...only trading 2000 shares/day. The last 'Pump-n-Dump' also had a spike in volume. You can't dump until you pump and pumping means setting up a honey trap for momo players, That honey trap needs10s of thousands+ of share volume traded on multiple sequential days/weeks to prime the pump.
This is not happening now , is it? All we've seen is one-day spikes, but the volume and price fall right back down the next day. No conviction...because Management is on the knife-edge of losing it all or staying in business for 5-6 more years.
NAGA is coming.
iHub may very well know something about a potential significant new revenue stream that I do not. I do not speak to PR or to EGT mgmt at all - he may - again, I don't know. My posts reflect the current publically available facts about EGTs performance, reported EGM trends in the gaming industry overall, and the SE Asian economic conditions which affect disposable income of gamers. Those facts do not substantiate a double from here (in my opinion).
It will take something VERY NEW and different to allow EGT to ride the wave of another PnD. PnDs are most effective where there is a LACK of facts and data. The revenue potential of slot parlors and casinos the SE Asian market (specifically Cambodia) have now been well documented in EGT's quarterly statements over a number of years. EGT has large slot parlors embedded in newly-built resort hotels, small boutique company-owned casinos in Cambodian border towns, revenue-sharing venues in the biggest casino in Cambodia, and several flavors in-between. EGT's PPS will steadily increase if the company shows sustained Q-after-Q revenue growth, and a sustained Q-after-Q EPS growth (which would in itself be something 'new'). Given the mixed success of EGT's last radical "new venture" (EGT-owned boutique casinos), I would prefer to see EGT grow methodically and organically - not magically.
A 4.00 PPS today = a .25 PPS pre 2xRS. Recall that EGT was @ about .26 before it took off on its PnD rollercoaster ride. At that time EGT was generating a .01-.02 quarterly EPS (helped by Dolphin non-gaming revenue). EGT is not generating that level of profit today (.16 - .32 Quarterly EPS).
We have aroundt the same number of EGMs in service today as we did back then, but today the EGMs seem to be better placed. We also have a leaner organizational cost-structure, a cash hoard, and no debt. Based on all of thIs, is EGT undervalued today? Probably - but not by 50%.
The last target was 8/share, now iHub has backtracked to a more humble magiical guess of 4/share before end of year citing previous 2 quarters of modest positive EPS as the reason why EGT will double from here. Unless EGT reveals a SIGNIFICANT *NEW* revenue stream in Q4 that has immediate impact on income, there is not much hope of a double by end of year and 8/share was always a comical guess given current conditions.
It the real world, the previous two quarters are already long baked into the PPS. Slot play is DOWN world-wide. China's economic growth has SLOWED down from a sprint to a stumble and the Chinese government is desparately trying to prop up their market. If EGT cobbles together a positive EPS quarter in Q3 (and Q4) you could see a small incremental increase in the trading range, but remember you have to divide the EPS by 16 to compare to pre-2xRS earnings, so by that measure, the .10/share EPS in Q2 is still a sub .01 EPS pre-2XRS. That does not warrant a double by any realistic measure.
To complicate matters further, the NAGA contract comes up for renewal in 2016Q1 (and NAGA is the ONLY revenue stream keeping EGT afloat). There are multiple new MAJOR players in SE Asia now, and NAGA is the best EGM revenue producer in the region and it has the strongest barrier to competition. Expect bidding for the NAGA contract to be fierce. Next year will determine if EGT remains listed and has ANY hope of being a noticible player in the SE Asia market. Time will tell. It always does, and we don't have very long to wait to find out.
What does EGT have going for it right now?
It's a reliable tax offset for profits made on other investments? I cannot think of much else.
But who knows what the future holds, EGT Management may abandon boutique casinos (selling them at a loss, of course) ...and maybe get into a SE Asia version of an Ashley Madison website?
I (hope) don't think that we will have another negative earnings report this quarter, so the question for the board is: How good will it be?
1. Break Even -- No more empty excuses. Time to rethink either the business plan or the people in operational management running the business plan.
2. .32 (Greater Than .02 pre-RSx2) -- Good. Best results in many years
Note: Chinese New Year (2/19/2015) did not drive up Q1 Earnings, and nothing spectacular announced for Q2..infact, nothing AT ALL was announced.
Rumors of a 'chip deal' to parent company and a new revenue stream remain unconfirmed by EGT Management.
Economic conditions in China are weak. Growth has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. This may not affeect retail gamblers but it will definitely have an effect on VIPs.
If earnings are lackluster again, maybe Melco should take EGT private and not be worried if EGT (as a division of MELCO) is operated profitably or not. At least they could use the loss to directly offset earnings from their other more profitable divisions. Casino Chip sales are almost exclusively associated with MELCO properties, so they could shutter the plant until new properties are built and dispense with the obvious pretense that it is anything more than a in-house manufacturing operation.