iHub may very well know something about a potential significant new revenue stream that I do not. I do not speak to PR or to EGT mgmt at all - he may - again, I don't know. My posts reflect the current publically available facts about EGTs performance, reported EGM trends in the gaming industry overall, and the SE Asian economic conditions which affect disposable income of gamers. Those facts do not substantiate a double from here (in my opinion).
It will take something VERY NEW and different to allow EGT to ride the wave of another PnD. PnDs are most effective where there is a LACK of facts and data. The revenue potential of slot parlors and casinos the SE Asian market (specifically Cambodia) have now been well documented in EGT's quarterly statements over a number of years. EGT has large slot parlors embedded in newly-built resort hotels, small boutique company-owned casinos in Cambodian border towns, revenue-sharing venues in the biggest casino in Cambodia, and several flavors in-between. EGT's PPS will steadily increase if the company shows sustained Q-after-Q revenue growth, and a sustained Q-after-Q EPS growth (which would in itself be something 'new'). Given the mixed success of EGT's last radical "new venture" (EGT-owned boutique casinos), I would prefer to see EGT grow methodically and organically - not magically.
A 4.00 PPS today = a .25 PPS pre 2xRS. Recall that EGT was @ about .26 before it took off on its PnD rollercoaster ride. At that time EGT was generating a .01-.02 quarterly EPS (helped by Dolphin non-gaming revenue). EGT is not generating that level of profit today (.16 - .32 Quarterly EPS).
We have aroundt the same number of EGMs in service today as we did back then, but today the EGMs seem to be better placed. We also have a leaner organizational cost-structure, a cash hoard, and no debt. Based on all of thIs, is EGT undervalued today? Probably - but not by 50%.
The last target was 8/share, now iHub has backtracked to a more humble magiical guess of 4/share before end of year citing previous 2 quarters of modest positive EPS as the reason why EGT will double from here. Unless EGT reveals a SIGNIFICANT *NEW* revenue stream in Q4 that has immediate impact on income, there is not much hope of a double by end of year and 8/share was always a comical guess given current conditions.
It the real world, the previous two quarters are already long baked into the PPS. Slot play is DOWN world-wide. China's economic growth has SLOWED down from a sprint to a stumble and the Chinese government is desparately trying to prop up their market. If EGT cobbles together a positive EPS quarter in Q3 (and Q4) you could see a small incremental increase in the trading range, but remember you have to divide the EPS by 16 to compare to pre-2xRS earnings, so by that measure, the .10/share EPS in Q2 is still a sub .01 EPS pre-2XRS. That does not warrant a double by any realistic measure.
To complicate matters further, the NAGA contract comes up for renewal in 2016Q1 (and NAGA is the ONLY revenue stream keeping EGT afloat). There are multiple new MAJOR players in SE Asia now, and NAGA is the best EGM revenue producer in the region and it has the strongest barrier to competition. Expect bidding for the NAGA contract to be fierce. Next year will determine if EGT remains listed and has ANY hope of being a noticible player in the SE Asia market. Time will tell. It always does, and we don't have very long to wait to find out.
What does EGT have going for it right now?
It's a reliable tax offset for profits made on other investments? I cannot think of much else.
But who knows what the future holds, EGT Management may abandon boutique casinos (selling them at a loss, of course) ...and maybe get into a SE Asia version of an Ashley Madison website?
I (hope) don't think that we will have another negative earnings report this quarter, so the question for the board is: How good will it be?
1. Break Even -- No more empty excuses. Time to rethink either the business plan or the people in operational management running the business plan.
2. .32 (Greater Than .02 pre-RSx2) -- Good. Best results in many years
Note: Chinese New Year (2/19/2015) did not drive up Q1 Earnings, and nothing spectacular announced for Q2..infact, nothing AT ALL was announced.
Rumors of a 'chip deal' to parent company and a new revenue stream remain unconfirmed by EGT Management.
Economic conditions in China are weak. Growth has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. This may not affeect retail gamblers but it will definitely have an effect on VIPs.
If earnings are lackluster again, maybe Melco should take EGT private and not be worried if EGT (as a division of MELCO) is operated profitably or not. At least they could use the loss to directly offset earnings from their other more profitable divisions. Casino Chip sales are almost exclusively associated with MELCO properties, so they could shutter the plant until new properties are built and dispense with the obvious pretense that it is anything more than a in-house manufacturing operation.
Any aditional revenue would be great (even if the only Casinos we seem to be able to sell chips to these days are owned by our 'in-laws'); but I have to wonder what the profit margin will be if Melco (majority % owner of EGT Stock) is essentially selling chips to themselves?
NAGA is practically the ONLY contributor to our BOTTOM line.
Not only does NAGA account for 42% of all of our EGMs currently in service, but all other venues are generating a WUD that is only a fraction of what NAGA generates.
So did EGT make a profit or lose money in Q2?
Reply with guesses and include the logic behind your guess please. Magical thinking not appreciated.
I am guessing that they either broke even at best or lost money. No big win for EPS. I say that because if Chinese New Year did not generate a big EPS, then I am guessing that Q2 probably will not either (no new big Casino chip deals announced either)
I still have the shares that I kept when I sold into the Pump n Dump. Those shares essentially have a net 0.00 cost basis for me if I factor in the profit I made selling into the Pump n Dump. If I look at those same shares based on purchase price, I am underwater.
I have not heard ANYTHING from Management that would make me want to invest in EGT today and evidintly, based on the extremely low volume, neither has the market in general. We have had 16x worth of reverse splits over the past yeart or so. All things being equal we should REGULARLY generate .16 - .32 EPS just to MATCH the .01-.02 EPS that EGT generated pre-RS. That has not happened. Not even close.
So until EGT Management can consistantly demonstrate that they can profitable execute their busiess model in the SE Asian market that they have defined for themselves, and deliver that experience quarter-after-quarter, I will just hang on to what I have. I have no interest in averaging down at this time - that would just be throwing good money after bad.
You asked - I answered.
In what world is just unjustifiable (unless it is the MM that is squeezing EGT for profit)
Float: 4.43 M shares
Traded Shares: 4,501
Percentage of Float Churned: (.102 rounded UP)
Change in PPS: 15.31%
I will take the gain gladly, but I have no confidince that it will stick. We need sustained growth over time based upon regular increases in (or at least consistant) revenue and bottom-line profits if we are going to crawl out of this hole and stay out of it.
+ .18 ( 8.26%) on 11,000 share traded.
String 9 more days like that together back-to-back; EGTwill be bumping up against 4 bucks and we will get some attention.from the market with EGT ID'd as a stock with strong upward momentum.
That is only 2 grand a day. A tax rounding error for MELCO.
How far below 2 do you think that EGT will fall?
2015Q2 ends in less than 2 weeks. Q1 is typically a big Q because of Chinese New Year, and it was a bust for EGT. Next earnings call is not until August and we will be in quiet period related to Q2 earnings.
A 2.00 PPS is = 12.5 cents pre R/S and when EGT was that low, it was before the Dreamland casino and Slot halls that are currently in operation.
We have an aging EGM and cabinet inventory that will eventually need to be upgraded or replaced
Competitors, both large and small are entering the SE Asia Market and will be jockeying for the NagaWorld contract in early March 2016
As other posters have noted, volume is horrible and swings the PPS up/down on less than a thousand (or hundreds) share trades.
Chung is silent. No new announce contracts. No new announced chip sales of any size. No announced road shows from IR to promote investment. No analyst coverage (and associated Institutional activity).
I realize the inherent negativity of the facts in this post (thumbs down welcome from fact deniers), but as a counter-balance , I would LOVE to hear some POSITIVE FACTS related to EGT in its current position other than the tired old "We are debt free and have X millions in the bank" chatter. Those are transitional statuses and will certainly be eroded over time if EGT does not develop any new revenue streams: new EGM revenue sharing contracts, new Dreamland Casino, new Chip contracts...SOMETHING/ANYTHING that makes the market think that this is a viable and active player in the SE Asia small casino market and not just a dying branch on the MELCO tree.
So come on cheerleaders. Post some FACTUAL positive info. It would be a nice improvement to the recent content on the EGT message board.
Today's one-day volume of 55,720 shares is MORE share volume than EGT's combined trading volume from 5/21/2015 - 6/10/2015.
Yup. Only 55,400 shares traded over the previous 14 trading days...and one of those days (6/9/2015) there were 0 trades... ZERO!
Reality is SO much more bizarre than fiction.
I love the thumbs down. Thank you Ostrich Investor, whoever you are. Your hole in the sand awaits you. I guess there is no place in some people's world for honest verifiable facts. This poorly researched attempt at iHUB hype inspired only 2,566 shares traded today which is about 1/3 of the current average daily shares traded. Again another fact.
Looking at SE Asia boutique casino operator Donaco's (DNA.AX) robust and well organized IR communications, it makes me sad to think of what EGT COULD have been had it only had a better operational management team. Chung is good, probably very good, but he has surrounded himself with mediocrity (and that is being generous) and so we continue to reap the deaf ear of wall street that EGT has sowed with its IR silence and poor growth choices - the sole exception being Nagaworld which was the pearl casino of the entire country of Cambodia. Seeing the poor choices since EGT acquired the Nagaworld contract, getting that deal may have been a happy accident. We will see if they can gold on to their last straw of hope when the contract come up for renewal in February 2016.
Bring on the Thumbs!
Guess you didn't read the Donnaco Revised Investor Presentation documentation on the Donaco website (see p.12 and p.23):
"The vendor of Star Vegas will manage the property for two years post completion of the aquisition
Donaco will appoint a CFO for Star vegas and will have full oversight of operations
Vendor will not be paid the usual fees for management services which are typically based upon a flat monthly fee plus a share of revenue. However, if the property reaches target of US $60m EBIDTA per year, vendor will be paid 25% of NPAT as a Management Fee
Vendor has agreed to provide a non-compete with Star Vegas"
Based on this info, the answer to your question seems to be, "No",.
Although teh vendor for Stat Vegas was not specified, International Gaming Asia identified other revenue share operators in Cambodia (ie EGT Competition)
Silver Heritage (which also operated machines in NagaWorld)
Malysia's Waz Lian Group
Manufacturer/Distribitor RGB International
Cambodia's Golden Tree
Australia's Info Pacific Gaming
These competitors are ALL going to be making a play for NagaWorld when the contract comes up for renewal soon. If EGT does not win Naga for another 5-7 year contract term, it will get squeezed out of Cambodia (and out of business) because the other properties cannot sustain EGT.
2.75 is still only .172 pre-split. If you have been around a while you may recall that we sat @ .26ish for weeks pre-pump-n-dump / pre-RS with debt up to our ears and no Dreamland casinos/slot-halls in operation. The market is not giving EGT credit for eliminating debt, building a cash position, or opening a boutique Casino or large slot-hall.
With the exception of 5/14/2015, volume has been unremarkable as well. If we do not get some significant volume behind these increases in PPS then I am afraid these higher prices are vulnerable to rollback on any significant sell.
We all know that we had two 1:4 RSs which reduced the outstanding share count by 16x. So an EPS (pre both RSs) of .01 would be the same as an EPS of .16 today. The EPS of .04 is one fourth of the EPS that EGT was generating not that long ago. What happened to the revenue?
It is nice to see the company FINALLY make a net profit after 3 out of 4 negative quarters in 2014 and they are going to NEED EVERY PENNY of the 20M Cash hoard for the NAGA up front guaranteed commitment fee if we are going to keep the NAGA contract (which comes up for renewal on 2/28/2016) ,
I still would like to see 4 quarters IN A ROW that are profitable and an ongoing QUARTERLY EPS north of .32 (which is only .02/sh pre RSs) before I start singing Kumbya around the EGT campfire.
All in all...not quarter but any net profit is better than a loss.
A .04 EPS in this Quarter = 1/4 of a penny EPS pre 2xRS
.01 Pre 2x RS = .16 today, so 570K profit is not very good compared to some of the historical quarters...
below that is uncharted freefall. 1.60 = .10 pre 2x Reverse Splits
Guess we will find out in Mid-May if EGT is capable of showing a positive EPS with this 16x reduced share count.