Hey, iHub....I've got a better idea.
IF you can convince Clarence to tell his social media game developers to code all of the 'house' dealers and croupiers as UNICORN avatars, I will sell you all of my shares at 4$ a share (half of your recent target), eat my loss in silence, and leave this MB forever....win-win for everyone.
Offer ends 6/17/2016
CORRECTION: No Monthly Payments. $3.2M at closing + 2 annual payments of $1.1M. Additional one-time payments of $780K. See details from 10Q below:
"...The purchase price will be paid out in installments over a 24-month period after closing, with approximately $3.2 million paid at closing and approximately $1.1 million to be paid on each of the first two anniversaries of the closing. Payment related to the restrictive covenants was paid after closing. GPI also paid to us an amount equal to four months’ rental for the Dolphin factory subject to a cap of $260,000 after closing and will pay a fixed sum of $520,000 for costs related to the termination of Dolphin employees within 60 days of closing...."
It seems that your "Welcome X$" target is as 'flexible' as a politician's position on a hot-button issue.
8$, 20$, 4$, now 3$....EGT has not closed @ 3$ since 7/24/2014 ... and the revenue outlook since then is worse. not better. Given that the accuracy of your PPS targets are poor at best, why bother with the PPS targets? Why not just share verifiable new information that you feel will affect the PPS (positively or otherwise).
Examples of an important question that you may have some back-channel insight into: (Per 10Q) Contracts for our three venues in the Philippines expire on June 30, 2016.
Will EGT successfully renew the Revenue Sharing contracts in all/any of the Philippines venues next month? If so, will the renewal include an upfront cash guarantee that will eat into EGT's Cash reserve?
If you are going to fantasize, then fantasize about something REALLY magical!
The reality is still that EGT will continue to trade in the 1.60 - 2.40 range on low volume as it has been trading for quite some time.
THAT WILL NOT CHANGE UNTIL EGT DELIVERS *RESULTS* that would suggest otherwise, but anyone that can see a 1-year chart can see that for themselves.
I stand corrected. 60% paid at closing (~3.54M) with the balance (~2.36M) paid out over 24 months (~100K/month)
I am glad that we are selling the Dolphin division. EGT was obviously incapable of CONSISTANTLY running a Casino chip mfg. business profitably if they are selling @ 35% below cost at ANY time - for ANY reason. I guess the Ho family is going to have to start paying full price for gaming chips to GPIC now.
(From Seeking Alpha Transcript)
"...We recorded a gross margin loss of $456,000 for this division, compared to a gross profit of $610,000 in the prior year period. The increase in the loss was primarily due to lower production volumes, which led to higher production inefficiencies and under-absorption of overhead costs for the gaming chips and plaques....."
This Dolphin divisional loss is just another example of why I am concerned about EGT's Management and staff's ability to CONSISTANTLY operate NEW business operations at a profit.
[Clarence Chung] "....2016 is a transitional year for the company where we are focusing our business operations with the sales of a legacy business and engaging in efforts to add new ones. We are committed to utilizing our resources to capitalize on the right opportunities in growing markets...."
Based on that, I am GUESSING:
- non-renewal on PI contracts in June.
- Eventual sale of NAGA EGMs to NAGA (best possible outcome for those 667 machines).
- Remaining EGM revenue sharing contracts not renewed after contract ends.
I sure hope that they come out of the gates with more positive results than excuses on these new ventures. EGT's history as a profitable company is 'spotty' at best and based on Clarence's comment above, the chance for profitable quarters for the rest of 2016 is not looking good.
EGT is going to 100!!!! (NOT)
Details are already available in the 4/22/2016 PR .
EGT **WILL NOT** receive 5.9 Million dollars in Cash on closing date ...It will take 24 months for EGT to get paid in full. Plus they get some additional non-specific "earn out payments" over the next 5 years.
"...Under the terms of the LOI, GPIC will acquire the assets of Dolphin including fixed assets, raw materials and inventory and intellectual property for an estimated cash purchase price of approximately $5.9 million, subject to physical inventory counts at closing. The purchase price will be paid out in installments over a 24-month period after closing. In addition, GPIC will make earn out payments to EGT over the next five years based on a varying percentage of net revenues on certain select sales to specific Asian-based casinos....."
EGT has been 'Cash Rich' for quite some time, but the PPS has been declining the whole time that Cash has been increasing, why would 5 mil more in Cash make any difference if EGT fails to operate at a profit and show revenue GROWTH on a consistent basis?
That 5 mil you tout is a one-time-shot that comes from cannibalizing the business and realistically it is just 5M more that HK200 gets to play with (since they control the company). The only thing that EGT has left to sell are their EGMs and possibly their contracts (if any survive the year and IF that is even allowed in the contract restrictions).
Can EGT "Live" off of 35M? Yes, but for how long? It will depend on the Cash burn rate of the new project(s).
Won't really know that burn rate for a few more Qs.
Has Cash been increasing and Debt been reducing over the last 5-8 years? Absolutely, Yes. This has been the single shining achievement of management. No question.
Here's a question for you. Has the loyal LT investor seen an increase in their PPS that is commensurate with the reduced Debt and increased Cash over that same timeframe? Unless your timing was perfect, if you bought EGT between the apex of the Pump n Dump in July 2012 and held until today you would be underwater - or at best @ break-even on a dead money investment.
Can you deny that?
In the foreseeable future, EGT is heading for hard times. Historically, Q1 is supposed to be a strong Q because of Chinese New Year, but EGT did not break even in Q1 - even though NAGA was still sharing WUD (for the last time).
Q2 Will be the first Q with NAGA LEASE replacing NAGA revenue sharing. We know that Revenue will drop significantly. Q2Q/Y2Y comparisons will be bad, and will most probably continue to be bad for the next 4 Qs until 3Q2017. On the plus side, Q3 will be the last Q remaining with Dolphin v. GPIC legal expenses . Expect a negative quarter.
Q3 Success will hinge on if EGT can renew all of their PI venue leases (which come up for renewal in June) with similar WUD % sharing agreements and no new 'up front' guarantee $$. No foreseeable legal expenses, but Social Gaming expenses will start to mount as deployment gets closer. Expect another negative quarter. If PI is not renewed, expect a 'fire sale' of EGMs in the warehouse to a used EGM reseller that could generate a little extra 1-time revenue. With only 600 EGMs deployed and EGT focusing on new ventures, we don't need a whole lot of EGMs sitting idle in the warehouse and depreciating daily.
Q4 We hope that Social Gaming is successfully deployed and we see the first wave of new revenue. Once we get a feel for what Social Gaming contributes to the bottom line, a 2017 forecast may be more favorable. Depending on the revenue from social gaming, EGT could break even.
1Q2017, Since 1Q2016 was a loss, EGT could possibly compare favorably Q2Q and Y2Y if social gaming gets some traction.
A year is a long time to tread water and EGT may find other revenue opportunities to spend their cash hoard on.
Wall street will reward EGT based on its ability to perform and punish it for failure. Recently stocks have been punished more severely that they have been rewarded. So buckle up, because the road has some rough patches ahead.
Or as CC would say, The above "is what I THINK that I know" :-)
Even though you understated my EGT holdings, what I do have is unarguably insignificant compared to that of Melco or Chung (or probably you). if EGT's PPS keeps falling, ALL of our holdings will be valued in the 'hundreds' - even yours.
Please answer these questions.
1. What moves in the last 5 years has EGT made that have benefited shareholders?
2. Do you think most current LT (retail/institutional ) shareholders are holding shares with a positive ROI?
3. Is the company operating at a profit?
4. Is Melco's Shelf purchase of EGT stock currently underwater?
5. You say, "Trust Management because they have invested so much money in EGT".
- Has Management executed all of their Multi-million dollar plans successfully?
- Dreamland Casinos? no.
- Dreamland slot halls? Down to two Hotel slot halls in Cambodia, one of which is in a remote Hotel that has whole wings of the building shut down and three relatively small venues in the PI with contracts coming up for renewal next month. aka marginal success.
- Gaming Table Hardware? gave that division up in a lawsuit to cover legal fees.
- Dolphin? probably got a positive return over the LT because of brother-in-law sales and by chopping the company up and selling off the pieces, but never really ramped up that division to be competitive in the general market at ANY level.
I will 'Trust Management' when they have demonstrated that they can succeed on an ongoing basis. Being debt free and having a cash hoard is an accounting success but not really a business venture success and since the company is now operating in the red, that cash hoard is exposed to attrition by operating expenses.
EGT is debt free and has 30+ million is free Cash, Complete control of EGT's Cash was the prize Melco wanted - and they got it through the shelf offering.
because 2Q2016 will be the first Q with NAGA LEASE (only) revenue and not NAGA WUD-Sharing Revenue. I have not yet had a chance to listen to/read the CC.
Hope some of you are able to dial into CC and ask questions of EGT management team. Most of us have the same concerns about the future of EGT and if the newly announced Social Game will be a viable revenue stream. This is the last chance you will have to get answers t direct questions. I will be unable to listen live due to work constraints but look forward to reading your questions (and Management's answers) in the CC transcript that is typically published several days aft the call.
Don't forget that ALL Philippines revenue sharing contracts come up for renewal NEXT MONTH (just a few weeks from now). Hopefully we will get good news about those on the Call also, but if not mentioned, it my be worth inquiring about.
Good Luck. We need it.
On this MB, real FACTS are scarce and projections for PPS are vague in timescope (ie 'soon') and WAY past ridiculous for targets (some were over 11+x the current PPS of 1.78).
The reality is that EGT trades in an aprox +/- 10% band centered on 2.00 a share and has for quite a while. Management has done little to boost PPS in many years and to expect different behavior now that it is a controlled company is unrealistic.
iHub, with respect, NOTHING that happens on this MB affects EGT positively OR negatively. It is a 'chat' site.
That is a very good question for your back-channel EGT IR contact (or even better for the Q&A at the end the CC on 5/12).
As I have said before, now that EGT is a 'Controlled Company' (see 10K for details) , it seems that realistically/functionally EGT has been reorganized as an 'internally-funded' new concept testing division of Melco/HK200. Projects like this Social Gaming App and any other new unicorn projects are developed by EGT because EGT has the available cash to internally fund these 'test' projects. If the project is a 'Win', great!, if it bombs, shut it down and go to Unicorn project number next.
Keep in mind that with the selling of Dolphin facility, the EGT staff has been reduced to a skeleton crew so there are limits to what they CAN do. EGT had to hire an entire new development staff that specializes in developing and deploying 'Social Gaming apps' and build out the development and production infrastructure at a projected cost of over 6 million bucks for 2016 alone with a disclaimer that they may run out of cash in 2016 (see 10K for details)
Looking forward to reading your questions (and the company answers) in the EGT CC transcript .
Ri8ght now we don't have a working product nor do we have an announced release date. So no matter what the revenue model turns out to be, it will not generate ANY revenue until it is deployed and builds up a decent sized customer base.
Fair question: The only thing that I can think of offhand is 'advertising'. Most free games have banners and/or popups. But if I were going to spend money, I would be spending it with the game hat has the largest installed base and more importantly the largest active player base (2 different things) so and can get max eyeballs on my ad.
Don't know if the 'tough conditions' are good or bad or Social Game...But even though the economy is slowing, everyone that can still afford a smartphone can also afford a "Free" game.
From 'The Australian Business Review'
"...Despite the tough conditions in Macau, Mr Ho was optimistic about the region’s outlook, saying that supported by the central government’s long term infrastructure blueprint, Macau was undergoing a transition towards a more mass market-focused business model.
“Looking ahead, although Macau is encountering a very tough operating environment, with a combination of the slowdown of economic growth in China and government policies that may adversely affect the gaming market, we believe our business approaches are in line with the government’s new direction from a macroeconomic and social perspective,” he said...."