Disappointed in you Ben - LOL
I do not know why I get drawn into this. You asked about DNN and I made my quick analysis based on overall sector especially related on how oil is affecting energy overall.
I have not had much to really add as I have been busy with other things. Have been researching specific companies, but timing for entry is not right.
It is the other characters that have me laughing because they are unable to substantiate any reasoning behind why URG is going to make them all this money. Look at UUUU and what it has done for URZ shareholders. Very soon, URZ could be under $1 based on pre-buyout valuation. Actually, the EF deal has helped support URZ share price as it would have already tanked well below $1 without the buyout.
These U stocks all stink to high heaven right now and an actual Japanese restart will only provide a one or two day pop. Entry point will be key to making money on that pop because these stocks will likely all be lower by the time it happens.
BTW - I do not personally know Jetty, Deviateur, Vine, Evalyn or anyone here and have not interacted with them outside of this board. I also am not connected with any fund, enterprise, group, or other entity that has a financial interest in any of these U stocks.
Just here to share information based on my own research and sentiment. Hopefully, that is why Jetty, Deviateur, and others are here.
Thinking it is headed much lower. Look at the energy sector. Pressure across the board with depressed pricing in oil and gas. Coal is toast. Watching BTU today? A disaster. Looks like Energy Fuels pop from Russell inclusion was short-lived. Could be setting new lows next week. I continue to believe we are headed much lower. URG could be headed to .60s. I have been expecting DNN to head to the .50s for a long time.
I am not a buyer.
Start watching ARP. See what you think. Had liked potential for LINE and BBEP, but both seem to be in pretty bad shape. BBEP took on too much debt recently. Like OAS and SN, but cannot seem to time an entry point continuing to stay on sidelines.
Watched and traded PQ in the past and have stayed away. Look at SD in comparison. Toast.
Petroquashed - adj. - Description of one's investment in PetroQuest Energy.
Look at my post starting this thread. Energy sector is in very bad shape with oil leading the demise. Uranium stocks mostly sitting at or near lows (DNN, URA, URRE, URG, CCJ, etc.) with coal sector toasted (BTU, WLT, ACI, ANR) and most of oil/gas struggling to handle massive debt loads while black gold is in the dumps (SD, SN, BBEP, EOX, AREX, OAS, DO, LINE, RIG, and many more.)
How about rare Earth metals and other commodity based plays including gold/silver and fuel cell companies that are also struggling here (MCP, REE, MEA, AA, CHK, FCEL, PLUG, AUY, GORO, ANV and many more.)
Just picked a few. Way too many to list all of them here. Opportunities abound? Or, is the energy sector and other commodity struggles something that will lead to an overall market pullback or even a collapse?
Be careful of those opportunities. ANV and MCP already went BK. WLT, ACI, ANR, MEA are all very close. SD maybe? How much time for many of the others?
Ev - No need to apologize for sharing your thoughts as well.
The issue with a Fission play is that, like URZ and URG in the past for example, they will continue to need funding all the way through reaching production. I sense it will be much more costly to get at the uranium that they own and that is a big red flag. Even now, URZ and URG need more money to expand and grow.
Maybe Fission is similar to UEC and URRE as they just keep getting propped up when they need more funds. Then, over time, more dilution leads to less value per share.
Thus, I have stayed away from Fission. I have definitely stayed away from DNN, UEC, URRE, and PDN.TO and have avoided UUUU as well although now it looks like a safer play with URZ.
Totally agree. Somebody propped up share price all the way to $3 to do this capital raise with minimal dilution. Amazing.
Hate it for anyone that was buying this above $1.50 which is likely where it is headed again. Management bought more time for the company with this latest maneuver.
Wonder if anyone could trace who pushed the share price all the way up to $3?!?!
I appreciate the thoughtful response and continue to hope that you can put aside your concern about my motives when I post.
I was hugely disappointed in the direction that URZ management took here, but have started to understand their logic which was not necessarily aligned with shareholders interests. It was, of course, much easier to see why UUUU wanted URZ.
FWIW - I knew you had a large long-term investment with URZ and I was disappointed for you and others that expected so much more. Continuing to hold Energy Fuels is questionable considering the weakness in the sector. However, EF appears to have positioned themselves to survive with the purchase of URZ. URG may turn out to be the better play. Just continue to be concerned about cash needs going forward and their higher debt situation.
What do you think of Fission Energy from a valuation perspective considering they are an exploration company? They look to be sitting on a huge amount of uranium, although it is sitting under water.
Lurking and enjoying the posts.
Also, in a state of depression watching another of my favorite trading stocks (URZ) go by the wayside. Stocks like SMOD, XTXI, XTEX, PACR, GEN (GENON) and others are all no more all being bought up by others. I am very hesitant to trade UUUU do to the thin trading in the stock. The URZ purchase did not add enough shares to make trading more liquid and shrink bid/ask disparity. Obviously, it is more liquid right now.
As for URG, I have agreed with Deviateur about URZ being the better company and have stayed away. Seems like he has come to like URG more over time, not saying that it was a bad company to start.
I am still concerned about energy sector overall and have been eyeing many oil plays only making a few quick trades here and there. I like BBEP. I owned it during the 08/09 crash and made good money on it with easy 20% gains in just days at a time. Should have bought up a large lot and held because there was huge money to be made with it (not unlike many other options at the time that did not go BK.) For example, I owned TEN and got scared out of it when LEA went BK. My dad had TRW. Both TEN and TRW would have made us a fortune if we stuck it out with them.
Notice BBEP pays about a 10% divvy now and this has been a huge reduction from where it was paying. If they survive, stock will likely rise at least 200% and divvy will increase giving you at least 20-25% annually on your principal investment. Hard not to like it. A similar example is LINE.
How long until energy sector turns, especially uranium and oil? Big money to be had if you time it right and hold out for the top of the recovery.
Would have been an even better shorting opportunity. LOL
With PPS already below $5, ability to raise more capital through equity is going to be even more difficult as most funds will not purchase stocks below $5. Thus the 1:50 could have made sense.
Management made a very big mistake jumping ahead with the RS to try to capitalize the investment it was trying to make. The plan fell apart and the RS further destroyed shareholder value. The RS was not necessary at the time and should have only been a last resort to maintain trading and liquidity status. EOX likely still had close to a year considering initial 180 days, 180 day extension, and potential extra time to vote at next year's shareholders meeting.
Equity has no real value left in this company. Writing had been on the wall for some time.
You are the one that is lost and I am not going to waste time arguing with you.
I will add this though. They netted $6.66 per share, yes, but it was not when the share price was at $5.35. Plus, there were costs associated with the sale of these shares which means that it ultimately cost shareholders money. I am not going to go into the definition and explanation of dilution as to what it really means to shareholders as it relates to this ATM transaction. Later.
I WILL admit that I long-term positive on Afrezza and the benefits it will bring to the diabetic community. Just the other day I met a struggling diabetic and told him to find out about Afrezza. Hope in changes his life for the better.
For what it is worth, I am a realist that presents information in a fair and respectable manner whether positive or negative. Definitely, not a basher (or a pumper for that matter.) I have been very negative short-term and have been ever sense the announcement of the partnership with terms that were quite disappointing. Sold all the rest of my shares at the open that morning. Of course, I remain optimistic and positive long-term. I continue to be short-term negative due to the lack of script growth and MannKind's financial position for the next several months.
You should listen more and learn more and, then, maybe you will understand why you are likely underwater on this stock.
Remember, Sanofi is looking out for its own interests in structuring a plan for success of Afrezza. They own 65% of Afrezza. With what is likely going to be a slow growth pattern for Afrezza that will surely accelerate later down the line is not necessarily in the best interests of MannKind shareholders short-term.
Many here want to bash Sanofi and, of course, MannKind management as well. The path to success for Afrezza is clearly laid out by the obstacles that must be overcome. It is going to take time and it will be financially painful for MannKind in the short-term. Shorts know this and are going to keep taking advantage of it.
The recent pop in share price was all about shorts getting a chance to load another barrel by selling more shares at higher prices. Nothing has fundamentally improved for MannKind and Afrezza right now. PPS will retrace. If anything, lack of dramatic increase in script count after ads start will cause PPS to drop further. Personally, I am expecting $3 area and maybe as low as $2 if a few months pass without discernable growth in Afrezza sales from ads.
Shorts are not covering. This is a huge warning sign that they are still in the driver seat. I really do not know why anyone would be buying or adding here.
Delayed - You are digging a deeper hole.
Sanofi basically "bought" 65% of MannKind's drug Afrezza for about $1 billion dollars. One of the best deals they ever made.
They are not going to let Afrezza fail. They are piecing together a plan that will help result in the best outcome .... for Sanofi. Once this drug hits $2 BILLION in sales and creates at least $1.2BILLION in profits, Sanofi will be getting about $800mm after paying $400mm to MannKind (of the profits.)
You start seeing $5 BILLION in sales over time and the payoff for Sanofi is HUGE!
Sanofi did not do a deal with MannKind to see Afrezza fail. They surely did not have some underhanded agreement with other players to see Afrezza fail either.
A couple of posts from another thread (that was about another topic):
"Afrezza has a short window in which to succeed. No one is talking about the escalating marketing costs at this point, either. Scripts need to start ramping, social media needs to explode."
missjessiecat • 4 minutes 16 seconds ago Flag
"I'm not certain that the marketing costs are escalating, as you say. But, if they are, they won't effect Mnkd's bottom line. Isn't that a SNY expense?"
This was an area of major concern for me considering the lack of revenues from Afrezza prescriptions so far. MannKind is responsible for 35% of all expenses related to Afrezza which includes the large costs associated with marketing. Cost sharing is primarily why MannKind established the line of credit with Sanofi. Until Afrezza reaches profitability, MannKind can tap the line of credit to minimize pressure on its own cash situation.
The problem right now is that MannKind is going to fall further into debt. Not only will they have to renegotiate the convertible bond, they will be increasing debt by way of the Sanofi loan. Plus, depending on how long it takes to reach profitability, MannKind must keep paying its own overhead.
If you fast forward six months, it is plausible that MannKind is in a much worse position financially considering the above. The key factor is script growth. If marketing efforts do not result in impressive increases in script counts, share price is going to drop dramatically from here. Obviously, the short positions are betting on it.
No, you are the numbskull. The average was higher because of transaction costs. Likely, the average was closer to $7 (if not more than $7 per share) and I just put in a RANGE for the approximate price per share at market. Actually, I should have put in a range of $6.75 to 7.50 where they likely sold most of the shares.
Your comment about antidilutive to current price is dodging the reality of what happened. Right after the reverse split, EOX DUMPED shares on the market that aided in the collapse of share price. This immediately increased share count by 45% and it damaged shareholder value.
You better reconsider your investment here. Management OBVIOUSLY does not care about its shareholders. That RS was a disaster and the immediate capital raise via shares at market aided in additional shareholder losses.
How about this example. Let's assume there are only 50mm shares outstanding and Institution A owns them all. See how things work out below:
Group Y borrowed 50mm shares from Institution A and sold them to Institution B. A and B both show ownership of 50mm shares each. Now, Group Z borrowed 50mm shares from Institution B and sold them to Institution C.
Result: Three institutions hold a total of 150mm shares (even though only 50mm actually exist.)
Two groups are short 100mm shares that have been borrowed from two of the three institutions.
150mm-100mm=50mm shares outstanding.
Thus, the actual float or total shares outstanding do not necessarily matter when considering the total number of shares that can be shorted. Plus, because naked shorting exists, there are even more shares potentially shorted.
Washington Mutual had 2.7 billion common shares in the hands of shareholders at the time it was seized yet there were only 1.7 billion shares actually outstanding resulting in 1 BILLION extra shares.
So, you better ask yourself, what do those shorting know? They obviously must be very, very confident that MNKD share price is going to take a huge fall. Heck, some of those shorting are even willing to pay ridiculously high interest rates to borrow shares and sell them to the market.
"Quarter to date, Emerald received approximately $16.4 million in net proceeds from the issuance of 2,460,045 shares via the ATM. Current shares outstanding are now 7,856,325."
It looks like the shares were sold to market between $6.50-7.00 per share after the reverse split. Emerald diluted shareholders by a whopping 45% to raise a paltry $16mm (net) as noted above.
Market cap is a little over $43mm with share price at $5.53.
Emerald is going to continue to dilute shareholders to stay in business. How many shares are they authorized to sell and how many more can be sold ATM?
" Stop wasting your hard earned money on a book that nobody uses anymore"
What about Bass? He just bought a boatload of stock in VRS who makes the paper used to print those books. VRS is headed into the ground as well. Why would he be buying another company that has NO future. Maybe he thought he had another pump and dump on his hands. He is already down 60% on VRS in a couple of months. LOL
This company is embedded in a sector (print/digital advertising) that has been evolving for several years and almost all of these companies are struggling to create an entity that meets its clients needs - and a profitable one at that.
I had felt that DXM was in a position with its huge customer base and sales force to convert clients to a digital strategy that would ultimately replace print. The problem is that the platform does not deliver the results. So, not only are the print customers running for the exits, the digital customers are starting to follow suit. As you stated, the ballgame is over.