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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

kevinharrell86 109 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2015 10:26 AM Member since: Jul 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Watch it

    by trekyy Jul 24, 2015 9:54 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 24, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    You almost have to believe so. I mean have 10-11 PE on great growth is outrageous. Way too high, should be an 8-9 PE. For god sakes, who would put a sky high valuation on this pig like they have. Are they out of their minds. Complete idiots out there. Okay, now that the dripping sarcasm is out of the way.

    It might tank, but shouldnt. If it meets estimates it will be fine. The issue will be guidance. It is trading at a low multiple as analysts are not anticipating growth, or very small growth in 16 and beyond. They are looking at the black and white. What is vs what could be. Amazon gets a what could be valuation. Here that stockpile of cash does not provide any additional value, although we all know it can be used to purchase company. GILD appears to be very diligent in their acquisition search and have said they are very open to acquisitions, but dont get credit for that. So I think the numbers will be fine, but it is the guidance that I am looking forward too.

    I would say I could see a lift in the divi, but since it just began I dont think it will occur, but maybe a special divi as GILD is producing massive cash hoard. But if they take this down a bit further, I will probably add a few more hundred shares. I like the Company and like the Mgmt even more.

  • Reply to

    This is CRAMER FAV at 59? Can we arrest the #$%$

    by eejjww36 Jul 17, 2015 2:49 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 20, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    Now this post made me laugh all the way here in Dallas.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 17, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    That is my current feeling is that it will go down farther, thus the sell. I can afford to hold indefinitely and get divi. If there is a pop I will probably get out. I think bottom is 15ish. So as you can see the rating was for my near term expectations. Good question though. Thanks for allowing me to clarify position.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 17, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    This was a pig. Now it is a slaughtered pig. Maybe this is why IR was always so silent. I have held for a long time...I just dont see a rebound anytime soon. More oil is being added to supply without offshore. Could see this go down to 15

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Today's drop

    by gnasrall Jul 16, 2015 12:28 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 16, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    yes apparently they missed estimates although beating last year by 25% or so. I believe oversold for RPM. SHW would be a decent buy in the 235 region. Dropped to 250 but has recovered back to 260. Still may be okay here. As far as RPM, I think 45 gives you a PP with little downside risk. I am hoping it does not go there, but if it does, I could add a bit. Only have 1,150 shrs. Like the divi over 2%. 2.5 would be better, but keeping it over 2% is good.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Earnings/Investment

    by kevinharrell86 Jun 10, 2015 10:50 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 16, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    Agree...did not get the other shares...just watching this right now. Has been selling off for sometime it feels. Under 110. WOW. Not looking to be pushed out, but not hearing any news is concerning giving the movement of the stock.

  • Reply to

    What happened today?

    by typea1949 Jul 15, 2015 12:14 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 15, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    CFO retiring, but wont leave until a successor is found, so probably early 16

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 15, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    The acquisition dept is solid, hmmm. I dont know about that. Yes there are some great acquisitions made, but this is a result of an acquisition that the mess has occurred. I think there are some BIG lessons being learned and my cost a few their jobs (job loss is speculative). To do your DD you must get into some details...mini audit, especially to determine how acct measurements, etc are congruent or dissimilar in how treating returns, discounts, rebates, as well as potential liabilities. I have done this before on a smaller scale. Found lots of errors and valuation differences. Our mgmt backed down and didnt reduce buying price, but impacted how accounted for the company. Good thing for us we totally enveloped them into our systems and accounting team immediately. This is not always feasible and probably what happened. Not enough due diligence and someone in accounting mgmt started asking questions on the numbers and bam, discrepancy. Slow the horses...more digging and bam the Q is not ready to be released and they need to go back and review a bunch of contracts and how accounted for...just my guess. I think this is 95% a backward change and not really a forward impact, thus I still think there is huge potential for an upward pop when resolved and guidance is provided. Until then, the unknown will definitely keep the stock suppressed.

  • Reply to

    BOOM

    by kevinharrell86 Jul 14, 2015 12:24 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 15, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    $64 today....only 9.375% from $70. This is easily possible by Y/E given the buybacks. Loss ratio improvements would just speed this up. Stock is up 17.2% (excl divi's) from July 14, 2014. So trend is there to get to $70. Slow and steady.

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Jul 14, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    Another 52 wk high 63.74. Got to like it. Showing strength. I dont have too much 2500 shrs and 1000 wts. So looking good. I do expect this to continue to rise and should be tapping $70 on the front door by year-end (of course assumes mkt does not go the other way).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 14, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    WOW, you continue to try and scare people and you have zero INFO. It is all speculation on your part. They make money. The stock is fine. There are no lawyers circling and requesting plaintiffs, etc so there is not much going on. Relax, this will be a $50 stock soon, once the numbers are out. Just some cleanup at the companies they bought, unfortunately. There is no delisting...geez. A bad situation that is about to get better, that is all.

    Mingo, your continual spouting of bs without knowledge is almost comical. If you have sources, spout them otherwise you are pure speculation.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings/Investment

    by kevinharrell86 Jun 10, 2015 10:50 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 8, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Under $114. Thoughts from the community. May add another 200shrs here.

  • Reply to

    Is Ford a good buy now?

    by francia1722 Jul 8, 2015 10:38 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 8, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    I am in at $14.00 Have traded in the past. Basically holding for the divi right now. So yes I am making money. If it were to drop under 14.10 I would be tempted to add some more shares. Is only a very very small amount of my investments. I have 2,500 shrs. I would be comfortable doubling that at around $14.00. I do expect a positive 2nd half.

  • Reply to

    Is Ford a good buy now?

    by francia1722 Jul 8, 2015 10:38 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 8, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Last ex divi I see is Apr 29 so this qtr s/b near the end of July. so you can get in.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 7, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Would have been great to see RSI tops and bottoms... Quick look seems like strong upward moves are when RSI is 34-36. Currently at 45. I think it is a good place to get in now. May have some more downward slide, but I dont think too much. Low today would have been great. I got out recently at a bit higher and do still want in again. was my second In and Out trade. Both have been positive. Japan is nice and will have future rewards and allows GILD a bit more time to strategize and work on the pipeline. I think Greece is a not issue for GILD overall , but could impact in short-term, but with that said, I see a resolution as a positive and could provide a quick lift for the market as well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Jul 1, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    Based on Growth and 2016 EPS. 2015 shown on Yahoo at 4.74 and 2016 at 6.18. Current forward valuation at 6.18 is at 19x. Growth rate indicates +30% which can be used to approximate multiple. At 30x 6.18 you get $185 stock or over 50% gain from todays price. Is 30 multiple or 30% growth sustainable. Hmmm probably not but with all the pipeline, etc the forward should be more than 19. I think should be near 25 which gives you 155 or a 31% gain. This assumes they hit the numbers. There is risk, but the outstanding growth shown and pipeline strength mitigates the risk. Not a lot of opportunities in the market today for such a company. Just my quick thoughts. Do your own DD and as always, open to your thoughts/discussion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Pathetic volume today. Must be the holiday week

    by wineilli Jul 1, 2015 1:09 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 1, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Expect the scripts to be down when they come out next week. Could give you a couple dollar opportunity to buy. Just saying. I still have it a buy long-term, hold short term (due to holiday and general market). Think you could go near $110.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts attack is coming !

    by jay_invest70 Jun 25, 2015 2:30 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jun 25, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Citron is not going to stand by and let this hang at $100. I think Citron is wrong, but my feeling is they are going to hit it once or twice more to see if they can get towards their #. They may have bit off more than they can chew on this one.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jun 23, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Great analysis on why your price is 112.

    Negative: Possibly slowdown of HCV scripts. Hmm could happen due to competition, but not this year. Maybe late 2016, but like in 2017 if occurrs. To offset this, international is growing. Claims for use are being stalled, thus providing if you will a backlog of needs. So slowdown probably not going to occur for 2 yrs, if it does.

    Positives:
    - Huge buyback as you noted.
    - Massive Cash Flow and Cash On Hand to purchase companies
    - Pipeline is robust is several drugs in later test cycles. Would need to hit a triple or home run, but does not need to be a grand slam that we currently have.
    - Still leader in HIV
    - Oncology growing
    - PE is tiny compared to growth. Lower than many companies only growing 2%.
    - Pays a decent divi for such a high growth company.

    As you can see the huge cash flow that exists and will continue for at least 2 yrs provides massive massive massive opportunity. May not succeed, but the track record of management is not one I would discount. There has been zero reason enabled to discount them. This is a company you want to invest in. They are not priced to perfection. They are the opposite. They are priced to failure but have show know tendency to fail and have massive resources to succeed with several drugs in late stage trials. Hmmm, I guess that is why many are buying at this level. But hey that is just me.

  • Reply to

    ONLY TIME TO BEWARE is Lock-up expiration

    by arc0702 Jun 22, 2015 2:40 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jun 22, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Look near the bottom. 180 days

    Fitbit Inc Overview, Fitbit IPO 2015
    Company Name FITBIT INC
    Company Address 405 HOWARD STREETSAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105
    Company Phone 415-513-1000
    Company Website www.fitbit.com
    CEO James Park
    Employees (as of 3/31/2015) 579
    State of Inc –
    Fiscal Year End –
    Status Filed (5/7/2015)
    Proposed Symbol FIT
    Exchange New York Stock Exchange
    Fitbit Share Price 14.00-16.00
    Fitbit Shares Offered 29,850,000
    Offer Amount $549,240,000.00
    Total Expenses $4,900,000.00
    Shares Over Alloted 4,477,500
    Shareholder Shares Offered 7,462,500
    Shares Outstanding 29,850,000
    Lockup Period (days) 180
    Lockup Expiration –
    Quiet Period Expiration –
    CIK 0001447599

AIG
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