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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

kevinharrell86 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 4, 2014 4:58 PM Member since: Jul 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Is that an additional $2b in buybacks?

    by whbog Aug 4, 2014 4:33 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Aug 4, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    additional

    Sentiment: Buy

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Aug 4, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    operating income excl ILFC beat...there is your sign.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Aug 1, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Did you sell all your stocks? or just AIG...the whole market is backtracking so warning or not does not detract that this is NOT an AIG issue but a market issue. If it goes below 50, while BV going up, I will buy more and continue to do it with a smile. My divi stocks, although AIG could be higher (prefer buybacks), I am holding onto if their fundamentals are solid, which I believe AIG to be (I own at 28) and have held for what seems a long time. I did put all my 401k in Money Market 3 days ago (whew!). Stocks only 30% of non 401k portfolio now. How much you have in equities?

    The point if you can comprehend: This stock is currently valued too low and if the market takes it lower due to overall conditions, then it is time to load up. Obviously we should wait till conference call and earnings to see if that makes sense, but if it holds true...then load up and enjoy.

    Some insight on my perspective: I had company stock (not AIG) that was near high 30's I believe. 2008 hit and my oh my did I get creamed as it went down to 11 and change. Added significant additional shares and got out at 130 in 2013. So I am not worried about general overall conditions on "good" (my perception) stocks. Best case would have been to sell prior and then buy even more, but alas I cant time mkt highs/lows, just try and hold onto value and strength and over time I think Mr Market and me will be friends.

  • Reply to

    I bought AIG today

    by fabricone1 Jul 31, 2014 1:26 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 31, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    I like the Jan 16 50's at $6.85. I just think there maybe too much butthurt in the market yet, thus am holding off.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The so-called revenue miss is nothing more than a

    by gordon939 Jul 31, 2014 9:05 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 31, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Think it is uncertainly about the jackups and if there is any other exposure...I know it was a "one time" writeoff, but that is part of running a business and is operational, even if excluded from financial reporting operations. So that big hickey hurts...surprised we are not lower. Now IF there was a guarantee of no more "one-timers" then we should see a rise from here as backlog at record highs, the new platforms should all receive contracts. Looks good on its face, I just think there is uncertainty as mgmt never hinted at this impending writeoff so fund mgrs sell out if they cant trust mgmt to provide insight and drive appropriate expectations. Until the PR team truly improves, there will be a grey/black cloud over ESV. I have said it many times, but I cant go change things. Mgmt has to wake up to this. Otherwise they run a good operations. A small hole in the best damn can lead to disaster..

  • Reply to

    Earnings.....

    by closeoutville Jul 30, 2014 12:39 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 30, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    I think it really has to get closer to GAAP profitability before we see 40's. JMHO. 35 maybe...and momentum could in the coming weeks get us to touch 40, but not to truly be in the 40's and sustain.

  • Reply to

    OK I was wrong.... the new top is $26.14

    by cnlg1000 Jul 30, 2014 10:23 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 30, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    love that volatility. Ooops....Dont worry I am rarely right in the short term on price movements as well.

  • Reply to

    Disaster around the corner

    by scjohnson4047 Jul 30, 2014 10:07 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 30, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Maybe, Selling and buying lower is not stupid. Worrying about a lower overall mkt and moving to cash to protect. Okay may not maximize, but if in cash you are protecting. You can adjust spending to offset any inflation in the near term if you truly maintain a budget. So those were just two reasons to sell that are legit. Many more. Me. I am holding. Looking to add if it goes to the 40's as you noted. I think with the new platforms coming out in the next few years, increase activity in GOM most likely and other areas across the globe will result in SP moving higher. If you need the cash, get out. If you dont, hold on get the divi and enjoy in a couple years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Jul 29, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    So whatever, however choppy it was in June, we are seeing that sort of flatten out again, and do better in July. We are having the best July ever in the history of Las Vegas, and probably the best July in the history of Macau. //Wow, love this...July is rocking across the world//

    We are knocking -- I mean, we got a couple of nights left. We are pushing $50 million this month in Las Vegas. I never had a $50 million in July in my business career, 40 odd years in gaming. //SWEET//

    We want to be the first company to break through calendar year of over $0.5 billion of profit in Las Vegas, beginning to sound a little bit like Macau; and in order to do that, we have to do $37 million a month for the last six months of the year.

    Well if we hit $50 million in July, that $30 million -- we'd do that a couple of months, we won't even need December. I am dying to do this. All of us at the company, we are watching this kind of stuff by the day. I mean, we run the company long term, but we have such fun short term. Playing these kind of games and setting these weekly, monthly goals for ourselves. //acutely focused//

    Since 2011. This is going to be our best July, Carlo, and its really across the board. We are stabilizing on the VIP side. We are growing on the mass and slots and its going to be a great July. //Macau rocking it//

    Am glad you mentioned that. We are in construction on the whole south end of the original Wynn casino,adding two really spectacular spaces, introduce into the market for Chinese New Year, one year ahead of Cotai. We closed half of that casino months ago, and started a very expensive $60 million. In order to make sure that Wynn Macau could hold its head up against even Wynn Palace, we decided to do this really gorgeous thing, which we are going to show everybody for Chinese New Year in January, one year before the Wynn Palace opens up, .// Did these #'s with part of casino closed. WOW!!//

    Sentiment: Buy

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 29, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    So by bad you mean beating the estimated EPS easily, when there was a downturn in VIP customers due to regulatory #$%$ in China, where LV increased substantially over the prior year and where a company doing extremely well in Macau is readying itself to open Cotai in 2016...if by that kind of bad, then I am with you...geez, what can investors be thinking.

  • Reply to

    I am going to short more on the open! Easy trade!

    by cnlg1000 Jul 29, 2014 8:35 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 29, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    like I said volatility...this is purely a trading stock.

  • Reply to

    I am going to short more on the open! Easy trade!

    by cnlg1000 Jul 29, 2014 8:35 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 29, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    isnt volatility fun...now we are up!

  • Reply to

    Price

    by kevinharrell86 Jul 28, 2014 10:01 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 28, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Agree on the PR mgmt...I have professed that for years. Their PR is look what we have done, not truly supporting stock price. I feel they believe it is an equitable market, when we know good and well it is not always. Typically over time yes, but certainly can be manipulated for months at a time for sure. They do the fleet reports, but no interim position on buyback status etc. I would think this would be positive and could provide support for the stock or even attract additional buyers. I dont think increasing the divi does anything more for the stock. It is already one of the highest and is sustainable based on past metrics. Their PR is atrocious and I dont think it will change. If price goes to the 40's then this is most definitely a buy. Also my thoughts....on general mkt whether you care or not, is that there will be an overall 15%-20% decline in mkt sometime between Nov '14 to June '15.

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Jul 28, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Lowest in six weeks...will wait for earnings before considering adding more...I dont think there should be any surprises and still think there is value here, but ok with shrs I already own.

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Jul 25, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    AIG just dropped below 50DMA of 54.61. I dont make too much of this as price has been fairly flat, thus one move day can drop it. I think everyone is waiting on earnings while there is uneasiness in overall mkt and probably a little expense due to airlines (but I have no details on this). I would suspect that any cost on airlines was reserved as companies maintain reserves for unknown...may not have been fully reserved if these even were partly insured by AIG. I think a further drop into the 53's would be a good place to add a few more shrs. $52.71 is the 100DMA. May go long on some 2016 $50 options if it drops another $ or two.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 25, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    I think you will see this for the next 45-90 days, basically up to Oct unless something definitive in the mkt changes. There will be days of course momos get some support, but I think a move to safety and preservation while remaining in the mkt is likely. Holidays seems to lift the boats, so we shall see what happens then. I think it is important to maintain a pulse on the overall mkt. I do like AIG price right now with bottom support within 10% imho. So this is a hold. I did pare down my investment earlier from 4500 shrs to 2500 shrs and went to more cash which I think I might be heavy in at 58%. This is just more about safety right now.

  • Reply to

    Don't be fueled..........

    by closeoutville Jul 21, 2014 11:33 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 23, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    8-5 is earnings...moving up has to be good, well doesnt have to be, but is more likely.

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Jul 23, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Ups investment by 300%. Putting $30M in at price of $10.50 or thereabouts. Only guru really in the stock. Thus pushing the stock up today on the news. I would assume, but who knows that if you put that money in, you have a few discussions with Mgmt. Also income and revenue continues to rise. Looking for another good qtr.

  • Reply to

    Buy More Warrants?

    by superdave_15092003 Jul 21, 2014 3:32 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 22, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    I tried to buy on TD ameritrade earlier (several months ago), must have wrong ticker or something. Was not going to be much so didnt followup.

  • Reply to

    Just added 1000 at $29.60

    by cnlg1000 Jul 2, 2014 10:39 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Jul 2, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    OUCH!...no kidding. If you got in above $43, I think it will be a year at least till these guys show some real positive momentum on the bottom line. So could be a while, but I think gains from this point should be very good over the next year. So I dont know if I would sell out into something else.

AIG
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