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keybotthequant 572 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 11, 2013 11:00 AM Member since: Feb 24, 2011
  • Gold drops to the gap highlighted above at 1263-1266 completing the gap fill. Gold is coughing up 33 bucks today. This is it. This is the last chance for gold bulls. The whole enchilada. The last chance corral. Bounce or die time. Either gold recovers big from here or the path to 1200 is next.

    Chart adn technical analysis is found by using search box above for Keystone Speculator

  • We watched this chart late last week as the 36-ish printed signlaing a market top but the bulls have managed to jog the NYMO for a higher high print. All this does is more firmly place a top. The red circles show the market tops and green circles show market bottoms. The double circles are key reversals. What do you think will happen? Market bottoms occur when the NYMO drops under -40. The important mid-November bottom occurred at -90, once that hit it was a key indicator to use to feel comfortable buying the market long. Likewise the other green circles. Market tops are signaled when NYMO moves above the +30 or +40 level, however, the tops have gotten sloppy over the last months. Note that tops are now occurring from about +10 and higher. The central banker intervention creates distortions in all markets these days and may be the cause of tops occurring at lower NYMO levels.

    Nonetheless, at +43, a significant market top is occurring right now. A spurt higher occurred as compared to three days ago, and now there is very little ceiling height remaining for the NYMO. Projection is a market top is forming now and a reversal in the broad indexes should occur moving forward perhaps beginning tomorrow. SDS is attractive moving forward.

    For NYMO chart use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • keybotthequant by keybotthequant Apr 18, 2013 8:59 AM Flag

    AAPL has been moving within the falling wedge for 2013 thus far. A falling wedge is a bullish pattern with price typically breaking out to the upside with a strong spike higher. The red lines show positive divergence across the board that wants to see a bounce, however, the -6% drop yesterday created strong downside momo. Everyone and his bro is talking down Apple now when one-half year ago it could do no wrong. The cab driver told Keystone this morning that Apple is the worse stock in the market now. Folks were wrong at the top six months ago and the negative sentiment now likely indicates the time for a bottom and recovery.

    The RSI on the weekly chart is not yet oversold so there is likely some additional downside for Apple ahead on the weekly basis. The daily chart indicators show a preference for a sideways move going forward. The price action yesterday fills the gap from December 2011. Projection is a basing and bounce from these levels with a move back up to 425, however, the door remains open to a move back down to 380-ish after the bounce, then another recovery will follow. Overall, Apple should move through the 380-480 into the summer time and may develop into an attractive sideways trading range stock. Keystone opened a long trade yesterday but it is anticipated to be a short-lived trade looking for the bounce over the coming days.

    For Apple charts use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Markets are on the verge of a large sell off. There is zero fear and worry in the markets which spells trouble. The whole analysis is too lenghty to print here. SH is a strong buy. Here is a snippet,

    Will the question about complacency in the markets finally be put to rest? Clearly, traders have received the message loud and clear from the Fed and BOJ and they took Grandma Edna's and Aunt Nellie's entire life savings and placed it in the stock market over the last few days. The central bankers have told everyone that the equity markets will go up forever and there is no need to worry. May the Lord have mercy on their souls. The low CPC shows that it is about to end badly. Markets are not climbing a wall of worry, as the chart clearly shows, instead, the markets are climbing a wall of stimulus. A CPC under 0.7 indicates uber complacency, a complete lack of fear in the markets, zero worry. The central banker policies have created this mess. Very few traders are holding any shorts, in fact many die-hard short sellers threw in the towel today, completely giving up, throwing their arms up in disgust and swearing that they will never short the market ever again. Interestingly, this now increases the chances of a very strong move south, once it begins, since there will be very little short-covering, the markets may cascade lower taking out stops one after another.

    For CPC chart and technical analysis explaining the put/call use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Significant top is in place now. Analysis is too lengthy to post in its entirety. Strong buy for DXD. A snippet;

    Will the question about complacency in the markets finally be put to rest? Clearly, traders have received the message loud and clear from the Fed and BOJ and they took Grandma Edna's and Aunt Nellie's entire life savings and placed it in the stock market over the last few days. The central bankers have told everyone that the equity markets will go up forever and there is no need to worry. May the Lord have mercy on their souls. The low CPC shows that it is about to end badly. Markets are not climbing a wall of worry, as the chart clearly shows, instead, the markets are climbing a wall of stimulus. A CPC under 0.7 indicates uber complacency, a complete lack of fear in the markets, zero worry. The central banker policies have created this mess. Very few traders are holding any shorts, in fact many die-hard short sellers threw in the towel today, completely giving up, throwing their arms up in disgust and swearing that they will never short the market ever again. Interestingly, this now increases the chances of a very strong move south, once it begins, since there will be very little short-covering, the markets may cascade lower taking out stops one after another.

    For CPC chart and complete technical analysis use search box for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The technical analysis is too long to post in its entirety but a sell off is to begin at any time and should be about 100 SPX handles or more. Be very afraid. Here is a snippet;

    Will the question about complacency in the markets finally be put to rest? Clearly, traders have received the message loud and clear from the Fed and BOJ and they took Grandma Edna's and Aunt Nellie's entire life savings and placed it in the stock market over the last few days. The central bankers have told everyone that the equity markets will go up forever and there is no need to worry. May the Lord have mercy on their souls. The low CPC shows that it is about to end badly. Markets are not climbing a wall of worry, as the chart clearly shows, instead, the markets are climbing a wall of stimulus. A CPC under 0.7 indicates uber complacency, a complete lack of fear in the markets, zero worry. The central banker policies have created this mess. Very few traders are holding any shorts, in fact many die-hard short sellers threw in the towel today, completely giving up, throwing their arms up in disgust and swearing that they will never short the market ever again. Interestingly, this now increases the chances of a very strong move south, once it begins, since there will be very little short-covering, the markets may cascade lower taking out stops one after another.

    For the CPC chart and complete technical analysis use the search box above for Keystone Speculator

  • The SPX has a funky alternating down-up-down-up sequence in place for 13 days in a row. If today is up, that will be 14 days in a row. If today is down, it breaks the trend with a move lower. What do you think will happen?

    For the SPX daily chart illustrating the altternate pattern use search box for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Sell

  • SPX Weekly Chart Overbot, Rising Wedge, Negative Divergence and reverse Fibonacci Sequence Nearing End

    The long-term SPX chart shows the negative divergence spank down at the 2007 market top and the negative divergence, overbot conditions and negative divergence in place now. The chart wants to see price move lower but the Fed's money pump is strong, as well as Japan's flood of money. The QE's have been following a reverse Fibonacci Sequence for over four years, since the March 2009 bottom, and is nearing the end; 13, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1. QE1 provided a 13-month rally, QE2 was 8 months, LTRO 1 and 2 and Operation Twist was 5 months, last summer the OMT and QE3 Infinity was about 3 months into the September-October top, then the QE4 Infinity and Beyond announcement in December, replacing Operation Twist with outright purchases, created the rally into February's top, about 2 months.

    The quantitative easing is out of control now with every major nation in a race to debase. The Japan easing and the cumulative effects from all the central bankers actions creates a strong March rally of one month, and, here we are, in April 2013. Projection is for markets to continue topping out now and to roll over moving forward. The Fib sequence needs one more one-month spurt so perhaps a pullback in April occurs, as traders try to beat each other out the door for the 'sell in May' theme, then a move back up in May, then a longer term many month roll over for markets from June forward. Thus, SDS appears attractive moving forward.

    For SPX chart use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The euro has tumbled a long way in a short amount of time for a currency but then again, the move up was equally as wild. Note the doji candlestick top that identified the trend change. The green circle is a gap large enough to drive a Volvo truck through and serves as a magnet for price. The 200-day MA at 1.2859 is critical support. Four days ago, price tested the 200-day MA, successfully, so price kicked in the positive divergence (green lines) and a jump up and out of the falling wedge occurs. The move is similar to AAPL's move recently. So the bounce in the euro is not at all a surprise, that is an easy call using the daily chart. But, now that a bounce occurs, what next? After all, there is space remaining in the apex of the falling wedge and also the 1.27 is critical and important support, perhaps price wants to take a look at these lower targets?
    Time to look at the weekly chart to spread the time frame out. The daily chart bounces price and some further buoyancy would be expected. Upside resistance occurs at 1.2950-ish, where it is now trading, then 1.30 R next. On the weekly chart, the rising wedge is shown. The 50-week MA at 1.2881 has held so use this as a key metric for today and into early next week. The indicators are all weak and bleak (red lines) wanting to see lower lows in price, and the 1.27 support is a logical target. The indicators on both charts hint at a potential sideways vibe moving forward. The blue channel may remain in place well into and through summer time. The projection in the near term is for a move lower to occur in the euro from the current levels now (1.2950-ish), or from 1.30, and a drop down to test the 50-week MA and 200-day MA should occur again, and then likely down to 1.27.
    This pending weakness in the euro should correspond to the broad equity markets moving lower as well. The 1.2880 and 1.2860 are major lines in the sand.

    For euro charts use search box above for Keystone Speculator.

  • Health care is a darling of traders for many months, after all, the only business more steady than helping sick people is the next step, the undertaker. Traders are taking the Fed's easy money and pumping it into perceived safety plays such as utilities, REIT's, Dow stocks, dividend stocks, high-yield corporate's and healthcare. The red lines show the overbot conditions, negative divergence and rising wedge that created the spank down days ago. Price has recovered to a matching and higher high and the indicators are now more strongly negatively diverged. The weekly chart is topping as well. Keystone opened a new position minutes ago shorting XLV. A smack down is anticipated.

    For XLV chart use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Monster may become a very exciting story moving forward. Keystone thinks FB may be interested in MWW to provide a leg up in competing against LKND. There is no evidence of Facebook buying Monster but it may make sense. However, never buy a stock based on takeover speculation. The chart is set up beautifully for a launch. The falling wedge and positive divergence creates the launch pad. MWW has moved relatively sideways and is forgotten in the background but it should jump to the forefront once the launch occurs. Come on Zuck, take your billions over to Monster and shake it in front of their face.

    For MWW chart use search box above for Keystone Speculator

  • Coffee has continued to leak lower. The knife-catches are never easy. Price is oversold, with a falling wedge and universal positive divergence across all indicators. Ditto the weekly chart. Typically this announces an attractive time for a launch. The drop in recent days is sharp so this momo may require a jog move or two at the bottom once price pops. The white lines show an inverted H&S that may develop if the current low holds.

    Charts reflect all the up-to-date information so divergences are always interesting. With the weekly and daily pointing at a bottom now, usually the macro events catch up with the price action. Perhaps adverse weather conditions may effect future coffee yields (price up), or perhaps demand will be up, or other reasons may surface moving forward that would act as a catalyst for a big bounce and verify the positive divergence set-up. Keystone bot more yesterday and has an ongoing JO long trade. He is also drinking extra cups of coffee to help the trade.

    For JO chart, use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is a look at FB's C&H in progress. Price is creating a falling wedge vibe but note the RSI slipping away to the downside, and the MACD line is shaky. There is also downside momo shown by the short red bars. The gap fill at 24.80-ish is a logical target. The money flow stochastics and histogram are very constructive and positively diverged so they want to see price flatten and move higher. This mix of indicators hints at sideways movement going forward and promotes the idea that the handle should finish forming in the month or two ahead. The base for the C&H is 18, breakout line at 32.5, a difference of 14.5, so the upside target is 46 if the 32.5 is taken out.

    The light blue inverted H&S forecasted the up move to the 30-31 area which was achieved. The 20-day MA under the 50-day MA is another negative for FB. Projection is for flat action and a gap fill at 25-ish, sideways then up to finish the handle over the next couple months. The chart will need reassessed at that time but the projection now is sideways action for the springtime with buoyancy appearing as the summer sun begins, then potential upside breakout at 32.5.

    For FB chart use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Lots of bullish talk about GE yesterday but the charts clearly show nastiness ahead. When both the daily and weekly charts agree with negative divergence that is very detrimental to a stock or index. The daily chart shows a spank down beginning yesterday. An H&S pattern appears on the daily chart with a head at 24, neckline at 23, target 22. Also, a potential island reversal may occur where price comes down to 23 then collapses to 22.50 in an instant. At the least the gap at 22.5-23.0 will require filling.

    On the weekly, the W pattern bottom targeted 22 which was easily achieved on the way up. The weekly may be developing a longer term H&S with head at 24, neckline at 20, target at 16. The charts show that the gains in GE are likely in the rear-view mirror. CEO Immelt is taking a big payday at the top. The red lines show the negative divergence that will spank GE lower for the weeks ahead. A move through 20-24 is reasonable into summer and then likely lower as the months tick by.

    For GE charts and TA use search box for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Sell

  • AAPL bounced on divvy rumors yesterday. That must have been a long trader sick of waiting for Apple to recover so he called the local news station to pump the action. Today's action will be interesting. The bounce over the last two weeks was forecasted by the falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence (green lines). But notice the MACD line, we talked about this a couple weeks ago. Price should retreat again to satisfy the MACD line since it wants to see one more lower low in price, then will likely set up with positive divergence to join the bull party. Thus, AAPL should come back down for another low print at 415-430, and then she will be ready to go full force upwards. The question is simply from where does the pull back occur. With the divvy rumor, Apple can run to 450 right now, and a move higher cannot be ruled out if the divvy talk grows today, before the final pull back occurs.
    So there are a couple different paths. If a short term or day trader type, and gains exist from the two week pop, take the money and run and wait for the pull back to reload. If shorter term trading is not your bag, and you are in the stock, then do not look at Apple for a month or two and you will be pleasantly surprised as it likely ventures towards resistance at 450 and 480. If not in the stock right now, simply watch to see if the pull back occurs as the chart forecasts, then that would be the time to enter. So Apple allows you to choose your poison moving forward, but up is the likely direction forward, especially when the MACD agrees, and with all indicators positively diverged or long and strong, this should lead to multiple weeks of up. However, as mentioned last time, the luster should come off the rose as beach time nears and AAPL will likely leak lower again and venture into the 300's as 2013 motors along into 2014, reestablishing the sideways channel through 300-400.
    For AAPL chart and TA use search box for Keystone Speculator

  • Keystone through his hat into the ring for Apple opening a new long position. This morning the bashing continues in the media outlets with many calling AAPL a washed-up has-been. You know what happens when the consensus grows so negative. The green falling wedge places price at the apex right now ready for a launch. The oversold conditions indicate that a turn-around to the upside is near and the positive divergence (green lines) want to see a launch occur. However, note the MACD line on the weekly that remains negatively sloped. The other indicators want to see a bounce in Apple right now but the MACD line will want to see price come back down once more to firmly place a near-term bottom. The money flow on the daily chart also hints that price will need to come back down after a short pop before then firmly heading higher.
    The weekly chart shows an H&S with head at 705, neckline at 520-ish, so the lower target is 335, call it the 300-340 zone, for the weeks and months ahead, perhaps as Labor Day and the holidays approach. But for now, the bulls should have a few days, couple weeks, or a month or so, of upside ahead. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 2's lead to 8's, so a break of the critical 420 support will likely lead to 380. Thus, an additional scale-in for the long position, if the trade goes south, can occur at 380-ish. At this juncture, the expectation is that 420 support holds. Price may take a sharp intraday drop to 410 or 405 but may immediately recover in minutes, making this action, should it occur, a very nice low point to snag right now.

    Comments are not copying over properly, more analysis on the site.

    For the Apple charts use search box above for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Lots of traders were tripping over each other to buy Apple last week. Tom DeMark, a noted market timer, gave the go signal for Apple over the last week or so based on his work that shows the downside move exhausted for now. The green falling wedges are very prominent and are bullish patterns. Price typically finds a bottom and will launch up and out of a falling wedge. The daily chart is set up nicely with positive divergence that created the bounce a few days ago. The indicators remain sloping upwards which is bull friendly, however, the short red lines over the last couple weeks hint at another test of the low. Note how price sits on an island now on the daily chart, an island under 460. Therefore, a potential island reversal may be on tap where price launches to 485 in a blink of an eye.

    The weekly chart is positively diverged (neon green lines for the indicators) with the lower low in price, however, the RSI and MACD line wants to see a lower low on the weekly basis. Also note the sturdy support at 420 going back over the last 18 months. The folks that ran into Apple to try and catch a bottom may watch a backward slide this week as the chart sets up for a more firm bounce as described above. If a lower low in price prints at 420-440, that will likely set the charts up with universal positive divergence and signal the all-clear for upside. This is an interesting set up since what may happen is a flush move lower, it may be very fast, and some of the folks that bot over the last few days may jump ship in a panic. The move down to 420-440 may come very quickly so only the alert traders may snag it properly.

    Projection is a move to 420-440 in the coming days, then a move up to 460, then perhaps an island reversal to 485, if not, a simple gap fill will occur and a move higher to say, 480-520,

    For charts and complete analysis use search box for Keystone Speculator

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The drop in volatility is historic. The bottom fell out last week with the VIX now at levels not seen since the market top in 2007, six years ago. The red lines show the ongoing falling wedge vibe on both the daily and weekly charts. The VIX is testing critical support levels from early 2007 so this is a logical place for a bounce. The green lines show positive divergence in place for the weekly chart. Likewise the daily chart, but the momo market move higher, VIX lower, last week, may need time to settle. A low VIX signals complacency and no fear or worry in the markets. Traders are not buying volatility since no one believes the markets will go down. The central bankers trained everyone well. The debt ceiling resolution rumor on Thursday catapulted markets so much of the melt-up last week was due to happy political resolutions like the fiscal cliff to start the year. There is zero downside priced into markets for any negative political outcome. The politicians will meet all the deadlines coming and keep kicking the can down the road so traders are not concerned about any that either.

    The Fed and ECB are printing money, now the BOJ, the race to debase now beginning currency wars. But as far as markets go, the wine is flowing like water, earnings are starting out on a positive tone, the Housing Starts were blow-out, the Jobless Claims are at lows, and AAPL will likely announce stellar earnings on Wednesday. Perhaps traders are already pricing in happy Apple news as well. Large funds are stepping on volatility's neck holding it down while they can distribute to Joe Sixpack, then they will lift their foot. Other agents can pressure the VIX lower to help fulfill the Fed's game plan. VIX says we are at a significant market top, and a volatility launch may occur at anytime, but, tell that to the SPX. Projection is for a much higher VIX in 2013 which is reflective of lower equity markets in 2013.

    For VIX charts use search box above for Keystone Speculator

  • AAPL was down 4% last week and the oddest thing is that the broad indexes were up one percent. Apple makes up about 20% of the Nasdaq and about 7% of the S&P 500 (SPX). Many mixed signals are occurring in the markets. Perhaps the money running from Apple is simply moving into riskier small cap stocks, which is causing much of the short-covering rallies and strong movement higher in the small caps to begin the year. Seasonality-wise, the small caps do well this time of year. Thus, the broad indexes remain buoyant despite the AAPL selling but it is far more likely that if Apple weakens further, so will the markets.
    The five-year blue trend lines failed in the late summer off the double M top forecasting big trouble ahead. The upward-sloping channel middle rail failed in the October selloff. Price is now at the lower red trend line. The 20-week MA is about to fall thru the 50-week MA which signals long term bearishness ahead. As with all crosses, however, many times price will bounce as the negative cross occurs. The green falling wedge is in play now as explained in the daily chart during the week. Simply type 'AAPL' in the search box above to bring up the recent Apple charts for further study. The indicators are lining up with positive divergence wanting to see a bounce, but the MACD line wants a lower low and the RSI may turn more negative in coming days.

    Analysis is too long to post. For Apple chart adn TA use search box for Keystone Speculator.

  • Century-old Dow Theory says the Industrials and Trannies must confirm the higher highs together for a bullish market, or lower lows together, for a bearish market. If one index is moving higher, but the other diverges lower, there is typically trouble ahead. After a bottom, the higher highs in each index confirm a steady move higher. There are several different view points on the finer details of Dow Theory but Keystone prefers the simple approach for this tool.

    With the wild upside move in the TRAN over the last couple months, breaking out to new highs, and also all-time highs, all eyes are on the Dow Industrials for confirmation that will point to a long-lasting bull party. However, the Dow Industrials are not yet above the intraday October 2012 highs let alone the all-time highs printed at the market top in October 2007. On 10/5/12, the Dow printed a closing price of 13610.15 and an intraday high at 13661.87, which are the highs for 2012. Yesterday, 1/18/13, the Dow prints a closing high at 13649.70 and intraday high at 13649.93. Thus, wave the banners for a new five-year 'closing' high but not for a new overall five-year high, at least not yet. The Dow needs to print above 13661.87, about a dozen points higher, to officially take out the October 2012 high and claim the five-year multi-year high title.

    This discussion is important in the context of Dow Theory. Note in 2011 the Trannies made another higher high. The Trannies had led the Industrials the whole way off the March 2009 QE1 bottom. The Industrials, however, did not confirm, and the markets rolled over into the August 2011 waterfall crash. This was highlighted at the time. Type 'Dow Theory' in the search box above to bring up the August 2011 Dow Theory charts for further study. In Autumn 2011, Chairman Bernanke cranked up the Opeation Twist pumping and the ECB kicked off global monetary intervention with the LTRO 1 program promising LTRO 2 in quick order as well. Thus, the markets jump higher on the free money.

    In early 2012, the Industrials were pushing higher but the Trannies would not confirm so the markets hit another weak patch. During 2012, with further Fed and ECB quantitative easing intervention, goosed markets higher once again with the Industrials printing new highs. The Trannies would not confirm and the downward channel in the Trannies last year foretold of negative things in our futures. However, the power of the artificial money pumping would not end. The ECB intervenes with the OMT Bond-Buying plan and the Fed announces QE3 Infinity so the good times are rolling again. The Trannies jump into action from the mid-November bottom, receiving a pump, since all the money sloshing around has to go somewhere, why not in the sector that should jump if a recovery is continuing. Then the Fed's throw QE4 Infinity and Beyond in the mix, why the money is simply falling from helicopters these days. So here we are, looking for a confirmation with the Dow Industrials.

    The Industrials need to print higher highs to confirm a sustainable move higher and this will start with price taking out the October 2012 high at 13661.87 (12 points higher). Once that is accomplished, the bulls receive a small feather in their caps, but then they must take out the October 2007 high at 14198.10 (550 points higher). That would achieve the confirmation and signal nothing but blue skies above for markets.

    For the Dow and Tranny charts and further technical analysis, use search box above for Keystone Speculator

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