Well I think I will hold out as long as possible. Only fear is that they suck the very limited liquidity right out of it and delist it on us even further. This happened to one other stock I own, Grupo Posadas. It still trades somewhere but doesn't even have a ticker symbol anymore. Happened to Grupo Modelo too. Still trades but something around a hunded shares a month.
I really wish they would stop trying to buy us out and just start trying to make us rich. There should be a Pizza Hut on every street corner in Brazil. If not Domino's will be there soon. Alsea is very dominant and they just opened their first two restaurants in Brazil.
Yes, They are issuing over a billion new shares at 8.45/share. What do they need to issue new shares for? They say proceeds will be used for general operating expenses. Glad I sold last week. Finally got one right.
I have owned YPF and/or Repsol for well over ten years and I have followed this somewhat closely but I am starting to try to look at what happened from another perspective. Imagine that the US Congress found out that Petro China was in talks to buy 57 percent of Exxon. What would the United States do? What if Argentina was fine with Repsol owning YPF but completely freaked out when they found out that Repsol was selling it to the Chinese? Remember Repsol sold all of their holdings in Brazil to the Chinese a year or two ago for 7 billion. This probably started to make the Argentinians very nervous. We can preach all we want but I doubt the US would allow Exxon or Chevron or Conoco to be sold to a Canadian company let alone a Russian or Chinese one. And the Chinese did try to buy a small oil company in the US several years ago and congress blocked it. Looking at it from this perspective, the Argentinans did the exact same thing that the US would do. The only problem is that they don't exactly have the money to pay for the 50 % they took. Still they could not allow it to be sold to the Chinese. Let's just be grateful they didn't take 100% of the company and see what happens. Say a prayer every night they choose to pay dividends. Remember they will be paying the majority of them to themselves now so they might be more willing to allow dividends.
If you look at how much Russia paid when it nationalized Yukos or when Venezuela nationalized CANTV or parts of Cemex, you will find your answer. Never what it is worth, and often nothing. I've been burnt by nationalization several times, it is just part of the risk of international investing. Brazil has pretty much nationalized PetroBras and Vale as well. They have ruined them over the last five years.
I agree. Vale is just one example. Sinopec is another. They have to import oil at a market price but they are forced to turn it into gas and sell it at a refulated price. Petrobras is the perfect example of what could happen to YPF. Petrobras was like a rocket until the government forced them to buy all of those reserves at a high price and then they force them to buy oil rigs that are made exclusively by Brazilian companies. They also use the company as a public employment/works project. Petrobras has been dead for the last five years and it won't be going anywhere again until profit is put before bloated employment. Worst case scenario all you have to do is look at Venezuela and Mexico. Countries just want to have control over their natural resources from now on, for better or worse.
Yah, so did RINO and a couple dozen other Chinese reverse merger stocks that are now trading for less than the price of a piece of licorice.
Never heard of it before but I agree it does look identical, except half the price. Point being there are a million of these and the only reason this one is not at two dollars a share was because of the buyout.
I do have some that have a PE less than one like CBEH but most like CVVT and GURE have a PE around 2. I figure that is where this will go without a buyout offer. Would you seriously pay 7 dollars a share for it today knowing that there are hundreds of other very similar reverse merger stocks with PE's between one and two. I am not shorting it. I bought in way too high and I was praying the buyout went through just so I could get out of one of these chinese reverse mergers with a little dignity and move on to something real. Looks like I will have a very long wait.
People are bailing because the average PE ratio of a chinese reverse merger stock in todays market is one or two. There are literally hundreds of Chinese reverse merger stocks with very low single digit PE's. Without the buyout offer this is a two dollar stock. It is no different that CVVT GURE CGA YONG CBEH CHNR LLEN LPH ONP SCEI SPU YONG BORN NEP CMFO CSKI CNGL. And those are the good ones. I won't even list the RINO's or the DYNP and all of the ones that are now on the pink sheets for pennys a share. Bottom line, without a buyout offer this is a two dollar stock in todays market. That is why I would have been happy with the 9.25 a share. You can buy a dozen other identical companies at a fourth of the price. Problem is when you have a huge oil company like BP at a PE of 6 and paying a dividend of 4 % why would you even touch one of these small obscure chinese reverse mergers unless you are already in and losing big or just buying a cheap lottery ticket.
Yes there are several stocks that I have had for more than ten years. Some probably close to twenty years. Telefonos de Mexico, Coca Cola Femsa, Telefonica, and a few others.
After getting burned on several Chinese stocks I think we can learn a few things from JKS's case:
1) At least we know that they actually do have a factory.
2) At least we know that they are actually producing something at the factory.
3)At least we know that they actually own the factory.
4)At least we know that there is actually someone in the factory that can be arrested and fined.
This is all a lot more than I can seem to find out about many of these Chinese companies. I think this should blow over soon, I hope. I doubled down. Glad it is not a significant amount of my portfolio.
Thank you. That made me laugh so hard I had tears. Somedays you just got to laugh and keep on keeping on.
Sounds like my kind of investing. I have made a lot over the years but it always seems to crash the minute I buy it. I am still sitting on some stuff 2o years later waiting to be right. I am kind of stubborn. Good luck to you.
Two buys, one overweight and one neutral all from the big brokerage firms today. Brazil finally dealt me a good deal today after a couple years of draught. TNE and BTM up big on consolidation. Now if I could just get PBR and VALE to get moving. Good luck to ARCO.