And Buffet said "In the short term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long term, the market is a weighing machine." So basically, one day doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. Talk to me next month., after I've bought more and made a few bucks.
I learned long ago that those with no stake that do a lot of talking are almost always wrong. Why don't you troll on a board where you do have an investment?
Why such an OTM Put? You paid a lot of cash for that one. I sold 88 Puts and 99 Calls that should both expire worthless if all goes right. And I was given a healthy chunk of change for both of them and really wouldn't mind if either one were ITM.
Does anyone really buy a car because of an ad? Well maybe a moron or two but c'mon man are you for real? Sure getting info out on a new product might help sales but most people don't buy Greek yogurt because Jamie Lee Curtis tells them to. Come up with a better reason for being short going into earnings.
Would love to see 60, but why should we expect it? Realistically, this quick $10 run up is on no news. Hence, the only explanation is the anticipation of the NDA. I can't see it moving much higher now until the announcement. If anything,as time goes on without any news, it might start to slip. Understand that I'm long and plan on staying here, I just can't see any reason for it to go higher now.
If your asking about my assertion that option traders get it wrong, there are studies all over the place that show 75% of options expire worthless. For Puts it runs over 80%. Countless "experts" are out there selling programs that supposedly will show us how to trade options profitably, they wouldn't do that if there wasn't a market. Just follow any of the fast trader guys on CNBC and see how often the fast money gets it wrong. Most option strategies count on one big score to make up for many smaller losses. Don't get me wrong, I trade options. But the assertion that option trading is some crystal ball into the future of the stock price can get you into trouble. It works until it doesn't.
You sound bitter, eating huge losses can do that to you. I have rarely posted here since I sold 18 months or so ago, but my posts have been consistent. When these funds got to premiums exceeding 8% they got expensive, dangerously so when the premiums exceeded double digits. An historical review would have shown you that the premiums tended to disappear during every market pullback. The last two years have been an exception, but inevitably the chickens have come home to roost. You didn't have to be in the industry to see this coming, but console yourself with that idiocy if you must..
The stock is up $4 in a week and you write garbage like this? What is wrong with you? The Kardashian's must be in rerun mode and you have time on your hands.
Can't fault you for getting out after such a beating. But don't look to option trading as a crystal ball into the future. Option traders get it wrong as often as stock traders do, sometimes more so.
Foolish question regarding average returns over the next decade. Anyone that thinks like that is asking to be burned. Even if you buy and hold you should be constantly reevaluating your holdings. I held NCV/NCZ for years from the 5's into the 9's and got out when the premiums got too high. GABUX, ORC and PSEC were all great investments for awhile until they began to rot away. The better question to ask yourself is why didn't you see the writing on the wall and bail out before NCV/NCZ dropped so precipitously? Another good question to ask yourself is why do you believe it will turn around anytime soon? There are better and safer places for your money right now. Until that changes there is no reason to buy or even hold here.
I took a different route and sold July 35 Puts. If we get any kind of a bounce this week I'm out. If not, then I own it for roughly $31.50, which I can live with.
Consider the refiners. As the price of oil drops the refiners get the benefit and have been doing okay in this market.
One of the problems with Zacks is that their ratings can and do change every day. I have a portfolio set up with them and the daily updates are crazy, from a 3 to a 2 to a 3 to a 4, all within a one week span. They may think a company is great but if the stock goes down then they immediately start lowering their rating. And if the stock rallies then they suddenly like it again. Not trying to discourage you but Zack's ratings have no consistency and shouldn't be relied on for much of anything.
Jacal. all you had to do was pull up a 5 year comparison chart between this fund and its NAV and you would see that it is quite common for the premium to disappear for a very short time. The last 2 years have been an exceptional period but this is not surprising.
Historically these funds have always dropped back to 3-5% premium for a time before heading back up towards 10%. Anything above 7-8% should have been considered extremely risky. The last couple of years have been unusual in that the premium stayed very high, probably people chasing yield. Now all you are seeing is a normal fall back to a more reasonable level. I bailed a bit early two years ago because of those high premiums but anyone that thought 13-18% was sustainable deserves to get slaughtered here.
You're an uninformed idiot about fracking that has bought into all the hysteria and ignored the science. As for earthquakes, 100 years is a mere pittance of time and unworthy of discussion. The world has always had earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunami's, and natural disasters. It's only been in the last 100 years that populations and science has grown enough to notice/record them all.
It's no more pathetic than shorts crying that the sky is falling. Face it, 95% of the drivel spouted on these msg boards is pathetic.
Half of all oil consumption is used for manufacturing, including that Tesla. Never buy anything made of rubber, plastic, steel....etc and maybe then you could say you'll never need fossil fuels.