They would get the #$%$ sued out of them if they tried to take EGT private using the current depressed PPS as the benchmark.
Excluding lawsuits for a moment, I guess you could reasonbably arge that the Shelf Offering was the first step in that process.
From a business perspective it would make sense if EGT were a privately held company. As a private organization (or a division or a larger organization) they would not be as pressured to be profitable every quarter and they could continue to stumble along, as they have for the last 3 years, from one bad idea to the next w/o having to answer to shareholders for their bad choices and decisions.
Still sub .01 EPS compared to pre-RS and this statement did not exactly fill me with confidince, "we have been active in our efforts to secure new projects, in existing and new businesses, that would enable us to best capitalize on growth opportunities in gaming markets in Asia and, ultimately, replace cash flow from NagaWorld in the event we do not renew this contract by March 2016."....NAGA represents a significant % of EGT's revenue and is the mnost productive venue by 40%-50% per EGM..
Has EGT demonstrated clearly that they can successfully develop and pursue new revenue streams? My opinion is 'No'; here's why I think that...
*The Pailin debacle
*Thansur Bokor and Dreamworld Poipet not pulling in anything close "Naga-like WUD" as originally hyped; in fact thay are only making "small, yet positive, contributions to overall revenue growth"
* P.I. is generating 1/4 Naga WUD. The the P.I. WUD dropped 18% - down to 59 - and probably will continue to do so as The Mega caninos in the PI pull in all of the visitor traffic and small Casinos are frequented only by locals. Ther are truck stop slot parlors with more EGMs than some of the PI casinos.
* Based on this quarter's results, EGT is operating @ about a 25% profit margin in their Gaming Products division. The success of that division is VERY closely tied to Melco. If NAGA revenue goes away, can Melco (and/or the Ho family operations) open enough new casinos (or rerack) year-in-and-year-out to keep EGT's casino chip business afloat?
* Lastly, share volume. EGT has done little to effectively drive share volume (other than a 'shelf-offering' sale that insiders could use to infuse a life-support shot in the arm into EGT that they do not have to show on their books and a payable or pay back ). If no new revenue rabbit gets pulled out of the hat in the next 2 Qs, and they do not renew NAGA in March, EGT goes sub 1.00, gets delisted, and is taken private for pennies on the dollar.
Hope that EGT Management discusses on the CC what they plan to do to generate some wall street interrest in EGT before it fades into COMPLETE invisibility .
The CEO is supposed to be looking out for Shareholders (including himself - as one of the largest shareholders).If any of you are on that call, I think that is a fair and reasonable question to ask.
Cambodia casino operator NagaCorp Ltd says it has concluded a 10-year deal with what it describes as “four independent third parties” for them to run a revamped, 300-unit, electronic gaming machine (EGM) business at its flagship NagaWorld resort in Phnom Penh.
The investors and NagaCorp will jointly manage and operate the EGM business, it said. The casino operator will be entitled to 70 percent of the revenue generated from it, and the outside investors the remaining 30 percent, said a NagaCorp filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after trading hours on Thursday.
One of the four investors in the new EGM zone at NagaWorld is an individual referred to only as “Jinfu” and said to be the owner of Central Asia Group Co Ltd. According to its website the firm is a Guangdong-based electric light manufacturer.
Under the new EGM management deal agreed on Thursday, the four parties will pay US$40 million – a sum already pledged by one of the parties in return for exclusive negotiations according to a NagaCorp filing on May 6.
In addition, the investors have agreed to deposit another US$10 million with NagaCorp “at a later date and in joint consultation with Naga,” to purchase “state-of-art EGMs” to be placed in the revamped area.
The other three investors in the EGM area are Cambodia-incorporated firms Top Summit Garment Inc; Jin He Tai Construction Co Ltd; and CMC Phnom Penh Import Export Co Ltd.
EGT Contract Renewal with NAGA in 1Q2016 will either be VERY expensive or it will not happen...
Hard to get to a 2.5x+ PPS (and associated 2.5x+ enterprise valuation) when EGT is only trading 883 shares in a day.
Face it. There is no interest in EGT by Wall Street and Management is doing nothing to make the stock more interestING to Commercial or even Retail investors ...so here we sit ...trading sideways at the historical low end of our historical trading range (2.29 = .1431 pre 2x RS).
Not sure what you are basing that estimate from but Macau has been having a rough quarter according to Bloomberg
"Sands China Ltd. led gains in Macau casino stocks as the world’s biggest gambling hub reported revenue that was in line with the government’s estimate.
Sands China Ltd. surged 7.1 percent to HK$42.95 in Hong Kong trading, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. climbed 6.6 percent and MGM China Holdings Ltd. advanced 5.2 percent.
Total casino revenue fell 12 percent to 25.6 billion patacas ($3.2 billion) in September, the fourth straight month it’s declined. The figure, the biggest drop since June 2009, was expected to drop by 12 percent to 13 percent from a year earlier, state-controlled Teledifusao de Macau reported last week, citing the city’s Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam.
“You get the dynamic now whereas these gaming names have been so crushed that even a slight improvement is viewed positively,” Grant Govertsen at Union Gaming Group, said today. “You got a lot of investors who want to be in these names looking for an entry point.”
Wynn Macau Ltd. climbed 4.8 percent, SJM Holdings Ltd. advanced 5.5 percent and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. gained 3.6 percent.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on corruption has dented spending by high-stakes gamblers in Macau, the only place in China where casinos are legal. Pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong may have caused mainland Chinese to defer their usual joint Hong Kong-Macau trips, Govertsen wrote in a note yesterday.
“Mass market casino foot traffic -- especially at the big-box casinos on Cotai -- and certain instances of table games minimums, was lower than we expected,” he said. Casino companies have been opening resorts on the Cotai Strip, Asia’s answer to the Las Vegas Strip.
About 20 percent to 25 percent of mainland travelers to Macau also go to Hong Kong on the same trip, said Karen Tang, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG...."
...only trading 2000 shares/day. The last 'Pump-n-Dump' also had a spike in volume. You can't dump until you pump and pumping means setting up a honey trap for momo players, That honey trap needs10s of thousands+ of share volume traded on multiple sequential days/weeks to prime the pump.
This is not happening now , is it? All we've seen is one-day spikes, but the volume and price fall right back down the next day. No conviction...because Management is on the knife-edge of losing it all or staying in business for 5-6 more years.
NAGA is coming.
iHub may very well know something about a potential significant new revenue stream that I do not. I do not speak to PR or to EGT mgmt at all - he may - again, I don't know. My posts reflect the current publically available facts about EGTs performance, reported EGM trends in the gaming industry overall, and the SE Asian economic conditions which affect disposable income of gamers. Those facts do not substantiate a double from here (in my opinion).
It will take something VERY NEW and different to allow EGT to ride the wave of another PnD. PnDs are most effective where there is a LACK of facts and data. The revenue potential of slot parlors and casinos the SE Asian market (specifically Cambodia) have now been well documented in EGT's quarterly statements over a number of years. EGT has large slot parlors embedded in newly-built resort hotels, small boutique company-owned casinos in Cambodian border towns, revenue-sharing venues in the biggest casino in Cambodia, and several flavors in-between. EGT's PPS will steadily increase if the company shows sustained Q-after-Q revenue growth, and a sustained Q-after-Q EPS growth (which would in itself be something 'new'). Given the mixed success of EGT's last radical "new venture" (EGT-owned boutique casinos), I would prefer to see EGT grow methodically and organically - not magically.
A 4.00 PPS today = a .25 PPS pre 2xRS. Recall that EGT was @ about .26 before it took off on its PnD rollercoaster ride. At that time EGT was generating a .01-.02 quarterly EPS (helped by Dolphin non-gaming revenue). EGT is not generating that level of profit today (.16 - .32 Quarterly EPS).
We have aroundt the same number of EGMs in service today as we did back then, but today the EGMs seem to be better placed. We also have a leaner organizational cost-structure, a cash hoard, and no debt. Based on all of thIs, is EGT undervalued today? Probably - but not by 50%.
The last target was 8/share, now iHub has backtracked to a more humble magiical guess of 4/share before end of year citing previous 2 quarters of modest positive EPS as the reason why EGT will double from here. Unless EGT reveals a SIGNIFICANT *NEW* revenue stream in Q4 that has immediate impact on income, there is not much hope of a double by end of year and 8/share was always a comical guess given current conditions.
It the real world, the previous two quarters are already long baked into the PPS. Slot play is DOWN world-wide. China's economic growth has SLOWED down from a sprint to a stumble and the Chinese government is desparately trying to prop up their market. If EGT cobbles together a positive EPS quarter in Q3 (and Q4) you could see a small incremental increase in the trading range, but remember you have to divide the EPS by 16 to compare to pre-2xRS earnings, so by that measure, the .10/share EPS in Q2 is still a sub .01 EPS pre-2XRS. That does not warrant a double by any realistic measure.
To complicate matters further, the NAGA contract comes up for renewal in 2016Q1 (and NAGA is the ONLY revenue stream keeping EGT afloat). There are multiple new MAJOR players in SE Asia now, and NAGA is the best EGM revenue producer in the region and it has the strongest barrier to competition. Expect bidding for the NAGA contract to be fierce. Next year will determine if EGT remains listed and has ANY hope of being a noticible player in the SE Asia market. Time will tell. It always does, and we don't have very long to wait to find out.
What does EGT have going for it right now?
It's a reliable tax offset for profits made on other investments? I cannot think of much else.
But who knows what the future holds, EGT Management may abandon boutique casinos (selling them at a loss, of course) ...and maybe get into a SE Asia version of an Ashley Madison website?
I (hope) don't think that we will have another negative earnings report this quarter, so the question for the board is: How good will it be?
1. Break Even -- No more empty excuses. Time to rethink either the business plan or the people in operational management running the business plan.
2. .32 (Greater Than .02 pre-RSx2) -- Good. Best results in many years
Note: Chinese New Year (2/19/2015) did not drive up Q1 Earnings, and nothing spectacular announced for Q2..infact, nothing AT ALL was announced.
Rumors of a 'chip deal' to parent company and a new revenue stream remain unconfirmed by EGT Management.
Economic conditions in China are weak. Growth has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. This may not affeect retail gamblers but it will definitely have an effect on VIPs.
If earnings are lackluster again, maybe Melco should take EGT private and not be worried if EGT (as a division of MELCO) is operated profitably or not. At least they could use the loss to directly offset earnings from their other more profitable divisions. Casino Chip sales are almost exclusively associated with MELCO properties, so they could shutter the plant until new properties are built and dispense with the obvious pretense that it is anything more than a in-house manufacturing operation.
Any aditional revenue would be great (even if the only Casinos we seem to be able to sell chips to these days are owned by our 'in-laws'); but I have to wonder what the profit margin will be if Melco (majority % owner of EGT Stock) is essentially selling chips to themselves?
NAGA is practically the ONLY contributor to our BOTTOM line.
Not only does NAGA account for 42% of all of our EGMs currently in service, but all other venues are generating a WUD that is only a fraction of what NAGA generates.
So did EGT make a profit or lose money in Q2?
Reply with guesses and include the logic behind your guess please. Magical thinking not appreciated.
I am guessing that they either broke even at best or lost money. No big win for EPS. I say that because if Chinese New Year did not generate a big EPS, then I am guessing that Q2 probably will not either (no new big Casino chip deals announced either)
I still have the shares that I kept when I sold into the Pump n Dump. Those shares essentially have a net 0.00 cost basis for me if I factor in the profit I made selling into the Pump n Dump. If I look at those same shares based on purchase price, I am underwater.
I have not heard ANYTHING from Management that would make me want to invest in EGT today and evidintly, based on the extremely low volume, neither has the market in general. We have had 16x worth of reverse splits over the past yeart or so. All things being equal we should REGULARLY generate .16 - .32 EPS just to MATCH the .01-.02 EPS that EGT generated pre-RS. That has not happened. Not even close.
So until EGT Management can consistantly demonstrate that they can profitable execute their busiess model in the SE Asian market that they have defined for themselves, and deliver that experience quarter-after-quarter, I will just hang on to what I have. I have no interest in averaging down at this time - that would just be throwing good money after bad.
You asked - I answered.