I finally got rid of my last bit of JDST last week around the 2.40 range, and obviously glad I did. Then I started selling JNUG as it is hard to not take a 15% daily profit. My last sale was yesterday at 150 and today I wake up to see 175. Unbelievable. Ended up buying some more (50 shares) at 170 in my taxable account, having finally sold GDXJ at just above breakeven (36) after about 3-4 years underwater. Missed a 20-point gain there as I could have bought at 150. Now in my 401k I have 200 shares of JNUG left, with a sell order for half at 180 and 100-share buy orders at 150, 130 and 110. Total gain since the Jan low in the 401k is 82k and currently 85% in cash. Also started gambling with JNUG in my Roth, which was at 20k in Jan and now 29k (70% cash) with 50 shares left.
Yes, but what happened to buy low, sell high? JDST is at all-time lows! I sold some myself today but that doesn't mean this can't pop tomorrow. It's a trader's stock, just like JNUG.
My observation from last year was that both of these ETFs have big swings, and that a 15% gain one day will often result in a 10% drop the next. So I started going in and out of JNUG during which time it dropped from $45 or so to $20 and I was getting pretty #$%$. But then the Fed raised rates and soon thereafter the miners reversed course while maintaining the same up-and-down volatility that made my trading game work. I decided to add JDST as (a) a form of insurance, and (b) a way to double-down on the in-and-out action (ie, I would buy JDST when selling JNUG and vice-versa). Of course, in hindsight I could have just focused on JNUG but I didn't know back then that this was going to be such a one-way train, given the past 4 years performance. Yes, I got badly burned in GDX and GDXJ a few years back. This time the direction was in my favor (I like to say I earned it :)) and I'm satisfied with my profits. The large daily gains allow me a measure of safety; at no point in time was I less than 75% cash in my 401k, but I've still racked up an overall 16% gain in the account since January which has *almost* made up for all the losses I sustained in it over the last 5 years. I need another 5% to break even, and a 15% or so gain by December to reach my goal for the year.
I really was planning on buying more at $3. But when it quickly dropped well below that I lost my nerve. Sold half of my position at 2.76, along with a third of my JNUG at 138. So now I have $5k of JDST and $27k of JNUG left. This ratio better reflects where I think this is going long term. To think I bought my cheapest chunk of JNUG at $25 or so! But have been buying and selling all the way up to this point. In my taxable account, some GDXJ I bought years ago is about to break even. I have a huge tax loss carryforward so I'm going to wait until that goes positive (@ $36), sell it all and then slowly get back in via more JNUG (hoping it will conveniently dip for me at that point :)). All this micromanaging is taking up a lot of my time. If only I had bet the farm when JNUG was $25 ... :). 401k has now increased from 351k to 424k since January, but I'm still a whopping 85% in cash and hopeful of reaching 500k by EOY.
Bought more at 5 and again at 4, while selling off some of my JNUG. I couldn't believe the JNUG jump from 70 to 120 in what seemed like an instant. I still have almost a 3:1 ratio between my JNUG and JDST and am expecting some sort of gold pullback soon. Would like to get back to a 4:1 or 5:1 ratio. Will be letting my remaining JNUG ride now and won't buy back unless it drops to 80. Would like to sell some JDST at 5 and 6, and plan to buy one last time at 3. Obviously if I hadn't fiddled with JDST I'd have made a lot more money; I considered it as insurance but in hindsight it's just limited my gains. It's still ok except that I feel that my "premium" is being gradually eroded via decay. I can't see how JDST is going to go up by the 50% or so that I need it to in order to realize some gains in it.
Not necessarily. My $70 and $75 sell orders kicked in for JNUG, along with a $6 buy order for JDST. I now have 45k in JNUG and 15k in JDST. Sell orders in @85 and 90 for JNUG and 8.50 for half my JDST. Will be adding a new one for the other half @7.25 or so. As long as we keep having these wild swings money can be made both ways. I'm making sure I always have more in JNUG than JDST. If JNUG blows past 90 I will still have more in JNUG than JDST but my volatility will reduce significantly. Using this strategy I've made about 55k on a 175k starting capital since January, never being less than 75% cash. It works out to about 1k profit per trading day on average. My target is to get to about 300k by EOY.
I am almost fully loaded at this point. Bought more @70 and 65. Perhaps one more purchase @60 and then I'm done (~25% of portfolio with 70% cash). Have sell orders @70, 75, 80 and 85. That'll be 2/3 of my investment, which I'll trade in and out if it keeps oscillating in the current range of 60s to 80s. Remaining 1/3 I will let ride in case it takes off. If it tanks much below 60 I'll be stuck. Surely gold cannot go down much more after 3 years in the wilderness, negative rates worldwide, Fed to stay put or reverse course (how can they raise now with everyone else cutting?) and immoral naked shorting by GS and cronies with seemingly infinite leverage?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
thanks for the insights and sorry for your losses. I am playing in my 401k, where I lost around 100k speculating about 3 years ago. Have now recovered about half of that using my current strategy, and the goal is to make another 100k from now by EOY. I will be quite upset if I lose from here, although as you say these ETFs are fraught with risk.
I'm currently in both in roughly equal amounts and hence going nowhere. Have a sell order on JNUG @85 (missed it this morning) and on JDST @9. Buy orders @65 and 6 respectively. Hoping for enough volatility that I can keep making 10-20% on each roundtrip trade. Of course I can easily get trapped if it takes off in one direction and I am holding the wrong ETF (which by definition I will). Haven't figured out an exit strategy for that scenario yet.
General guess is that gold will creep up for the remainder of the year which means I would be best off establishing a core position in JNUG and holding for the long term, then doing the in-and-out thingy on top of that with both ETFs. I would like to establish that core position between the 60 and 75 range if it gets there. Of course I have been burned in GDX and GDXJ in the past when I figured all this QE would surely be a plus for gold, which then tanked for 3 years straight. I severely underestimated the ability of the powers that be to manipulate the PM market, and they can very well do it again. Only this time my sense is they have run out of bullets (and credibility).
The good thing about these large moves is that one does not need to invest a huge percentage of one's capital. I intend to stay at least 75% in cash at a minimum. Also dabbling in FAZ (cost basis 48, next buy @40) in anticipation of a big crash as the dow has bounced back over 17000 for no good reason. My one long position is AAPL where I am still underwater, having bought at 130 and 94.
ok i'm in for 1300 @7.40. Also have about 11k worth of JNUG so either way it's a wash for me. However I have sell orders for JDST ~20% higher than current price, and for JNUG ~5% higher than current price. So I'm betting on a gold pullback in the short term, and have JNUG buy orders lined up at 60 and 55. I might buy one more chunk of JDST if it hits 6 (about 1500 shares) and then I'll be tapped out.
Just placed a limit order at 7.40. Let's see if it hits by EOD. I also have a position in JNUG of which half got sold today (had set a limit at 65 on a 58 purchase; now it's at 72 too bad but why complain when you made a profit?). Loving this whipsaw action.