Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

I did a straddle of about 3:1 puts to calls, at $46 and $51 on wednesday last week. I could have gotten out on thursday or friday morning at a large profit, but didn't, and lost my total bet.

This was just for a small amount of money however :P And my long time holdings of DDD, which I sold for $44 recently, have made me quite a bit of money :P

Generally I will stay away from options if I am predicting short term movements. I don't think you can make an accurate prediction as to where DDD will be in 1 month. One or two days is MUCH easier. So is 6 months. (The direction will be up).

So, having said that, I wouldn't go ahead and make an options bet for something 1 month out of the money. The only reason why I played options last week on DDD was because of options expiry, and given the recent large volatility, I did not feel that the price of options accurately reflected the correct volatility premium that should be paid. In other words, very short term options on DDD (

I was wrong about the closing price, but right on every other prediction I made on DDD last week. I predicted a violent explosion downwards on friday. This happened. I also predicted it would touch $44 on thursday, which it did. And today is exactly what I had in mind. A run up to between 46.70 and 51 levels. $48.40 is pretty bang on if you ask me.

LOL yeah me too :P

The big dip near the end of the day is exactly what I was expecting but I was expecting it to continue downwards until close. The fact that it rebounded back to the resistance at the 46.70 level by EOD was incredibly bullish.

So my prediction for next week is definitely up. But I think one of two things can happen. We stabilize in this area between 46.70 and 51, or it overshoots to the high 50's, in which case we will see another pullback to around this region.

I highly doubt however that there is much downside potential, at least in the short term, below current levels.

Yes... I am thinking we will see a close of around $45 today... violent explosion downwards.

What are your thoughts? It could explode up as well but I doubt it....

pin at $900.

Honestly I think the only good advice on here was given by greymattermatters.

The other thing you can do is sell it all. Right now. You've made 7.5x your initial investment in 9 years. What will happen in the next 9 years if you hold?

I highly doubt you will see 750% gains here. So my advice is this. Sell now, and go diversify. Go and find stocks you think might be 750% winners. Check out ONVO, TSLA, etc....

Because of trading costs, fund management fees, paying out dividends (for FAZ), interest on leverage, and shorting costs.

FAZ will drop more than FAS rises when the market goes up and vice versa.

Because of trading costs, fund management fees, paying out dividends (for FAZ), interest on leverage, and shorting costs.

FAZ will drop more than FAS rises when the market goes up and vice versa.

Not every brokerage will allow you to short it. If you can short it, you can only short 1:1 because of SEC regulations on margining leveraged ETFs. The margin must be equal to the leverage is my understanding, so for my account I can margin 2:1, so I can only short this puppy 1:1.

Just get puts.

LOL yeah I wish I discovered this ETF 5 years ago. Of course, wouldn't have been able to understand exactly what it was back then... but I mean, even a year or two ago? The way this fund works is so obvious. There is no benefit to ever OWN FAZ or FAS. Whatever direction you think the market is heading, short the corresponding one. Or buy puts. I just hope FAZ and FAS continue the way they are operating for years to come. I will be a multi-millionaire within the year.

I mean..... FAZ will be super winner for sure tomorrow, black thursday for certain guaranteed!

You can't short FAZ on margin anywhere as per SEC regulations because it is already a 3x leveraged stock. Well, IB lets me margin it at like 1.1:1 or something marginal like that lol but that doesn't count.

So realistically if you're looking for big gains on FAZ the best way to play it is just to buy options. If you're looking to simulate an actual short position on margin, then look at in the money LEAPS around the $40 mark. Pretty safe bet there if you ask me.

I decided to go ahead and just pull the trigger on the straddle at $50. Didn't get the price I wanted, 95 cents per call.

My position is 3:1 puts to calls however. So in the $53 range I break even. In the $44 range I make so much I don't care. Well, I make so much, I don't care either way, but I think this one is going to work out one way or the other lol,.

Yes, I'm serious. I loaded up on more $46 put options with May expiration. So you know I'm putting my money where my mouth is on this one. DDD has a very violent and volatile history. When it fails to make higher highs, it is punished. When I saw yesterday's sell off, I bought $46 puts. When I saw it bounce of $50 5 times this morning, I tripled my stake in $46 puts.

Obviously I'm not a fortune teller, but I just feel the risk/reward is quite worth it. It is not showing bearish signs per-say, but rather over-exhaustion. And the likelihood of seeing sub $44 levels today, tomorrow, and/or Friday is a great reward considering you can nab these puts now for $0.50 each.

I'm a long time DDD bull and I think it will do well, but I've just seen so many violent downward movements for relatively little to no reason. It is in a phase right now where it is looking for a fair value and/or direction, but it can't find it. It is moving way too much, up and down. So by that logic, we very well might see $54 by Friday as well. I considered grabbing $50 or $51 calls as well to form a straddle, but I am just simply leaning to the downside on this one today.

Either way, I think the options are underpriced relative to the movement potential DDD will have in the next few days.

Yeah, but to be honest with you the crash isn't coming for a long time. There really isn't much to be worried about right now, aside from a healthy correction.

The US can print as much money as it wants. Inflation is caused from price increases in every day items. The money press is running full steam, but everyday citizens are NOT seeing this money. It is being used to drive corporate profits and keep stock markets propped. THAT is why we haven't seen inflation. Inflation is more correlated to wage increases than it is to the amount of money printed. Unless that money somehow ends up in peoples hands - which it won't.

Yeah I love that theory. It is incredibly possible. Although unlikely. But that is precisely what makes it a black swan.

I joke around on this board and support fred mui because I think its hilarious. But in reality, I am loading up the truck on FAZ put options, various expirations and strikes. I have done VERY well by doing this. But I am also worried about the black swan event. I don't like having so much of my money tied up in one sector and put options at that. To be very honest, most of my money has COME from FAZ put options. I simply haven't moved it out of them, just reinvested profits. Its coming to the point where I have to start diversifying my risk, but this reward just seems so great.

And the reason why I had an answer to that question is because I thought of a similar, although more realistic scenario - a healthy 10% pullback. What if that happens? Should I continue to invest in the style of puts on FAZ that I have been doing, but also get calls? Well, no, I decided that I am going to start investing a portion of my proceeds in FAS puts as insurance. I have yet to decide how much should go into FAS, what strikes, what expiration dates, etc.

Given the nature of pullbacks, they tend to be much quicker than the way the markets tend to gradually rise. That's why they're called crashes. So, I'm leaning towards a wealth preservation strategy specifically around FAS which involves put options, out of the money, and around a 1-3 month time frame.

It would be great so buy a 2 year leap and then just forget about it. But the most likely scenario is that the market will continue to rise, and then in 1 year's time, the strike would be so far out of the money it might not even be in the money once a crash does indeed occur. Possibly a rollover strategy is in order - Buy a 3 month X out of the money put, then with 2 months left to go, sell it, and buy another 3 month out of the money put at a strike price X amount out of the money as well.