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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

kevinharrell86 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 11:26 AM Member since: Jul 23, 2012
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  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Dec 23, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Per Pickens...if you believe in the Oracle do you load up at these lower prices in the majors and and producers. I think PSX will outperform as well. Rig counts will go down and an equilibrium will come back between supply and demand. Question is how quickly, when to step in as the market is forward looking (most of the time - although clearly not perfect). Thus is this an opportunity that is greater than other opportunities?

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 23, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Can you say lawsuit. Seems like everyone sues these days, and this might have some merit even in free enterprise, especially if brought by a class action of patients.

  • Reply to

    The Dividened

    by atb_phillyboy Dec 19, 2014 10:17 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 19, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    got mine mid-day

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 18, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    The floor is basically in, does not mean we will not have fluctuations. As long as production exceeds demand then the price will drop. It is a declining resource that technology has found a way to extract more of. Thus price drop. As time weeds out those that can stay in the game, the supply and demand will get closer and price will rise, probably between 70-80, but will take several months to get back there. I know I am not saying anything that everyone does not already know, but the question is if you have time to sustain this, then I recommend staying in the game on the oil companies. But agree with several posters that it can go lower, but my opinion is that it will not stay there for long as many producers can not be profitable there.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 18, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    was going to be my question, did we have a narrowing of the brent crude price?

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 18, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    only down 100 from the highs...yep they all have been duped!

  • Reply to

    Stock Split History

    by assgotreamedlong Nov 7, 2014 4:13 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 11, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Splitting is not in vogue as much as it used to be. Doesnt really change anything, and most buyers can still afford at this price. If heavily owned institutionally then really no need to do it.

  • kevinharrell86 by kevinharrell86 Dec 11, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Asbestos claims settled. SPHC will now be consolidated into financials. This adds $400M of sales with good op inc and cash flow. Yeah!!!

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 4, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    This is where you have to differentiate what lower gas prices impact? Maybe they buy more expensive food. Better cut of meat. They may make more frequent visits, dont know. I dont think it changes how much is consumed, but what is consumed. Think gas prices have to stay low for awhile to see this happen.

    Gas will be lower everywhere, so prices at the pump will not likely bring more customers to stores that have pumps. Where you fill up now is likely where you will fill up later. So to me the impact is not how much you buy (qty) but if you increase the quality and thus overall spend. Maybe you do buy a little more organic vegetables, or a higher cut of meat. But lower gas in and of itself I dont think brings more into the stores. What it can hurt is that maybe the extra money in ones pocket, they go out one more time a month and thus do not require supermarket food. Could have a different impact. Also cost for the company should be less as deliver costs are reduced. Question is how much of this savings is passed to the consumer and how much is retained in margins for the Company. Will be interesting. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    How pathetic.

    by cd3313 Dec 3, 2014 1:06 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Dec 3, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Hey long is relative. Just means you are not short. Duration can be very different and a 10% return very quickly is nice in a market of low interest rates or alternatives. So ya, 10% means a lot. Compound that 10% annually and it is huge. The risk though is you get out or conversely waiting for that low point and you miss the ride up. So as those try and minimize risk via trying to buy at absolute low or taking profits quickly in a volatile market, there is risk of missing a 40% gain.

    I think there is risk in pricing and until that is basically resolved you will see this stock have pullbacks from time to time. But big picture GILD is growing and should be a winner. How you want to play it will vary immensely based on ones internal fortitude, cash needs, emotions, and perceived other alternatives. GLTA. BTW I am adding another 150 shrs here at $100.00

  • Reply to

    Seadrill Divy Cut

    by mar0320 Nov 26, 2014 10:09 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 26, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Appreciate the girlish sentiment you provide towards me. Not withstanding your #$%$ attitude most tier 1 companies will communicate to support their stock price. Does not mean every whim. But the lack of communication is again a redundant theme that provides a perception that they may not be world class as the lack world class performance in their IR. So yes it does great a bit of worry.

    For their sake I hope they do not cut the divi or they will have a world of lawsuits. So I dont think they will, but would be the right thing to do to respond positively in light of the negative that is there that can drop share price more than 5% on really no news about ESV.

    Lesser people might sell on this drop and take a loss when maybe they shouldnt and I truly believe that a world class IR dept would have stepped up and made a quick statement. How effing hard is it. Yet people are selling and taking losses for no good reason.

    So yes, my original statement holds true in the hopes that the company should and will do more to move their entire operations towards world class. As CEO, that would be my objective.

  • Reply to

    Seadrill Divy Cut

    by mar0320 Nov 26, 2014 10:09 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 26, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    Dont worry management will come out and say something to calm the fears...oops nevermind, wrong company, they never act that way, you know the way that you might act with responsibility to shareholders...oh well. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will occur.

  • Reply to

    ESV now largest deep sea driller

    by _yimmie_ Nov 26, 2014 12:09 PM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 26, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    So best of the worst...yeah!

  • Reply to

    sold half my GILD this morning

    by ray_crucet Nov 24, 2014 10:10 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 24, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    DAL, has moved from $30 in recent weeks. Up almost 50% in a short period. What is price point to get out. Interested as low fuel costs are huge and airlines continue to increase fares as they keep routes tight and thus planes are full.

  • Reply to

    Can GILD announce a divy or something.

    by k1ltnow Nov 21, 2014 11:54 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 21, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    so added at 100.63 another 250 shrs

  • Reply to

    Paying dividends with borrowed money?

    by bend_it_like_buffett Nov 21, 2014 9:22 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 21, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    They have 5B of developments including Boston. Money is cheap right now. Borrow away, keep the divi and the stock up. This is simple and a non issue. The rewards will be great. They are not reducing the regular divi.

  • Reply to

    Can GILD announce a divy or something.

    by k1ltnow Nov 21, 2014 11:54 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 21, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Dont know when it will move, I just think it has great value here and that the downside risk is not that large unless the whole market takes a hit. But then it doesnt matter what you are in. So for me, this makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Can GILD announce a divy or something.

    by k1ltnow Nov 21, 2014 11:54 AM
    kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 21, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    growing too fast, need the cash to reinvest --- just a high level response --- did not look at the BS.

    If growth rate continues then it is way above the 2015 forward PE and this puppy should move towards $150. I will be adding today by the way, but my current position is kind of tiny. Only $25k. Will double that today. Was hoping for low to mid 98's, but think anywhere around here 100 is an opportunity.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 20, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    keep hearing 97 and change. Will buy near 98 if it gets there.

  • kevinharrell86 kevinharrell86 Nov 19, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    No, but the small float does allow for this to occur. Me, I am not in any of the others, and wish I was not in here, but is my only true speculative at this point. My reason was that they were a leader and I thought they could leverage their infrastructure. They have not to this point and thus this stock can be moved quickly due to the float. As you know irrational valuations occur all the time. The market is also forward looking. Many of the stocks you mentioned are leaders and expect to move to profits based on the "story". Doesnt mean they will.

    Regardless the question was how could FUEL drop 20% from recent highs. I think I provided a viable answer for this stock. I dont see it monetizing anytime soon and the low float will ensure that those that want to push the stock in different directions will have that opportunity.

    Also, Investors are never equal and stories are always different and unique at each company. Reason A may not apply to Company B even if Company A & B have similar financial results. We all know this.

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