Yeah, I guess when Kip said, "the year is shaping up" we could interpret that to mean so far we're on schedule but it could also mean so far we're doing as lousy as we guided. It doesn't imply that so far we're doing GOOD. Personally I think the most we can take from this is that MU is likely to MEET by the 3Q ER.
"In DRAM, actually, I think, the year is shaping up pretty much like we thought. I think the supply/demand balance is still going to remain quite healthy this year, meaning about the same level of supply as demand."
The above is the only thing I read Kip saying referring specifically to this year. And he didn't speak in terms of this quarter. So, I think we should be cautiously optimistic that this next 3Q ER will be a MEET, not a Miss. kg
Thx Cody. I read this too. "Micron's Management Presents at 43rd Annual JP Morgan Global TMT Conference (Transcript) " Q&A with Kipp Bedard, Vice President of Investor Relations from Micron ".
The biggest thing I took from this is that MU has many other growing segments for DRAM besides the PC. Although MU historically has been a big supplier to PC's, this is rapidly changing. So the current and cyclical PC sales problem will become less n less a problem for MU over time. kg
"2 more and possibly up to 10 years of current secular bull"
Hope you're right but history shows this is highly unlikely.
Wonder if VG is an attractive buyout candidate?
Five years ago when I originally bought my shrs for a "quick trade" VG was a novelty stock because Voip phone co's were relatively new and therefore there was considerable interest from investors. Now, the market has become much more competitive for this segment. It is also morphing from consumer customers to small-med bus customers and VG appear to be doing reasonably well on this new path. I think VG's lack of aggressive growth has more to do with the segment (telecom, boring and highly competitive). VG's Qtrly ERs have been great and yet the sp just can't seem to sustain the 5 yr high. And this after a 6 year Bull Run in the overall market (which is coming to an end now).
kg2931 (10K shrs VG @ $5.22 ($52,207.25) Long since 4/28/11)
Me too. I question why, "You can't compare lvlt to EGHT or VG"? I've been under the impression that LVLT is closer to VG than EGHT. What other telecom stocks would you say are better comparisons to VG?
At this point, there is no evidence MU will report bull or bear news by 3Q(June). Probably just much the same. It's 4Q the Bulls are counting on. Go MU!
Also still here. Taking a vacation and waiting for overall market to get past spring & summer doldrums.
kg2931 (10K shrs VG @ $5.22 ($52,207.25) Long since 4/28/11)
Thx for your expertise! Good to know about this new Edge replacing IE 11. Who knows, I might start using it over Mozilla. If I was in the market right now to buy a new machine I'd be picking your brain big time. I've been out of this area too long to even wanna keep up, ha! Oh, and I concur with your opinion, "Samsung is not the better investment" than MU and for the same reason - Samsung's too diversified.
Hey thx matrix for sharing trobles with Win10 and IE11! HP and Dell would know. his is really good info. Do you know, is the IE crash just with WIN 8.1 or is it also with Win10? If just WIN 8.1, then this is a good reason to get WIN 10 out ASAP and also a potential for more sales (to get off 8.1). Thanks for HP tip. Yes, more n more of the industry is leaning away from desktop pcs but they still need the SERVERS! So, whether it's PC or Mobile, MU's gonna be around for a LONG time! Thanks again for this. kg
matrix, good points and thank you. My thinking is if Dram Growth comes in less than 8% for MU, it will be off the mark for competitors as well. The whole sector is gearing up for 4Q and after. MU has always been under Samsung in the space the compete in but MU has some advantages with Intel 3D next year being one of them. Everyone knows this as well. So, I'm not sure it's the market is ignoring MU's subordinate pos to Samsung's, but rather waiting for the time we expect to shine again. At any rate, I wouldn't say the current fall to $26 is because semi investors see Samsung the better investment. Hope I'm right! Thx, kg.
butcher (ha, nice name!), I agree with you. I only provided the Bear side because I'd like to see some scrutiny on that. (The Bull side is well entrenched here already)
Ditto Mr Camp! Nice to see some longs coming back to this msg bd. Not that we've gone anywhere. We know the score. Just quietly watching and biding our time until Q4 (Sept). We probably should address today's Barron's article by Tiernan Ray. (please see my other Topic today)
Kg2931 (Long & Strong 2K shrs MU @ $24.92 held for better of worse since 3/5/14)
and maybe even the 4th qtr but MU and the analysts have us believing good things are to come by then. So, perhaps a more bullish picture for MU than, "Until then who knows how low it'll go".
Lack of recent Bullish articles probably more a factor the news is already well known there's not much catalyst between now and 3Q and 4Q. We're all waiting for things that don't materialize until that time frame.
So, let's use this discussion board to break down and analyze Tiernan's article. Tiernan always writes with a bearish stance, skeptical at least, on MU. What's everyone think? Is this Bear artical hold weight? Factually true or Propaganda?
"For the bears, Romit Shah of Nomura Securities reiterates a Neutral rating on Micron, and a $25 price target, casting DRAM oversupply as more of an issue than investors realize:
We are cutting MayQ/AugQ estimates due to on-going softness in pricing, as a result of the weak PC backdrop which has persisted longer than we suspected. For AugQ, consensus DRAM growth estimate of +8% Q/Q appears too high given that we do not expect an inflection in PC demand until potentially end of summer. We believe that revenue growth could be more near 3%, assuming ASPs -5% and bit shipments +9%, largely driven by mobile and server.
For Micron specifically, Shah is worried about how they have slipped behind Samsung in technology:
Longer-term issues include a lagging technology roadmap, which should further pressure margins and FCF Behind on technology: Thus far, Inotera is struggling on early 20nm output. While Micron is not expecting meaningful contributions from 20nm DRAM until 2H15, we believe there is added risk that 20nm ramp to maturity could take longer than expected. Samsung holds a 1-year+ lead on 20nm process technology with mass production since April 2014. In addition, Samsung is also benefitting from leadership in 20nm LPDDR4 into the mobile market. The technological gap creates cost disparity that is a risk to Micron’s margins."
dg, why a "laugh"? Are you saying VG this last ER guided higher on everything or just didn't address any potential trouble area? Please explain.