Sad when we are happy with half the value pre ASCO. Post ASCO we deliver the data and lose half our value.
I hope you are correct for the welfare of my still relative strong remaining shares. I am protecting against the possible aftermath of an unwarranted R/S. If this goes to 5, I could see it slowly regress back to 2 to 3 dollars without follow up strong developments...especially sales. The risk is obviously.... Chan does have a ton of ammunition to follow through with the R/S and then I lose on the percentage of shares I am using for protection. Finally, if the post R/S does retreat to 2 to 3 range (5 to 10 cent) pre....I can buy back based on delivery of what was promised 8 months ago. I have seen the ugliness of the R/S too many times. May not happen here.
I have downsized significantly. A R/S is not a catalyst, it is mere paper/share shuffling. If the pps gets to X from the R/S, the institutions can then buy....but, may not. Chan has to give them a reason to buy, not just because they can. So far Chan has over promised and under delivered. Nov. 15th I may be down to 10k shares, or back to 400K depending on the next 30 to 60 days.
I would love to see: Through this initial DOD affirmation and validation, SRPT a leader in:
Any Exon that SRPT can successfully and safely skip to align a specific cause and effect to various disease states...i.e. ALS, Alzheimer's, Parkinsons etc...
Not being very particular, but since nothing has come to fruition with the big hype pre capital raise/dilution....I' ll take any four possibilities below, however, the more the merrier:
FDA meeting and formal progress
Partnership with reputable company
Positive trial updates
1or 2 new IP's of the 5 promised
Insider direct buy (especially Chan)
Additional distributors and sales interim numbers
News on reimbursement approvals from various countries for cytokine intervention specific to various disease states.
I DO NOT want to see an RS just to grab a pps number for up list as are major accomplishment YTD....ouch! Especially, if many of the above do not come to fruition. Again...JMHO
Which sounds great right now, that is obviously 4 million for filter sales alone. If the trajectory doubles the following year (which is what we would expect with transitioning to SOC), we are at 8 million in 2015/16. I will only hold if the trajectory holds this trend. The new IP's, partnerships, CABG data, other 30 trial data, neutralization of dilution and OS (float), grants etc... will be bonuses...However, it is time for full blown filter adoption. These are unmet needs where people are dying....it is either making a difference or not. Next 2 Q's will reveal to me, whether Chan's 10's of millions was a euphoric spasm of rhetoric. September is a crucial month for significant developments...not one of the new 5 IP's have been unveiled. Over promise...under deliver is the incompetency of a poor CEO....Timelines = Credibility = Competency = Trust to shareholders and the street. By Sept. 30th we should have 4 significant PR's....still holding, but want promised progress. JMHO
We'll miss you at the party, because you'll probably be too late for the party, and decide to not come at all. I'll be the dude running around with the lamp shade on my head. GLTY
Mistake No. 3: Not seeking pipeline diversity.
Lastly, far too many novice biotech investors focus on companies with very few existing drugs or that have just a handful of compounds in development. By doing this, investors are giving themselves only a limited chance of long-term success.
Source: Laffy4k, Flickr
Allow me to use a baseball analogy to better describe this. Imagine I asked you to hit a home run over the fence, but that you only get one pitch with which to do so. Now, imagine I have 20 baseballs in a bucket and I said you have to hit a single home run over the fence. In both scenarios you win if only one ball clears the fence. Which would you rather choose?
If you said the latter you're thinking like a true biotech investor because you're spreading your risk around over a number of developing and existing drugs. If a few developing compounds fail to succeed in clinical studies then your downside risk is mitigated by the fact there are more than a dozen other experimental compounds that might succeed. In contrast, a pipeline with only one or two drugs has the potential to blow up in biotech investors' faces if things don't go according to plan.
I agree that SRPT would have a very minimal impact on the enormous epidemic. However, if their drug is 75% efficacious in eradicating (as in primates) the mortality rate, they have the scalability to expeditiously produce more than most other companies (due to their rapid response technology). If the government put their resources to work to aggressively assist SRPT...perhaps thousands of doses could be produced in a relative shorter time frame. If this approach is launched soon, SRPT will be a big name to all. What do you suppose that will do to the DMD official AA application when the entire world already knows this company so well?
Mensa. The only down fall with this company is it is all hinged on one technology/device and....small sample size phase 2 current status. I am long, but either electroporation is successful large scale and in multiple solid tumors...or not. So far the data looks convincing and compelling, that is why I am long.. I know you own other bio techs, I personally like bio techs with a breadth of R&D (i.e many shots on goal)...like ISIS, CLDX and even RNN. This is an unusual position for me. All that being said, I always appreciate your perspective and am curious what other bio techs/device companies you think can excel in the next 6 to 18 months. TIA
I have that feeling also....we are over due. I would love to wake up to an "ICPT - like Gap up", with my morning coffee. Don't be short going into the week ends.
to successfully up list based solely on a R/S is disappointing. I was hoping for natural and organic growth to achieve a high pps to minimize the outstanding shares and subsequent float. Simply up listing to achieve 3 or 5 bucks does not guarantee institutional interest, the organic success of the company will achieve BOTH...a better preconditioned up list and obviously a better follow through post R/S with excited and motivated institutional support. Sorry, I will be disappointed if this is how we achieve up listing status. Chan's 10's of millions, partnerships, new IP's, lack of insider buying...in fact selling is not going well with my sentiment. Most importantly, with increased sales support (internal sales reps and distributors), the sales trajectory is not correlating. Finally, DATA from 30 trials, validation of the proof of concept and adoption of the technology is of paramount importance. With 100 plus KOL's, traction and exponential growth is over due. I will remain long, but have down sized. The after math of a R/S with out substantive organic support will be a formula for a subsequent sell off and a huge new float. We had a lot of hype 8 months ago....too many pending catalysts in question. I will carefully assess the next Q for sales and adoption. I have been here for 5 years (so don't attack me with the Patience thing) so please realize this is honest sentiment and am hopeful for significant PR's in next 30 days. JMHO
Honestly, fair enough. I'll move on.
BTW, your unanswered questions is certainly why the pps has been beaten to a pulp. When the tide shifts from these bargain levels, the pps will respond accordingly. GLTY (frustrated long, basher looking for lower pps buys or a straight out short)
Good and fair questions. Every question will be answered with a resounding and optimistic positive out come. As for now, I look at all your fair questions as potential and pending catalysts....that is why I am a long. If I thought all of the issues and concerns you bring to question will not come to positive fruition then I would not be in the stock as a long ( 6 to 12 months longer....BAM!) For now, you ask fair questions, for me, they are potential catalysts and resolutions for continued progress. The FDA would not mention our product by trade name in a conference for potential break throughs if they despised SRPT and our CEO...they could have selected other examples for break through medicines.
The formal NDA timed just prior to the Jerry Lewis Muscular Dystrophy Telethon weekend. I know, perhaps overly ambitious and zealous on my part, but the carry on to that PR would be enormously magnified. We are all here for good news....that would make up for all the distractions as of late. You just never know. How am I doing Gary?
Once the formal NDA is filed and submitted with focus back on DMD, this will be running through the 20's and into the 30's. Hopefully, Chris gave us a conservative time frame that he can beat and catch the sideliners and shorts off guard. Any positive news outside of DMD is a bonus. If you do not believe an official FDA SPA NDA for AA (wow, how did I do that) won't drive this up from here, you are missing an excellent buying opportunity. In bio land, weeks and months are like watching paint dry, however, Don't be the Turkey before Thanks Giving. Patience will prevail for the advancement in DMD and the affected families...and we as investors will celebrate along side the kids.