that whatever disposable investment money people have is all being jammed into the stock market which is causing the 70% increase in 4 months.
Money is not flowing into the usual investments such as real estate, CD's, Savings Accounts. Real estate is a loser and interest rates on CD's are lucky to be 1%. This is causing an artificial bubble in the market and just as any and all bubbles have suffered the same fate it will burst.
If I have $50,000 now...I can buy 1000 shares of NS (assuming $50 price) and zero cash. Or I can wait until $40 and have the same amount of shares and 10K in my pocket.
I strongly believe that the market is going to burst and NS will fall to $40 or below with no sweat. When the fed is forced to raise interest rates this will happen rapidly. There probably is more upside at this point, but I don't really think that it is worth the risk and stress at this level.
I believe that the buy, hold and collect distributions at this level will not out weigh the wait and buy later strategy.
I will wait.
Is anybody really fooled by this jobless recovery where 30% of homeowners are underwater and rising? Fed ordering printers to print bonds that have no hope of being paid back ever.
The only reason the market is rising (and yes, NS is part of that market) is because interest rates are zero and nobody is putting their money in savings accounts or CD's because of greed again. The current stock market recovery is just another bubble based on deteriorating fundamentals or I would say no fundamentals at all. Just everybody piling in and jumping on the band wagon because they just can't stand the idea of not making 10% or more. As before, when it crumbles, it will happen quickly.
Did I get out too early...yes admitedly so.
$39.99 will be the first buy point with averaging down likely. Time frame unknown...but time is coming.
If you say that it will not happen soon, you may be right...but eventually it will happen. We can both agree on that.
I will wait patiently.
I believe they have the best clothing selection of any store I have ever been to...I own 2 pairs of Robert Wayne shoes which are priced half of comparable shoes at Nordstroms or Aldos.
They have a unique clothing selection that I have not seen anywhere...I live near Chicago. Nordstroms and a smaller store called Metropark are the only 2 stores in the area that have a remotely similar selection and neither is as good or even close for that matter.
The two other stores pack Diesel, True Religion, etc. brands which can't hold a candle to Big Star & Division E which look better and are half the price.
I love the clothes, the store, the knowledgeable employees who are probably the best salespeople on the planet (they know how to sell and make you want to buy)....but I hate the stock at this price for the above reasons.
This is for all long term investors....if you want to trade this stock then disregard.
A share of BKE will be under $20 in the near future.
Yes, BKE is a great run company with stellar management. Yes, it is likely to keep doing well. But does your trading account become inflated everytime they sell a pair of Big Star Jeans or Division E thermal? Is there a wire transfer every time they sell a pair of Robert Wayne Shoes (awesome shoes by the way).
No, so stop focusing on sales and instead focus on the macro elements that are going to dictate where BKE the stock is going. Last I checked, that is all that should matter.
Stop talking back and forth about how great their SSS are doing compared to their competetors - useless. Their earnings have increased during a very difficult year in retail - useless.
The fact is that the economy is much worse now than it was a year ago when it seemed like the sky is falling. Unemployment is going up, and this false "recovery" is based on deficit spending that cannot ever be paid back. There is no recovery.
The stock market is being propped up by the fact that interest rates are 0% or near. Money is piling back into stocks not because we are in a recovery, but instead there is no way to make a return on your money any other place. So in essense, the stock market itself is in a bubble that has no fundamental basis other than greed of everybody tring to pile in. It is going to pop....and BKE along with every other stock in the universes is going to crash to levels thought unimaginable.
I can't say when this is going to happen. All I can say is that it is going to happen..everybody who pays any attention to what is going on knows this deep down inside.
If you want to trade BKE, good luck. It can be done. If you want to obsess about all the "fundamentals" and invest in BKE you are missing the big picture. You will get burnt. Plan accordingly.
LONG TERM value of a stock is a price somebody will pay at a specific future date for a share of BKE.
There is no way to calculate or predict that price.
Did you predict $13 last year? There is going to be a disconnect between the share price and what you "think" it is worth based on their earnings, SSS, growth, etc. If it was that easy to predict a future share price, the stock market would be finished.
Somebody has to lose money in the market for somebody to gain. Everybody thinks they have it figured out. Seems so simple, but the reality is that only a few make TONS of money on the backs of a majority of losers.
Don't try to predict the future price based on SSS and Earnings...you will be doing the same thing everybody else is doing that is also losing money.
Try a different approach. I have been exactly where your thinking process is and I have lost lots of money in the past in various companies. You can't make money thinking like everybody else. It's actually a very simple game, but your tactics are wrong.
Yes it does. The last I checked the value of a company was decided by the total value of the combined shares.
You are the reason that some people in the market get really rich, and people like you sell at huge losses.
BKE is not a $42 stock...last I checked it was $27. Stop making the mistake of trying to value the company by sales and profits.
The only thing that matters is what somebody will pay for it and today it is a $27 stock. $42 is a made up number and based on fundamentals that don't matter.
Throw that valuation out the window...the market decides the price. And the market does not care about earnings, SSS, or other...It only is concerned with the economy as a whole.
As the economy tanks, BKE will fall with everything else regardless of earnings, etc. We are clearly in a downtrend. Wait to buy.
but let's face it the DOW over 10K is unsustainable...BKE will drop when the overall market falls. A long cold winter is upon us and I see it falling more than a 1000 points.
Sales, Profit, Stores..etc don't really matter to the stock price. Everything was just fine with business when we hit $13.
Stop paying attention to the fundamentals...they are just fine and there really isn't any debate there. Nobody seems to be talking about the overall market outside of BKE. And that is going to determine where we go.
I see $19 before January 1. And that is what I am waiting for.
Anybody and everybody is selling because...of that ugly $13 52 Week low. It is undervalued here at $30, but anybody common sense knows that it can become much more undervalued. Did it deserve a $13 price tag? Got one anyways. And that is all that matters.
Buy under $20 after the market corrects. Insane price...yes....realistic...of course.
The bottom will have nothing to do with P/E, Sales, Margins, even profit, etc. Forget all of those things if you are trading and not investing this stock, which anybody on this board is by definition.
It will fall as far as it wants....13 possible again. Forget MM's...just fooling yourselves. Retail is going to correct...everything is going to get pulled lower. If you bought in the 30's and you are a trader, you will have to sell at a loss. Plain and simple. I would wait until 19 (minimum) to invest new money or average down if you have the time and patience. Going to be a rough few months ahead. I see the dow falling another 2000 points (at least) in the next few months...where does that leave BKE? About 19 and change...and a steal.