the truth is often stark. The shareholder base here is moving from hope to glee to euphoria, to wonder as to why it does not go higher, to confoundment to disappointment, in the face of steady good news. Extrapolating dmatt's post, we have our little window here, who know how long but I will not buy till the gap closes. And I will keep buying at that level, whatever it is, 1.75 or whatever. 2014 gonna be a tremendous year methinks.
dmattingly62 Wednesday, 10/30/13 11:50:42 AM
Re: Tails post# 45052
Post # of 45101
Tails, you and I get it. Everyone thought financing would do it but not me. Now it's up listing. Lol. Sure, up listing would give us a great short term trade but then what. JohnB has also made good points. Un like some here are suggesting, there are plenty of brokerages that cover cheaper and un listed securities. I was invested in a .05 stock that got coverage. lol. There are also plenty of institutions that buy these stocks. As I have mentioned before, even the Baker brothers do. Our market capitalization is high for a single phase 1 drug and 0 other trials. Thats what people aren't getting. The good news is our high valuation is a testament to the high level of belief in Leo and especially Dr Menon. The other good news is that we don't necessarily need Kevetrin results although nothing could be better. As the 3 INDs get filed and as the additional trials get up and running share price will rise significantly. Phase 2 is an inflection point for biotechs where most of the value is created through establishing proof of concept. The market doesn't assign value to drugs that are not in trials. Even though Prurisol will be a phase 2/3 it hasn't seen the light of day yet. So the market gives it 0 value. And because of the PolyMedix fiasco, the market appears to be giving Brilacidin 0 value as well. Analysts, VC firms, whatever, when they value biotech they use rNPV which is essentially a discounted cash flow model on whatever drug is in trials. They do not value preclinical pipeline. Until we have INDs on P and B and real progress towards trials we do not break the highs and keep the gains, unless we get a partnership. The good news is that this all changes in the coming weeks. Now is the time to buy.
fairly shallow analysis if you ask me. In particular I love your odds paradigm. Profound and detailed. go short elsewhere.
was busy helping to shave off 16 million in attorney fees from the herd of wild dogs who sued google. been busy. 16 mil gone agreed upon fees, gone!
don't know, good question, but the little chiscams did it all the time. Seems regulatory to me. If we satisfy the requirements, and we will soon here by year end, can it be more than a hundred grand, max?
"exploring" partnership possibilities in 2014: "This gives our Company solid financial footing heading into 2014, a year which we are optimistic that we will be exploring partnering opportunities." We can now do all trials envisioned, and then some, plus consider a partnership from a position of strength, which is huge. All cashed up to move all three drugs to their next stage of development. Money no issue now. Let's see these trials play out. Not really dying to partner B except on favorable terms. We will have 6 different TRIALS IN 2014, minimum. Plus MD Anderson will also get moving. Kevetrin's MTD will unleash more than this....
ovorchin Sunday, 10/27/13 03:04:59 PM
Post # of 44727
i take the R & R information at face value. 6 participants on low dose of 20-30 mm/m2 were restaged. the nurse told me participants are restaged by mri's. that means the scans showed all 6 at the time of mri's showed no growth. SOME had disease progression after this. OTHERS did not. it was also stated that p21 expression was observed. dr menon has stated this is MOA (method of action - what causes the no growth).
i like to keep things simple. if 20 -30 mm/m2 of kevetrin (MOA) caused NO GROWTH then 50 should cause shrinkage. cohort 4 was dosed at 40 starting jun 4. that's jun, jul, aug, sept & oct.
now am i to believe nothing shrank further? that kevetrin is only good at NO GROWTH no matter how much higher the dose is?
i don't think so. this phase 1 was for both safety & EFFICACY. it says so on the NCI website. dr menon didn't expect to see signs of it until dose 100 mm/m2. that they see this much earlier is good news. i want to hear the further good news. cohort 4 has 5 months cohort 5 two. either this stuff works or it doesn't. they know. i am cocksure the news is good or cohort 6 would not have been escalated. kevetrin is not hurting anybody seriously even these people at death's door.
what i am concerned about now is that conference coming up. is there going to be another "quiet time"?
C, you make a good point. The thinking among shareholders has developed that since B is closer to monetization via partnership (presumably), once rescued from bankruptcy, that asset could then be used in part to obtain funds to further develop BOTH kevetrin and prurisol. It therefore follows that if B will be the asset to garner money via partnership, are we not wasting time doing a POC for B, and also are we not damaging the value of this asset? Agreed, therefore skip the POC. . B is further along and simply a better way for the company to get CASH NOW for all its compounds. Still, independent of this, and because Prurisol is safe, and if I owned the company, I would find a couple people in the 1.1 billion in india, or a relative or friend, since the condition affects almost 3% of the world's population, and I would give them the pills. If the condition goes away in a week or two, I would immediately cancel the POC trial. It is my understanding that the proof of concept pathway ends up degrading the asset and basically giving most of it away, for some cash now with a small but meaningful cut once it is approved. Still, we lose what, like 85% of the asset for a lousy 30 million bucks, and a 10 or 15% kicker of net sales. Seems to me only cash starved companies -- and most micro caps are cash starved -- are forced to give up most great discoveries. Anyway, Brilacidin to the rescue, I speculate. All of this mental theorizing means that there may be more reason to believe Prurisol is going to work in humans in a terrific way. I know I would absolutely, positively, give some of the pills to sufferers of the condition who were close to me, to see how it works. Once it see it works, that POC thing is history so fast...
I suppose B, but need a lot more information. I do not think this is the choice at all. The company now has the trials in their gunsights. I was only suggesting that the skipping of POC for B portends great things indeed. aka put yourself in our company's position: does P work in humans in any way it did clinically? Why did the company decide as they did, once THEY HAD THE PILLS FROM DR. REDDY? ....................i tink dey tried em out. Having seen the results, I tink they said screw giving this away via a poc; dat is for losers; we gotta keep 75% of this asset and let Pfizer, or somebody sell this 3 billion dollar annual market for us, for the other quarter. Share price for P alone: 75 bucks a share.
And Prurisol trial is now right around the corner. If this drug is anywhere near what it did with rats, Katy Bar the Door. And, now we have not given a huge chunk of this asset away with the POC pathway. That would have required giving away the vast bulk of the asset, in order to fund Kevetrin. I will bet some of the Dr. Reddy pills have come up missing. Need to know basis.
If I were CTIX management, my scenario basically requires we skip the POC, and screw the short term criticisms from retail. It is insanity not to do so. I know I would, and I would take the reason for the shift to my grave with me...
a few have commented about prurisol being "tried out" before the POC would have begun, "just to make sure." The scientists already know it is safe. One thing is missing, actual prurisol pills.
8/12/13 PR: “We are pleased to inform shareholders that we have now completed the regulatory matters necessary for a clinical study of Prurisol and that we have been notified by our contract manufacturer, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (RDY), that Prurisol is ready for shipping to the clinical site,” Leo Ehrlich, CEO at Cellceutix stated. “We are planning to have the drug shipped in August and the trial to commence shortly thereafter. The clinical site has been notified to begin patient recruitment. We are optimistic about the potential for Prurisol™ to reproduce the laboratory results which showed the drug to effectively eliminate all signs of psoriasis.”
India: almost half a billion people with psoriasis. We have the antidote, finally, in pill form. Do you think perhaps somebody sampled a couple pills? What the heck. CTIX: Why would we consider giving a huge chunk of this asset away with a 60 day POC study? Let's go right to PH2. It will save us time and money . After all, looks like we are going to score Brilacidin out of bankruptcy any day now.....
9/9/13 PR: " we have shifted our development strategy with our anti-psoriasis drug, Prurisol, to forego the planned Proof-of-Concept trial overseas and have already begun preparing the regulatory paperwork for the Food and Drug Administration to initiate a larger-scale, Phase 2/3 multi-center trial. The adjustment will save us hundreds of thousands of dollars and months of time that will now be better served to position us to potentially have up to five clinical trials ongoing in 2014. This acquisition dovetails very nicely in our goals to continue to build shareholder value......."
The POC path was a huge decision, where the company loses huge value ultimately. If we know the pills work, we are almost required to skip it.
Also Giz, I appreciate your thoughts per usual. Wonder if you or Chiny have followed the biology discussion over at ihub regarding p53, etc.............to me, it is like listening to a physicist at a public forum. Interesting.............. but who am I to judge or even have a remote opinion on or about, as there are a million considerations to consider, a million visions and revisions, that a minute will reverse.
Since they were the "Chosen One" by Elsevier they have a really good chance for a partnership.
I think I know the answer to this but please confirm that this will not take place, unfortunately. My sense is there is no meeting ground where people get offers for partnerships; sounds like wish fulfillment but not reality. No way there can be a track like this, right? I suppose you were being enthusiastic....
but I am insistent you Frank, this is very poor. I am poor. Always think and write and express in the active tense. I insist. you must think. The active declarative tense. Thoughts convey, language is. Dick runs, Jane does. We are direct. We do. things are. Read the elements of style. Strunk and White. genius. Cancer. Language cancer. So true.
hey frank, i am a serious jock. my x roomie was an nfl QB for 4 years, god bless him, but I am insistent you deploy more to CTIX. I know osir to the extent of my capabilities. When Charlie Mcbride sells, and he did several days ago, it is time to pay attention as Dr. mcbride has an excellent mind but a better one for investing., so I give him (cmbride) a wide birth and much respect. Do not need to invest in a grudge match street fight. But nothing I have seen or read tells me to change my opinion about Randy. I told charlie this in an email and he is terrific and here we arel, 2 months later, and he has sold. 400K shares. all of them. Respectfully, you are too close to osir. blah blah We at CTIX are nuclear material or anti matter compared to simple med products. no ifs or buts on that. Your professional experience might be a negative, just saying.................
kidding guys but bring her back alive. She is the Hot Chick, and a wonderful person but do not tell anybody.