When Intel wins, only Intel wins. To a much lesser extent, their customers win because they are selling into competitive commoditized markets -- look at Dell. Intel keeps most of the profits in chip making to themselves. When ARM wins, the foundries win, the chips vendors win etc. There's many winners. ARM keeps a small share of the profits when their IP gets used. The majority share is with the ARM ecosystem. If you look at the industry as a whole, a lot of people are behind ARM and very few people are behind Intel. If technically Intel and ARM create equivalent products, which is expected to be the case, industry sentiment will favour ARM. At the 20000 ft level this is the justification for the high P/E, a secular shift in microprocessor technology from Intel to ARM.
If Win 8.1 tablets don't sell through which is to be expected given the earlier tepid response to Win 8 tablets by the market, Intel's ability to grow its revenues based on additional tablet targeted chip sales is limited. This should have a detrimental impact on stock price in the absence of any other growth drivers for the stock in the near term. The longer term picture is likely not going to change much from what it is now given that Intel doesn't really have any basis for differentiation from its competitors -- there's no Wintel moat this time around if 8.1 fails to grow. Perhaps it should start making fab equipment.
As usual you'll have to wait for Intel's next iteration for that. They like to leave their products slightly unfinished when they bring them to market so that people experience the slight deficiency and clamor for more for the next time.
HP Chromebook 11, based on the Exynos 5250 GAIA Application Processor, $279 advertised on Google's site: wwwDOTgoogleDOTcom/intl/en/chrome/devices/hp-chromebook-11/
140 design wins has got to result in some solid sell-through and with Microsoft firing on all cylinders with 8.1 by bringing back the start button, the 1-2 punch of familiar interface and basically better battery life is primed to attract several fence sitters to Bay Trail based Win 8.1 tablets and 2 in 1s. You just can't beat the low price at which these systems are hitting the market. The whole Windows experience at below iPad prices, you just can't beat that. Bay Trail was the shot in the arm Microsoft needed to really make a case for its new tablet friendly OS. Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, Win 8.1 only runs of x86 so ARM can't compete here, even if they could undercut the market on price. This is fully old-fashioned Wintel territory. Android dual-boot is only icing on the cake with the huge cache of apps from Google play to supplement the already humungous Windows legacy apps support.
What I'm talking about is a long term trend. What you're talking about is one perspective on what is happening in the devices market today. What you're missing is Intel can't compete on cost with the ARM ecosystem without sacrificing margins and hence market valuation. That's the basis for a trend in ARM's favour
Developers like ARM. The entire open source movement is behind ARM. Intel will be hard pressed to stem the tide of industry sentiment against it.
I don't think things have changed with BK as new CEO. They're still sticking with "what works" and not risking integrating up to platform level. I agree with you assessment that in order to compete in today's scenario, they need to truly become a device vendor and not just make reference designs.
Microsoft is doing this and very soon you could see them designing their own ARM based chips to complete their vertical integration.
PC OEMs are trying to roll out "appealing" products but its an uphill task because they are very late to and new to the game. Underlying chip tech is only a small part of the product puzzle.
Intel will participate in the Android market, I'm assuming that, but margins there will be low.
Intel can't predict how much its core PC client market is going to slow down. That's consumer sentiment. If we go by the trends, it will likely continue to erode. The smartphone chip story is very similar to the tablet one, late and new.
Windows is a 300 million+ annual worldwide market which is bigger than the tablet market. However, this market is shrinking while the tablet market is growing which point towards cannibalization. Of course a lot of people will upgrade their ageing Windows machines specially with the superior technology now available. But, whether or not that ongoing upgrade cycle will receive a bump due to Haswell and Bay Trail or will continue its slide downwards due to cannibalization by tablets is the question. The trends point to a continuing slide downwards.
While it's made significant advances in optimizing the power/performance of its chips with its new Haswell and Bay Trail chips, Intel's fortunes in the PC devices market are tied with OEMs such as Dell that are themselves struggling for a foothold on a slippery slope (after significant declines in its revenues, Dell was recently taken private) . The secular shift in the buying preferences of consumers towards class defining tablets by Apple (the iPad) and the cheaper and more open offerings from the Android ecosystem led by Samsung and Amazon have left Intel and it's traditional PC OEMs (such as Dell) in the dust. With the failure of Microsoft's Windows 8 to garner much mind-share with consumers in the face of these changes, Intel and its coterie of PC OEMs pretty much have to compete for scraps in the highly voluminous but not so lucrative Android tablet space. While Intel is seeing good commitment for its technology from the OEMs, the OEMs themselves are fishing in the air for a product that will stick with consumers and go head on against the (ARM based) quality offerings from Samsung and Apple, all of which are mature products with several iterations of product life cycles under their belts -- a very difficult market to break into.
If you compare the iPhone 5 with the iPhone 5s in terms of its responsiveness which is a measure of the speed of its processor, then for most everyday tasks such as booting up, shutting down and browsing websites, the iPhone 5s is not noticeably faster than the iPhone 5. However if you use it to play the latest 3D games, the difference is obvious. This data point leads one to believe that Apple is trying to push the envelope of what a smartphone is used for rather than target good enough performance with longer battery life as Intel has done with its Haswell processor for PCs. Indeed in its introduction to the iPhone5s, it highlighted that the A7 was "desktop class".
In a survey of iPhone users, a large percentage wanted Apple to improve the battery life of its next phone. This, when its already providing all day battery life for web browsing. Clearly this is not the path Apple has chosen to take.
Thanks for your time. I learnt a lot a about you from our brief session of conversational flurries. You still have a thing or two to learnt about internet etiquette but we'll leave that to your your teachers and your own individual research. Seems like you've been out of school for a while now.
You're again displaying evidence of your cultural insensitivity. We are here on this board to try to guess and understand why Intel's stock price keeps on rising. Keep that goal in mind.
It's not clear that Intel will meet it's projected timeline son delivering on 14nm. I know much has been made of the fabless foundries on when they will achieve a FinFET breakthrough, but their level of uncertainty seems to be pretty well matched with Intel's and they are all after all going after the same level of detail on the silicon.
This khitchdee story comes from long time ago.
From the time of Akhbar the mughal emperor.
Beerbal was a minister in Akhbar's royal court.
One winter day, it was cold, they were outside.
Akhbar and Beerbal were walking by a lake.
The water was cold it was almost frozen.
Akhbar touched it, quickly withdrew his cold hand.
"Surely no one can stand in this cold water."
"Give him money, a man will do but anything."
Akhbar got proclaimed in his court the following:
Any man who will stand in the lake's water,
for one full night will get one thousand gold coins.
After some time, Beerbal found an old brahmin,
who said he would do the deed for the money.
The man looked quite frail and pale, hardly suited.
All the same Beerbal brought him to Akhbar's court.
Akhbar sent him to the lake with his royal gaurds.
They were instructed to watch him the whole night.
The next morning they all came back from the lake.
The old brahmin looked sickly next to the gaurds.
Yet they said that he stood there for the whole night.
Akhbar wanted to be sure, so he asked him:
"Tell me how you did this feat, what's your secret?"
The old man said far away in the palace,
there was burning an oil lamp that he could see.
He imagined that that lamp gave him its warmth.
On hearing this, Akhbar said "you have cheated!"
He sent the old man away with no money.
Beerbal heard this and he smiled in his wisdom.
He thought I must teach the king a good lesson.
The next two days he didn't come to Akhbar's court.
Akhbar missed him and sent his gaurds to fetch him.
Beerbal from his house sent the following message:
"Jahaanpanaah, I will come to your royal court,
after eating the khitchdee I am cooking."
A full day passed and still no sign of Beerbal.
Akhbar grew impatient and a little curious.
He decreed the royal carriage be prepared for
a trip to Beerbal's house to find out what's wrong.
Akhbar went to Beerbal's house, guess what he found.
Beerbal sat in his courtyard tending fire.
Ten feet above the fire, a pot was
Surreptitously you have taken on this disturbing ID and tried to pretend the board doesn't really care what people post on it. But you don't seem to realize that people are caring more and more about the quality of the information they receive through the internet. This is just one message board, but if you make your presence on it disturbing, it does put people off, at least some of them.
You seem to have a few kinks in your mind that need to be untangled so to speak. One more twist and we'll all be searching for elusive quality that you find in certain posters that seem to make sense. I wouldn't call it a matter of age but more of ageing as in good pickle.