Where do you read that it is Igor´s shares?
As I read it, it would be new shares only issued if Mechel defaults on debt.
These are new shares.
What is interesting is:
1: Conversion rate of debt / shares
2: Interest rate of debt.
Could you be kind and elaborate a bit?
Why has he been an enemy og Mechel?
Disputes over coal-concessions?
Seriously Pipster.... I do sincerely hope you are getting some help with that schizophrenia, your lines of thought does not always seem healthy :-/
Strong buy, on a psychiatrist for you.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Who said we were sure that it would lay still next 1-2 years? It is not an unlikely scenario, though it's hard to know when a cyclical rebound could come. They usually happen before the great news starts flowing.
I've read the earnings reports. What do you want to debate? Bring it :-)
I do not see you contributing anything...... or you just want to read alot of golden stuff?
"Sounds about right"... that is right... because it means deep#$%$ anyways, if correct or if it's 2.30. It's a pretty arbitrary number anyways. It's nok like it's a sure and definte number like Pi.
Since Mechel is a company living on state support, speculation about this is way more relevant that an acurate equity-number or volume of the daily trade.
So maybe some of us just knows Mechel better than you do ;-)
Equity on any company with other that cash or cash-equivalent assets is guess-work.
They are obligated to make best guesses possible by accounting standards, tough there would be some motivation towards trying not to get it too low.
1billion $ shareholder equity is not much in a company with 9 billion$ debt.
That is true.
It is mostly relevant in regards to dividends to preferred stock, since they are not onliged to pay dividends if shareholder equity is too low.
I think book value is likely most important in regards to preferred stock, since it affects liquidation value and the payment of dividends. Though the relevant one is the one according to russian accounting standards.
Anybody's russian? :-)
2,17$ by U.S accounting standards sounds right.
In november Mechel took a huge and deserved nosedive due to covenants broken, prosponed q3 earnings and the risk of bankruptcy.
Since then they have recovered a bit, but no where near before november.
If no news comes next few months I'd predict an increase in stock price closing the cap, since risk of bankruptcy seems avoided short and mid-term.
Though I would have thought the bounce back would go faster than it has so far.
What do you think? And if you agree what likely news in next 3 month will move Mechel stock?
Worst case still being a bankrupt of course.
In which case it wont matter much if we go down holding common or preferred, there will not be anything left to either :-)
Well..... there is always the risk I get screwed over preferred.
Mechel is very risky company with huge upside.
Preferred is even more so, on both accounts.
Do you hold preferred or common?
As for now, I do not care about Bluestone.
I hope Mechel has learned it's lesson and now knows what is best to do with it.
I am convinced of both Mechels huge risk and huge potential.
If one has decided to have an investet interest in Mechel, then it has to be decided whether this should be in common stock or the alternative of preferred stock.
This is what I am yet undecided about and trying to find out.
At the moment I hold both.
That is bad math mate, sorry.
1,20$ per share?
In russia it is trading at 1,05$ per share.
In U.S where you need 2/1 it is 0,88$ per share.
So that would be a premium at current prices, but hardly a convincing one when institutional holding would be bought at migher average prices.
So yeah... I would think they'd fight it if it could be fought.
What shareholders: East Capital AB sitting on somewhere between 10-20 million shares and so on? There are several.
They can only de-register the U.S depository. You would then get the russian shares instead.
I think they cannot easily de-list the russian shares, but I might be wrong.
I would not personally be able to fight them in court, but major shareholders would and I'd ride that.
There have been some cases in russia ruling towards minority shareholders and against abuse.
Got a friend whose shares got de-listed. He missed deadline un-intentionally but was eventually paid more than the initially price offered by russian court ruling.
That said, I can only speculate towards what Mechen can do with the preferred stock .
It is indeed pretty complicated stuff.
Actually they have allready been total dicks, making preferred share 2/1 ratio.
This generating twice the fee per russian preferred share.
One could hope the same would valid here, but I would not count on it.
For now the 2-3 cent fee is calculated in my expectations.
That fee does account for a good deal of the discount compared to russian listed preferred.
At the moment 17 cents per share. That difference would cover 3 years of fees only at current share prices :-/
I am not sure, how it would be "best for the company".... best as in terms of common owners?
On a short and mid-term time frame stock prices and classes do not matter on daily operations.
But of course it's on majority holders mind. So through that it would likely have effect.
Still. Even if they could spare 100$ buyback which CFO said is prosponed indefinately, how could they do it.
Buy free float or offer. I would not accept a 50 cent offer.
Maybe they could cancel the deposit of ADR´s
That would give foreigners a pretty hard time holding on to them.
Yeah. I have had the same thought. That the 100mil$ was meant for that.
Question is, can they afford to use even 100mil$? Not at the moment.
If they do propose a buy-back at a minor premium that would be interesting thing to consider.
If they got majority-hold and wanted to de-list rest of shares, it would have to be at equity value after
russian accounting standards... then we'd have to read their russian financial statements.... Oh-my!!!
At least I would make a profit on it.
They could make an offer for 50cents and maybe without a vote.
But it would not be mandetory, you could say no.
A more scary option would be liquidation of the share at equity value.
Though I'm pretty sure they cant do this without some sort of liquidation of whole company.
Interestingly enough, there has been several reports written on the discounted price of russian preferred stocks and reasons for this.
One of the conclusions is fear of common stock majority vote and following transfer of company wealth to these from preferred stock is one of the reasons.
But another conclusion is, that this very rarerly happens in practice and that the discount is too extreme most of the time. That this fear we have could be vastly overrated.