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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

ki1gore_trout 96 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Dec 3, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Foulger's canary

    by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout 21 hours ago Flag

    If anybody thought of you as a bird, it would be the Prairie Chicken. Like you, it's an endangered species that has no economic value. It's endangered because it's stupid. All it knows how to do is eat, defecate, and copulate. Being as how it is on the verge of extinction, it seems to have acquired no particular distinction even in THOSE basic life functions.

  • Reply to

    Home Ownership at a 20 year low

    by ethison Jan 29, 2015 4:06 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 30, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    Traditional home ownership is a losing proposition for most people, in the post-2008 world where property values do not rocket upward by 10% per year. Maintaining a traditional subdivision home sucks up immense amounts of time and money for people whose time and money is short.

    And it's hard to get the money you invest in your home back anymore. I know people who've put $100,000 in improvements into their homes that have not added any resale value. That $100K is a pure waste of money economically, although in terms of emotional satisfaction it may be worthwhile.

    In the mean time, two-bedroom luxury apartments in desirable in-town locations can be had for $2,000 a month even in high-cost West Coast cities. Paying $24K per year in rent sounds like a lot, but many homeowners pay that much just in property taxes for equivalent properties in undesirable outer-suburban communities with an hours-long commute.

    Detached home ownership has only ever been common in the USA, due to the high standard of living and mortgage interest deduction that other countries do not have. Canadians and Europeans live in high-rise and mid-rise apartments and condos in central cities. That is starting to happen in the newer cities of the USA, at least for those in the younger and older demographics who don't need as much outdoor space for their kids to roam.

  • Reply to

    Home Ownership at a 20 year low

    by ethison Jan 29, 2015 4:06 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 11:03 PM Flag

    I would hazard a guess that home ownership is highest in mid-sized, middle-of-the-country places like Oak City and Louisville. Housing is cheap enough in those places to be affordable for young families just getting started out in their careers.

    The apartment building boom is going strong in high-cost, high-tech cities on the coasts. I was just looking at apartment rentals in Seattle. There are scads of new luxury apartment high rises and mid-rises there and in the other west coast urban areas. In those places conventional housing has become expensive and also inconvenient to the requirements of a mobile workforce that doesn't want to be tethered to an owned home.

  • Reply to

    Foulger's canary

    by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Well, Foulger's not a real canary, but he's pretty close. I imagine him as being a lot like that "Big Bird" * character we used to watch with our kids on Sesame Street:

    * Big Bird is a character on the children's television show Sesame Street. Officially performed by Caroll Spinney since 1969, he is an eight-foot two-inch (249 cm) tall bright primrose-yellow bird.[2] He can roller skate, ice skate, dance, sing, write poetry, draw and even ride a unicycle. But despite this wide array of talents, he is prone to frequent misunderstandings, on one occasion even singing the alphabet as one big long word (from the song called "ABC-DEF-GHI," pronounced "ab-keddef-gajihkel-monop-quristuv-wixyz"), pondering what it could ever mean. He lives in a large nest behind the 123 Sesame Street brownstone and has a teddy bear named Radar.

  • ki1gore_trout by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Foulger is like those canaries that coal miners used to take with them into the mines. If the canary croaked, the miners knew that there wasn't enough oxygen left for them to breathe, so they made a beeline to the surface. That's the way Foulger reacts around earnings time. If he "goes dark" just before earnings day, after inventing some ridiculous story about having to go rehab his hut in Indochina, then I'd unload this puppy.

  • Reply to

    In case this storm causes me to go dark

    by davisfolger Jan 26, 2015 11:30 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 27, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Anderson Cooper was pumping this thing up to be an unmitigated disaster, a "30-hour whiteout" last night on CNN, but 75% of it seems to have missed NYC and gone up the New England Coast.

    btw. Did you see the latest Foulgerite Script from yesterday:

    "I'm increasing my position."

    Stock loses 50%.

    "That's good, because I sold at higher prices. Now I've got money to buy at even lower prices. I'm the only person on Earth who's smart enough to make money owning a falling stock."

  • Reply to

    Tabernas , The Gift That Keeps Giving !

    by imjoel00 Jan 26, 2015 8:46 AM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 26, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    --Beyond that, anybody who was listening to me lightened up at those high prices.

    LOL, you're a pathological liar. Here's what you were telling your Foulgerites in April and May 2010 "at those high prices" :

    14-May-10 05:38 pm I increased my position in RAS - $2.83 (x3, adjust reverse split = $8.49)

    7-May-10 09:08 am I'm doing ( increasing my position - $3.38 (X3 = $10.49)

    1-May-10 11:48 am I can increase my position - $4.06 (X3 = $12.18)

    27-Apr-10 12:30 am increase in my position. - $2.95 (X3 = $8.85)

    23-Apr-10 12:41 pm increased my position - $2.97 (X3 = $8.91)

    You told your ignorant Foulgerites that you were "increasing" your position at the exact highs of April 2010. So you were either lying then, or lying now. But, what else is new?

  • Reply to

    Tabernas , The Gift That Keeps Giving !

    by imjoel00 Jan 26, 2015 8:46 AM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 26, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    You left out the part about how RAS hit its post-crash high in April, 2010 at a pre-RS price of $14.25. It sells for HALF that now, almost five years later. Even the most diehard of ignorant Former Foulgerites like GC, Helping Hands, and Hucky wised up and abandoned the sinking ship.

    How much better would RAS have done WITHOUT Taberna? It might have been up by a factor of 5x, like NRF/NSAM, instead of down 50% in five years.

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 25, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    I've never said anything about Scott Shaefer other than: "I don't know him and have no reason to criticize anything he's done to recover RAS."

    I have been around long enough to know about the Cohens AND YOU, and my opinions on those matters are very definite.

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 24, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Very well stated, Ethison. The schemes of "Granny" Cohen and "L'enfente Terrible" (aka Danny Cohen, "the most toxic organism since Bubonic Plague") destroyed 7/8ths of the RAS tree. But the 1/8th that poked its green shoots up from the ashes survived, thanks to Scott Shaefer.

    Prudent people like Scott are hooted at when they're REALLY needed during those bubbles of 2005-2008 when the fast-buck hucksters are out in fully cry. At times like those only the voices of the most reckless speculators, and the small-fry Foulgerites who egg them on, are heard. After the speculators and the small fry who ride their coattails are immolated on the altar of obscene greed, prudent men and women, like Scott, are called upon to restore order, and the economy gets on a sound footing again.

    RAS is one-eighth of what it used to be, but its foundation is now sound. The Foulgerites went up down in an orgy of speculation, but their leader is still here, albeit with diminished expectations. Instead of promising his acolytes instant fortunes if they sell their condos and invest in RAS and Lehman Brothers, he now promises nickels and dimes in dividends, and occasionally pretends to hustle a few pennies from high frequency trading when the stock falls off the wagon. It is a minimal existence, but at least an honest one.

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    You did the conversion the wrong way. It was a REVERSE split, which reduced the share count.

    RAS had 100mm pre-rs shares outstanding in December 2010 when I told you its share price would stabilize at $8.10 in four years. That's the equivalent of 33mm post-RS-shares. They now have 83 mm shares, so they have issued 50 million post-split shares. That's equivalent to 150mm pre-split shares.

    No matter whether you figure it in pre-split or post-split shares, they have diluted by 150%, i.e. 2.5x. 2.5x is a lot of dilution in four years.

    You think you're getting a decent dividend at 18 cents, but it is only 1/8th of what you were getting before the dilution and the reverse-split. 1/8th of a dividend is not much to crow about, and it took 7 and a half years to get THAT.

  • Reply to

    The wisdom of fiction

    by gtw999 Jan 23, 2015 3:39 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    Wow, what a depressing story! It does sound like a parable of Davis and the Foulgerites. If Davis had written the story he would have said it had a happy ending because the whole family got a package deal on their funeral.

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    Thanks for the correction --- RAS "only" issued 150 million new shares, not 250 million. The TOTAL share count is now 82/84 million, or 250 million, pre-RS.

    Another interesting thing is that you were boasting back in October 1, 2008 that the $.46 quarterly dividend would be sustained. That's actually $1.38 in Pre-RS terms. So, the dividend gets eliminated for six quarters, then comes back seven and a half years later #$%$18 (eighteen cents AFTER a 3:1 REVERSE SPLIT!).

    So your dividend gets cut 87%, your share price goes down 87% from your first buy point, and you think you're in a great investment!!

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    -- I've correctly posted that the dividend was safe a number of times over the last few years ... and been right every time.

    F*A*M*O*U*S F*O*U*L*G*E*R*I*S*M Q*U*I*Z

    June 1, 2010

    Davis Foulger: By the way, RAS has never missed paying its preferred dividends, even when they approached a 100% yield. It has never missed paying common dividends either.

    Question 1: When Davis made this statement how many common dividends had RAS missed paying:

    A. None, like Davis said
    B. It had missed 1 dividend
    C. It had missed 3 dividends
    D. It had missed 6 dividends

    October 1, 2008

    Davis Foulger: The usual rumors of a dividend cut are in evidence, but…we have no information suggesting a cut. I would be surprised if the dividend is less than 46 cents.

    Question 2: What was the dividend announced 3 days later?

    A) 46 cents like Davis said
    B) Dividend was cut to 40 cents and maintained
    C) Dividend was cut to 38 cents and maintained
    D) Dividend was cut to 35 cents and then eliminated

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    What you're forgetting is that RAS's escape from its near-death experience came at the price of 250,000,000 shares of DILUTION (pre-RS). That's why the RS-adjusted price today is less than half of what it was on that fateful day seven and a half years ago when you said the dividend was as solid as a gold brick.

    A quarter-billion new shares and a capital loss of 60% from an already-depressed price seven and a half years ago is a difficult row to hoe, especially at a time when the rest of the market has been a healthy bull. Like someone else mentioned, it reminds one of he Monty Python sketch where he Black Night gets his arms and legs hacked off in a sword duel, but claims victory nonetheless.

  • Reply to

    Div Is Safe !

    by imjoel00 Jan 23, 2015 2:14 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    The last time Doctor Snakehead said "the dividend is safe" was October 1, 2008. The dividend was eliminated and RAS fell from $87.00 to $9.60 (price adjusted for reverse split). Note that 7 and a half years later, the price is STILL below $9.60, the last time the good Doctor Snakehead assured us that the dividend was safe for eternity.

    I wouldn't expect RAS to cut the dividend, but Doctor Snakehead assuring us that it is safe is an ill omen.

  • Reply to

    Proforma will say it all

    by ethison Jan 22, 2015 12:17 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    If they are thinking to cut the dividend they will drop CAD and invent some bogus accounting metric that nobody else has ever heard of. If the stay with CAD it means the dividend is safe.

  • Reply to

    Declining short position

    by ethison Jan 20, 2015 3:40 PM
    ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 23, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    SA is a vehicle that hedge fund managers use to communicate with each other so that they can act in concert. Barrons and IBD are like that too. Barrons is the most dangerous financial sheet because the majority of its articles are facades for hidden agendas. That's the way it used to be anyway; I haven't read it since the mid 1990s. The biggest effect of the financial press is to fleece amateurs out of their money.

  • ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 20, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    If "Davis" is a computer-generated script, then it has performed at middling level. Almost all of the old-time Foulgerites have wandered off the reservation, so the script has not been quite as compelling as it might have been. But I suppose it does simulate things a human being might say, albeit a very odd one.

  • ki1gore_trout ki1gore_trout Jan 20, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    Said it before, but I'll bet Davis doesn't own more than a hundred shares of RAS, if he owns any at all. I'm guessing that he's a lot smarter than he pretends to be.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's writing his Masters Thesis on the effects of propaganda on the minds of neophyte investors on Yahoo Message boards --- a cyberspace version of the infamous "Milgram" experiment conducted at Yale back in the early 1960s to test the psychological effects on students who were commanded by their professor to electrocute their classmates with an automobile battery.

    Most of the Foulgerites finally wised up to the fact that they were being used as guinea pigs in a Milgram-ian experiment to test the limits of obedience to an authority figure. In 2008 Davis commanded them to sell all their worldly goods, including their condos, and invest in RAS, Lehman Brothers, and other defunct companies. He wanted to see how many would jump off the cliff at his command. A lot of them did, never to be heard from again.

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