Thanks. I immediately placed a comment to counter the author's claim that, "No imminent need of a stock offering is visible." This comes as a response to recent shelf offering. Funny stuff. We shall see who is right.
I have seen you post this info quite a while back. Thanks.
This was obviously with the premise that USEC was able to run ACP and benefit from the operations. The government took back ACP which leaves me questioning how USEC benefits moving forward assuming they still end up running ACP for the government. Not sure how the arrangement differs considering that USEC will not have to provide the funding to build out ACP. There still must be some benefit other than payment as a sub to operate the plant. I just do not know what ownership stake USEC can claim to ACP moving forward. Any insight anyone?
How about telling me what you're really thinking. :-))
Actually, I believe URZ is too small a player for anyone (big) to really be interested. Maybe another small player like URG could benefit from synergies as well as to help grow the company into a larger player. The problem here is that you would have two management teams with BODs that would not want to walk away making it difficult to make happen. I do not believe URZ management has any interest in selling out as this is their livelihood and they are just now moving into production versus exploration and development.
I am buying here and will continue to add on any weakness. With spot moving up and larger mining operations cutting production (part of which due to Cameco strike), I suspect URZ will at least close the gap down and maybe even get to $1.50 area in a reasonable amount of time. Now that dilution is off the table, we are all waiting to see performance that could help create a spike as well. Plus, there is that ongoing hope (yes, hope) that one day soon Japan will finally start one of its nuclear plants.
I believe this shelf has little to do with market conditions, if at all. I ran the numbers and will continue to take the stance that UR-Energy is short on cash. The cost attributed to digging another deep disposal well and the money that must be allocated to the bonds and the inability to generate positive cash flow will cause UR-Energy to raise more capital. I disagree with Jetty that URG has enough capital until at least through first quarter of next year.
I have discussed the risk of dilution recently and am confident that it will happen BEFORE the next earnings release which is now about two months away. If not, dilution will occur before the end of the year. I just believe that URG management will want to get this done before the next report. This shelf is a strong indication that I am right.
I predicted the recent URZ dilution. I did not know that they were going to have to issue shares at such a discount AND throw in warrants. The URZ offering was pretty painful for shareholders. The stock had been trading in the $1.40-1.50s and ended up with dilution at about $1.20 per share (based on .05 value per each 1/2 warrant.) I also stated that the share price would drop well below the $1.25 offer price and it dropped about 15% lower.
URG is already trading at the low end of its range. Hopefully, the stock will pop soon on the continued pressure on uranium supply via constrained mining operations, uptick in spot prices, and any other positive developments. Based on current PPS, the dilution could come in at around 15% lower if similar to URZ pricing. We could be talking about new shares issued at .95 or lower. I will guess that URG will try to raise around $15mm which could be over 17mm shares. So, those holding here really need a bump soon to reduce or exit positions before the announcement of the capital raise.
Sponge. I think the main reason any bondholders will sell now is that they do not want to deal with the uncertainty of BK emergence. New bonds and new common shares will be issued. How will they be valued? How will they trade? What will be the liquidity related to both the new bonds and common shares? Hopefully, a few more are thinking about this and will just want to get out. I may just have to buy a few more myself. :-))
Obviously, involvement with the future of ACP is vital for USEC's survival.
Couple of things I believe about ACP. The government replaced USEC as manager with government owned ORNL. ORNL subs USEC to basically operate the plant, but ORNL is responsible for construction and further engineering of the project. This means that further funding for build out of ACP DOES NOT GO TO USEC. No $2b loan guarantee for USEC and no need for USEC to raise billions of additional dollars to build out ACP. The result is that DOE no longer needs to worry about funds going to a private entity. The funds needed to build out ACP will need to be appropriated to ORNL, a government entity.
ORNL will take this money finding a subcontractor to continue to build out ACP including the manufacturing of additional centrifuge machines. Is this B&W? They will also have to find a subcontractor to run the plant including cascade operations. Right now, this is USEC.
Here is the pieces that I have been unable to fit together. What does USEC own as far as the ACP to this point? Obviously, USEC has spent quite a bit of money in developing the technology, building centrifuge units, and years of research and testing. I am unclear as to how the government can just take all of this away from USEC without compensation. In addition, as ACP is brought to actual production, is there revenue sharing between ORNL and USEC based on USEC's "ownership" to this point?
This means that it is highly unlikely that USEC would be terminated from the project. It also is highly unlikely that the government would walk away from this project that has been deemed successful to this point and could be important to national security. This leaves USEC as a subcontractor moving forward without worrying about having to raise billions of dollars or the huge interest expense that goes along with it.
For shareholders, USEC needs more than sub revenues. They need money from ACP production. I do not have an answer.
I have not seen anyone here spend any time evaluating USECs financial statements to come up with a fair valuation. Part of the trouble is related to the uncertainty of how USEC moves forward as a business entity and how they will be involved with ACP.
Removing over half the debt on the books, eliminating preferred shares, and pushing out debt maturities will help. On the other hand, new debt carries an 8% interest rate, the Uranium sector is in terrible shape, and USEC must continue to dance with the DOE and the government.
I have already made a prediction and here it is again. With 9mm shares outstanding, I will predict share price of $18-22 per share corresponding to a market cap of $162-198mm (a little under $200mm.) At $180mm market cap, old shareholders would own $9mm, or 5%. This means that current share price would only be worth about $1.80 per share - and here it is trading at a whopping $5 per share.
As a bondholder getting shares of new common equity, of course I would prefer to see a share price of over $55 and a $500mm market cap that would be equivalent to current shares trading at $5. I will make a small fortune (around 200% gain for bonds I just bought) if I could sell those new shares at $55. Thus, I find it hard to believe that I am going to benefit to that degree.
Last word of caution. It is the common equity shareholders that suffer in bankruptcies. Usually, preferred shareholders suffer to a degree and creditors (namely note holders) suffer some as well. The way this prepackaged bankruptcy is shaping up, it is possible that creditors actually MAKE money from this bankruptcy and the common shareholders come out unscathed. Just not realistic to me. This is why I continue to warn that when USEC emerges, the current common holders will wake up with shares that hold much less value and a 50-60% IMMEDIATE loss is not out of the question and is what I am expecting.
Still cannot quite understand the trading at the end of the day yesterday and they very heavy volume after hours. No follow through this morning and no news. Very strange trading.
I call that lucky trading Lewis. Bottom has to drop out on USU common any day now. Confirmation hearing and likely approval is coming next Friday. Just four trading days left for the stock to fall closer in line to the trading of the bonds.
Sponge - Even though I did not admit it, I thought the bonds were a great buy as soon as the prepackaged deal was announced. Prior to that, USEC entering bankruptcy could have meant many things.
I waited as long as I could before buying up some bonds. I decided that I would see how the Judge would react to the plan as it progressed in court and wait to see would object to the plan as well as see what portion of the note holders would vote for the plan.
Obviously, to this point, everything went as I had hoped. The bonus has been the valuation of common shares to this point indicating that BK emergence MAY lead to a better market cap than I anticipated which could make the value of bonds converted to new common shares more valuable. This is why your numbers do not seem to add up. How could the bonds come out with a recovery above original face out of bankruptcy? Just doesn't make sense, does it. Well, we know that just about every note holder that voted said that they accept the plan. That is quite a positive result in itself and indicative that just about all note holders believe that they will come out OK as a result of implementation of the bankruptcy plan.
I believe you made a smart move with the information at hand. I strongly believe the confirmation hearing will go smoothly and USEC will emerge from BK on September 8th. At this point, the main risk appears to how the common shares are valued and whether they will be listed on a major exchange or at least one that provides liquidity.
Late today may be the beginning of a vast drop in value to the old common shares that I have been expecting. Let's hope they hold up to a degree to imply some kind of real value for the new commons coming out of bankruptcy. A 50% return on your investment in the bonds should be very feasible with a chance for 100% or more if things go well. Good luck to you.
You have any evidence of any news that was presented just before the close today that confirms your suspicion? I have found nothing.
Of course, I do not believe that the stock is worth more than $6 and believe the stock is worth maybe around $2 which equates to an emerging market cap of about $200mm. This takedown at and after the close may be the beginning of the drop to more reasonable levels as the confirmation hearing is only a week away.
USU equity is overvalued at $5 not to mention the $6 that it moves towards on these spikes. USU would have to emerge with a $500-600mm market cap valuation for shareholders to realize a break-even result out of bankruptcy. I do not see how USEC will have a market cap even close to those numbers. We shall see who is right in a little over a week. That is, even if we have a market for USU shares after emergence.
It was right there in the disclosure statement and was confirmed with Investor Relations. As of last discussion with IR, there is not a resolution to the issue of USEC not having a listing for its stock upon BK emergence. So, I WISH I was being silly, but that is where things stand.
I have been hesitant to add more bonds because of the concern of liquidity of the shares upon emergence. However, I do believe that it is in the best interest of USEC to have the shares listed immediately even if it is on some kind of OTC market.
Please read about it again in the disclosure statement and see if you can find anything different. Like I said, this was confirmed with IR. This was one of the things I wanted to discuss off-board with you.
That is a pretty decent bounce off lows. Hopefully, it has legs and is based on the lack of production creating less additional supply.
Noticed that UEC has suddenly started tumbling down again. Suspect that dilution is imminent? I believe additional capital funding via debt has already run its course. Plus, UEC is already paying very high interest rates on their debt. I am still concerned about URG needing more capital and have noticed that URG PPS has not responded at all to the pop in spot. Of course, URZ has not either and is still sitting slightly below the dilution price factoring in the warrant value.
Thus, I believe that the market has been hesitant to invest here and take these stocks higher. The downgrade of CCJ did not help.
We are still in need of some kind of catalyst. Maybe after the actual strike begins at Cameco, we will see a slow move upward in these mining stocks. Then, some other stronger catalyst will be needed.
Lewis. Looks like you will get your chance tomorrow. Maybe your order not executing was a good thing. USU down quite a bit on heavy volume after hours. Any news?
I have been too afraid to try taking that risk myself. The day I try it, they will take the stock down to $3 and it won't recover. :-((
Strange trading at end of day. Showing down quite a bit more after hours.
Is that extended yaaaaaaaa more of a drowning screech as you get flushed down the toilet.
Don't get me wrong, though. I would love PPS rise above $10 going into conversion and a clean transition of shares with similar valuation after conversion putting market cap at $1b. That would be lovely for my converted shares from my bonds. Would mean well over a 300% return on my bonds that I recently bought. Go USU!!!
Bbarra - I tend to believe institutions, especially new investors, will not take positions here until Afrezza sales actually start taking shape to a point where they can start forecasting MannKind's profitability and resulting share price. They are going to be late to the game because they will want to limit risk.
No. That is motivation to push the stock lower. Think about it as a long. Imagine it cost you an extra 12% just to buy shares and hold them. The shorts must be incredibly confident to pay interest just for the right to short those shares. Think about it.
I can only believe that you are expecting a pop on short-covering before conversion and looking to make some money in a day or two. Upon conversion, you would need the market cap to be 20x current market cap just to break even. Plus, there is not necessarily going to be a market for the stock upon conversion although I expect USEC management to get the stock listed quickly at least on the OTC exchange.
The real question is whether shorts need to cover because of conversion issues. Otherwise, I do not see why any short would be worried here.