That we're all going to be rich???
That would be former holders of WAMUQ, WAMPQ, and WAMKQ that held shares through BK emergence and accepted the plan of reorganization receiving escrow shares in the WMI liquidating trust. If the FDIC is holding a value of net assets that was not obtained by JPM and is the property of WMI (not WMB), then those assets must be returned to the estate at some point. If some or all of those assets are determined to be at the WMB level, those assets would first go back to WMB claimholders (WMB bondholders) before going to the WMI estate.
All we can do is wait and see how it plays out. I am hoping for another Kmart "hide the sausage" event. Only this time, equity could reap a huge reward as opposed to only the creditors in the Kmart debacle.
Did I tell you how much I love my equity escrow shares? LOL
Wish I had something of substance to add. The energy sector is in shambles with this sudden oil glut. Until oil stabilizes and begins to recover, I am afraid that the U sector is going to endure even more pain. CCJ hitting new lows is a major red flag. Look at the URA. It has lost all those gains and is nearing lows again. DNN bordering on new lows. UEC is finally coming back to reality and could quickly revisit penny land again. Notice PPS movement of URZ. It has been trying to hold above $1.10. Starting to believe that when $1.10 breaks, it will quickly drop back under $1.
I was very fortunate to make some good money on URZ's recent pop. It covered most of my losses on Capstone (CPST) which has been killed from being in the energy sector as well. On a positive note, there are some incredible opportunities developing in the energy sector. Selecting a few winners and timing points of entry could lead to some incredible returns in a few years time. Been looking at SN, OAS, and others trying to figure out who will survive. Could easily lead to 200-300% returns or even more. OTOH - you could easily lose your whole investment. Good luck guys and gals!
Marty - Hard to believe I received two thumbs down for my post that is based mostly on fact and interpretation based on the facts.
Anyway, it is only the Run Off Notes that pay 13% interest annually (with one set of notes receiving PIK instead of cash for the interest.) The Run Off Notes have been distributed to Piers holders already. No more to be handed out. It is WMIH that gets the funds to call those notes back by paying out cash. This cash appears to come from performance from WMMRC. WMILT has nothing to do with the Run Off Notes.
As for the remainder owed, it is about $4.30 x 23mm notes. This is money owed to Piers from the WMILT and has nothing to do with WMIH. To pay off this $100mm, money must be released from WMILT. That money comes from reserves being freed up that is no longer needed for claims (such as employee) or other money received from sources like the settlement of the D&O insurance claim. I believe the main remaining source is the state tax refunds that are in dispute. Likely, it is only a matter of time before the WMILT has this $100mm to distribute to pay off Piers completely. Remember, over time your RON will become cash from WMIH calling back those notes. This means that ultimately you will receive over $11 per Pier's share.
As far as interest, the $100mm claim owed to Piers is only accumulating interest at the federal judgment rate and not the 13% that the run off notes are earning until called.
There is NO MONEY for equity claims in the liquidating trust and it is unlikely that there will ever be money for those claims as class 18 will collect any crumbs left with WMILT after Piers is paid in full. That is, unless the FDIC-R is returning assets in the form of cash to the WMILT estate. Some believe that the amount of money could be in the billions (as opposed to zero.) I hope that I am wrong and those that believe are right. Just $2.5b returned to the estate will give me over $1 million dollars from the trust!
Mary was referring to WMIH as "good for us" from the way I interpret it.
Now how WMIH paying off some more bonds could have some mystical meaning that it could be significant for a WMIH shareholder is beyond me. Clearly, a few more dollars have become available through WMMRC operations so that WMIH can continue to pay down its burden of those run off notes. Simple is that. No hidden meaning.
As for the remainder owed to Piers, we wait for more funds to be freed up or come available in the liquidating trust. Completely separate from the RON as you know. The estate still does not have enough money available to pay off the rest of the Piers claims which is necessary to even think about money flowing to equity placeholders in the trust. Remember, there are still claims in class 18 after Piers and before equity that must be dealt with before money flows to equity from WMILT.
Right now, it does not appear any money will reach equity from WMILT. However, it looks quite promising that Piers will receive the remainder of their claim and some money will reach class 18 claimants. Of course, IF the FDIC-R has funds (assets) that must be returned to the estate (WMILT) beyond what they may have for WMB bondholders and other claimants, then money could reach equity. AZ Cowboy and some others are sure of it. I am not holding my breath and I am not expecting even a dime for my equity placeholders, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised. :-))
You are totally ridiculous. EOX is issuing more shares, not buying back shares. The dilution from swapping convertible debt to equity is terrible AND they are not generating any cash in the process.
EOX could be a .75 stock very quickly as around half the debt converted is based on the weighted average share price for next eight days. Have seen this happen before. The players will push the stock down much lower to get that average down. Believe it happened to MEA recently and their stock dropped from around $1 to .30 very quickly. This conversion is terrible for current shareholders.
Seanoise - just watching periodically as I no longer really watch this stock to trade it. Happened to see the news today and found it very interesting that someone "exposed" things a bit early.
It is my belief that things were not going in the right direction which forced BOD to oust McDonald. This move of layoffs could be an indication that there is increasing pressure for DEX to find ways to cut costs to deal with the lack of digital growth to make up for the staggering losses in print each quarter. Like you, I am sure that the current trend in digital is not supportive of a company that can survive without major concessions from its creditors again. I continue to believe that DXM is headed for another bankruptcy and, this time, the creditors are going to take it all and maybe even take the company private.
Debt maturation dates keep getting closer every day. I just do not see the creditors "playing ball" this time.
I agree. You cannot argue with your numbers. Capex for 2015 is more than their margin which does not leave them cash flow positive.
How they can even think about stock repurchase is beyond me. They have no cash. Any extra cash coming from margins created by their hedges must be preserved for latter part of 2015 when the company is going to be in major trouble without those hedges.
This, of course, is based on price of oil stagnating here.
Pipster - recognized your name from the ABAT board. I recently came across OAS. Have been watching several others such as EOX, DNR, EPE, AREX, WLL, DO, and more.
What are your thoughts on OAS and some of the others I mentioned. Upside is huge on some of these plays. That is, if they can avoid bankruptcy and/or major dilution or concessions with creditors in the meantime?
BTW - Rarely post on the ABAT board. Mainly a uranium follower and trader on only a handful of stocks.
Speed - you asked a very good question. I have not been around for several weeks here, but just happened to look at the recent threads and saw your post in this thread. It looks like they feel like the market is 3.1mm. Sanofi will not capture 100% of the target audience. Likely, there is a wide range of error here in determining what is realistic. I will offer that Sanofi would be lucky to grab 30% of the target market in medium term. Longer term, that number could go much higher IF Afrezza dramatically outperforms the alternatives.
To be fair, the original poster should only use maybe about 20% penetration of a target audience of 3.1mm and that would be great as this means that Afrezza has captured 20% of the total market in this group.
As usual, posters here throw out numbers that are completely unrealistic.
It bounced nicely Evalyn, immediately getting back above $1.20 support/resistance. Testing that $1.20 now. If you were trading for a one day move, you could have made money on a $1.15/1.16 purchase. However, I sense your $1.15 will be back very soon with URZ likely testing those lower price points.
It did, of course. Now the question is where URZ finds support. Personally, I hope it goes quite a bit lower because I will load back up. I am still hesitant with URG because of the debt load and concerns about selling into spot trying to create cash flow which uses up its finite amount of uranium where it currently mines.
URG got a bump from that article. Will see if there is any follow-through.
If Ps ended up getting paid off at 100% of face (not limited to that, by the way), I will bow down before Bopfan with a multi-million dollar smile!
There is that test of $3.50 area setting new low today at $3.47. All bets are off now. Buying here is a gamble that oil prices rebound near term. Based on trading range of PQ, this does look like a nice entry point. However, if you believe that oil will rebound and can find oil place that can avoid serious dilution or bankruptcy, the comparative returns could be much better elsewhere.
Take a look at DNR and continue to watch AREX. GL
$1.20 is support threshold that would cause URZ to drop much lower if it breaks. So, if you believe it will hold, you should be buying here. If you believe it breaks, look for stock to retrace back to $1.10/1.11 and maybe $1.05. URZ is not a buy at $1.18 or so. It becomes a sell under $1.20.
I agree Vine. What do you think of DO? Pays a divvy and has a large market cap. I like AREX for a smaller play. Need to look into their hedging further.
EOX, SFY, EXXI, DNR, and others are getting destroyed today.
Yes, wow! I thought about starting a position before OPEC announced, but had a feeling that OPEC was not going to cut to put pressure on sector.
Question is how long with these depressed oil prices last and how long can companies like EOX survive before entering some for of bankruptcy?