mktdata1 is clearly a desperate short, who takes any piece of news and skews it to his advantage.
Elon said that there is no doubt that driving a battery powered vehicle is safer than one filled with flammable liquids. There is a level of safety that is acceptable. Of course there will be more Model S's that catch on fire, it is inevitable, but the level of risk is still quite acceptable.
My short position currently expired today (put options), and I will be looking for a new entry point to purchase more put options in the future. The short thesis is that TSLA is valued at nearly half the market cap of GM while being only a fraction of 1% in actual real market value. That is the short thesis. No one is actually saying that these cars are bad or dangerous, they are great cars. No one is saying TSLA won't be around 20 years from now. I think it will.
Your short thesis should be based on facts, not hocus pocus.
I think the strongest argument to condemn them is that gas bombs are accepted, and will not require further testing and regulatory approval. They are simply grandfathered in.
However, a new technology that comes out that is safer might still not get approval for absolutely INSANE reasons.
His point was that Lithium is HIGHLY reactive with water....
It should be a mineral oil cooling system, not H20.
If i didn't know you already OP I would have thought that you were promoting that site lol. I might check that out some day when I have the time!
not many people think Ackman's wrong though.... I was short months ago, but then went long when Icahn joined in.
There may have been a slow short squeeze, but certainly not the mother of all short squeezes.
I currently do not have a position in HLF, but if I did, it would be to short sell again. This is probably not going to go much higher than the previous highs it has made with all this extra risk.
nevermind, found it.
The batteries are prized in many advanced products for their high power and long life, but they have been a consistent source of problems across industries. Earlier this year, regulators grounded Boeing’s fleet of 787 Dreamliners after the batteries caught fire, and laptop computers and cellphones using the batteries have ignited when they became overheated or damaged.
“This is why you can’t just take cellphone batteries and string them together under the hood,” said Donald R. Sadoway, a professor of materials chemistry at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Cars are subject to different uses and abuses.”
The Tesla battery pack is configured as a long, flat slab on the bottom of the car, beneath the passenger compartment and protected by reinforced metal.
came out 1 hour ago
If I personally owned a TSLA right now I would seriously consider this strategy - for the short position that I currently own.
To be completely honest with you, I am hoping there are 5 model S fires tomorrow before close.....
Lets be realistic, with the amount of cars/batteries made, some of them WILL spontaneously burst into flames. You can get laptop battery fires. Companies have shut down entire EV programs due to battery fires. There will be fires.
But It is also still much safer than rolling around with a 70 liter gas bomb. The truth lies somewhere between both of your arguments.
Yes, some cars will burn up for little to no reason at all. But no, it is not a significant number and it will ultimately have very little impact on the business.
I am a short, but I am shorting for a variety of valuation reasons - not for a lack of great technology.
LOL that's how I think too! I'm so far north though the battery won't work in the cold, so I already said in another post I wouldn't be able to buy/find one to light on fire! lol.
But its tempting! I would make hundreds of thousands if this thing hit $120 :P (put options, expire tomorrow, just bought today)
For the amount of money I would make if there was one more fire, it would be almost worth it to start the fire myself!
But I don't think it will matter, see you at $130... tomorrow.
Thanks for the detailed analysis! Much appreciated!
I think I'm just going to hang on to them and see what happens then :P
When does the microsoft deal go through, and what happens to NOK stock and my NOK options specifically? They expire in January 2015 with a @2.00 strike price, purchased for $2.00.
This could explode higher. Against all odds and fundamentals, this stock seems to be moving higher. This is coming from a bear.
It should break $126 today.
LOL so right. Toronto is the tropics. I'm from Toronto, but live in Fort McMurray now. (NORTHERN Alberta)
Minus 40C is the norm here during winter.
When it gets UP to minus 20 it feels like a really nice warm day.
I have taken a cup of boiling hot water and thrown it in the air. Nothing but mist and ice hits the ground.
Yeah it was pretty clear to me that yesterday was a reversal day as well. HLF could see $52's again.
To be honest I'm not sure how much of this recent run up was a short squeeze and how much of it was caused by the FEAR of a short squeeze.
Takes Ackman's 20% off the table, he's not participating in any squeezes.