.... and appears to provide a very fair and realistic view. People just do not want to here the truth sometimes.
Have not posted here in quite some time, but you hit the nail on the head. Before I left here, I argued that the initial numbers were going to be very weak. It likely will take a few quarters before things start to turn. I totally blame the lack of transparency from management for any major hit to share price as it relates to this.
They could easily explain that many doctors will be slow to adopt this new method and type of insulin until they have started testing in their own patients to better understand it as well as to help prescribe it in the future.
Shareholders here should understand this for themselves. To think that both doctors and patients will adopt this quickly is not being realistic.
Unbelievable. I just do not see how FTR can support this type of purchase over time. Looks like a clear short over time. Dilution and quite a bit more debt. Crazy.
I am kicking myself for not buying back into MNKD under $5 knowing that it would rally going into the announcement of the availability of Afrezza. If not for the huge number of shares outstanding, MNKD could really move up.
The question right now is how long before Afrezza takes hold in the marketplace. Weak initial sales will really hurt share price. However, when the realization sets in that Afrezza is superior and is gaining traction, MNKD is going to move up substantially. I am thinking Q3 earnings release late this year could be the tell.
Good luck to those holding or accumulating. You have some Watch?
Watch, I have done very well with URZ and think that buying it going into the acquisition by UUUU could result in a nice pop as UUUU moves back up in PPS. Just in the last few days, URZ popped on the move by UUUU. Do a market cap analysis of them individually and then combined. When U recovers, buying URZ now should lead to at least a 50% gain. Much more when U moves way up, but that could be a few years out or longer....
With $40mm cash, CPST could burn through 4mm a quarter taking 2.5 years to run out. Of course, they will surely raise more capital before that happens which would likely mean at least 4 or more years of time left. If they actually get to break even and stop the cash burn or turn cash flow positive, then bankruptcy becomes even less likely down the road.
Bankruptcy is not even a concern at this point in the game. What is a concern is that Cappy must prove that the company merits a higher valuation. That is going to take much higher quarterly sales. Can they do it? They have improved margins, but need to generate more completed sales to take advantage of the better margins.
Current PPS is a great entry point considering the risk/reward presented.
My last line agrees with you. KKR most definitely did not get involved for a $2 story. That is why I am starting to think that they are NOT after the NOLs. They are after WMIH for another reason. The pieces will start to come together with my responses to Brand below. Read closely and you can envision what KKR may really be after with WMIH.
Brand. No, it is not WMMRC. You are overvaluing the NOLs and they cannot provide the kind of return that KKR wants. I am sure of that.
So, there is something else going on here. The answer may lie within what was seized by the FDIC-R that JPM did not get and did not pay for either. Remember, JPM only paid $1.9b for "the whole bank", yet they did not take on any of WMB bondholder debt to the tune of $13b. If WMI was worth only $10b WITH all the WMI and WMB debt, that would mean that WMI was worth $30b without the corporate and bank level debt. JPM paid $1.9b for $30b worth of company. I think NOT.
Figuring that JPM did not get all that value, this means that FDIC-R is likely holding BILLIONS worth of non-cash and non-liquidated assets that will have to come back to the estate for WMI-LT. Who better than WMIH to take control of these assets for the benefit of WMI-LT. Starting to get the picture?
Agreed. I have found many oil plays that have tempted me and have only played a couple of them very short term. Made money on one and lost on the other. I really like OAS, SN and LINE. Watching DO, WLL, AREX, EOX, and several others. Just trying to time entry points.
Uranium sector has been beaten to a pulp. Hard not to like CCJ for a return over the long-term. However, much better returns may be had with the micro caps like URZ that is being merged with UUUU. If you look at individual market caps of each, combine them, and look forward, you could have a company that is at least a double with a sector recovery. URG could provide an even greater return with more risk of course. Not interested in DNN or UEC. Another player is FCUUF that could be worth a lot more with much higher U prices.
MannKind just announced Afrezza availability to public. Already moved up leading into news. What we need now is an entry point after weak initial results take the stock back down (if you believe in the long-term story.)
WMIH may be a huge play. Right now, on the surface, it is quite overvalued. However, why is KKR and Citi putting $600mm into a company of nothing? WMIH is the emerging company from the former holding company Washington Mutual Inc. that had its banking entity seized by the government to get TARP passed. I am close to an expert on this subject being involved from prior to the seizure and through BK emergence. Here is the play. Supposedly, FDIC-R may be holding BILLIONS in assets that must be returned to the WMI estate. That estate is technically now the WMI-LT (liquidating trust) of which I hold an abundance of escrow placeholders. These BILLIONS in assets may be in the form of mortgages held in portfolio by WMI that the FDIC-R seized and were outside BK jurisdiction. WMIH may get these assets through an agreement with the WMI-LT to liquidate for the benefit of the trust and WMIH will gain the additional value received from these assets.
Your final sentence is incorrect. I am saying that KKR does not need WMIH to acquire other companies as well as acquiring one with a boatload of NOLs to shelter income.
So, if they are NOT after WMIH's NOLs, what the heck are they after with WMIH? I think someone mentioned that Citi already has its own NOLs. So, why would Citi be investing here if they could just acquire some profitable companies to use their own NOLs?
I was recently enlightened by some posts on Boardpost and was able to see what may really be going on here and it changed my opinion about equity escrow shares and the potential for WMIH.
Hint: WMIH and WMI-LT may be intertwined much more than some have thought. Think about the RONs to get a better understanding. In other words, WMIH performance (via WMMRC) was able to pay WMI-LT holders by the distribution and payoff of the RONs. Now, if you understood where I was going here, it would be obvious what this could mean in the future.
Are you still able to log into Boardpost? If you could, you would likely understand the last line of my comment.
I have come to the conclusion that KKR and Citi are not after WMIH's NOLs specifically. So, what are they after? WMIH is just a company with no real operations other than a runoff company, no real management, and no real assets other than a small amount of cash. Exactly why would KKR and Citi inject so much money here? Let me add this for you and others to ponder. KKR could just start its own shell company owning the whole thing, make acquisitions of profitable entities, and then grab a company with a nice pile of NOLs for tax benefits. No need for WMIH at all. Think about it. There IS more to the story.
"We cannot expect that this will be the final phase of funding for the company. Given the equity related funding that has taken place thus far, we can expect equally impressive amounts of debt to be issued in order to fund an acquisition that will almost assuredly exceed $2 billion..."
OK - How does that all shake out for WMIH valuation. Let's say the acquisition is a $2B company generated $200mm in annual profits. That allows WMIH to use maybe $50mm in NOLs each year (25% effective tax rate). With 600mm shares outstanding, profits of 200mm would be about 33 cents per share. That would equate to about $3.30 per share at a PE of 10. However, WMIH would be sitting on $1.4B in debt to do that acquisition with almost no cash on hand. That is an unworkable scenario. Also, I will argue that this type of transaction would not be allowed to protect the NOLs either.
More likely, WMIH would raise $500mm in debt at best to purchase a $1B company generating maybe $100mm in profits. This would leave about $100mm in cash, $500mm in debt, and a company worth maybe $1.2B including originally WMIH value for a net worth of $700mm. A PE of 12 would result in a $1.2B market cap and a share price of $2 per share (with 600mm shares outstanding.) Again, though, this may create issues with federal guidelines to protect those NOLs since WMIH is not "worth" $1.2B presently to allow for a purchase of equal size.
WMIH appears to be fully valued currently in my opinion and may have a frothy valuation if the acquisition is not at least as impressive as my scenario just above. Hard to feel comfortable buying WMIH at $2.15 knowing that once the conversions are done, that this would be over a $1.2B market cap. Is WMIH really going to be worth more than this. At $3 PPS, you have a market cap nearing $2B!
Now, could it be that there is more than meets the eye here? Stay tuned.
You are naïve. Look all the way back to IAR and RHD days. Those companies were generating boat loads of cash flow. The lenders wanted there money and both IAR and RHD were forced into BK because the lenders did not play ball. The lenders took a bath having some debt forgiven and getting all the equity of the emerging companies. Equity that later has become almost worthless in comparison to how it was valued upon emergence. Yes, these lenders likely hedged along the way minimizing the losses from this terrible investment.
Even with the merger deal between DEXO and SPMD, the lenders played hardball. Without the merger, both DEXO and SPMD likely would have not been able prepacks and equity would have been wiped again. The merger helped save equity and helped get lenders to extend terms.
Now, the clock is ticking. Nothing has changed as far as the lenders are concerned. From the days of IAR/RHD and SPMD/DEXO and now DXM, there has been an ongoing reduction in revenues and cash flow over time without a clear path to pay off debt without additional concessions. Even now, DXM has been able to buy debt down at a discount to face to try to reduce its debt burden. That is not the way a healthy company operates.
The lenders are not going to play ball this time. Why not? Just look at the history of this company and it is clear that the lenders will force DXM into another BK when the loans come due. Maybe they negotiate another prepack to minimize BK costs, but they will take a major stake in the equity again. More likely, I believe they will take the whole company via BK possibly taking the company private this time.
Clock is ticking for equity. I have been warning about this since the last prepack.
Just trying to make a point. Either you get it and are just making some stupid crack or you don't get it and, if that is the case, then that is just too bad.
Sadly, Deviateur could not have just responded with a "I think you meant URRE" or "I think you may be mistaken" and wait for a response. Instead, he just continues to believe that people are here to deceive or mislead for their own benefit and had to warn the masses.
I think it is funny stuff. He has decided not to respond to me which, in my opinion, shows his own true colors. I know he cannot go back and show any pattern of deception on my part. He cannot go back and show how I have told people to buy or sell with any regularity or pattern. He CAN show where I may state my case as to whether it may be a good time to buy or sell and what I may have done. Seems like that should be a good thing as I know many value others' opinions to help make their own decisions. Plus, I have been right with my suggestions most of the time. That sure does not wreak of deceptive tactics.
Personally, I think Deviateur is very frustrated with his investment decision with Uranerz and with this sector in general. Maybe, he is trying to place blame with posters on these message boards. How Jetty or I have affected the stock prices in our favor or to gain an advantage by suggesting that someone buys or sells is ridiculous. I am not saying that there are not cases of such behavior, but those situations come from much larger concerted efforts with emails or blogs or shady investment groups steering the ship. Definitely not coming from a poster or two mentioning something on a message board.
Get a life Deviateur. Instead of starting this thread, you should have responded to Jetty's statement to clear things up. Jeez!
Don't even get me started on the healthcare situation with government taking more control.
Think about this. I USED to get better rates because I, yes I, decided to be healthy and not smoke and not increase my odds of diabetes and other health issues that may be environmentally controlled. Now, I can pay &$%* rates and pay for the all those that 1. have chosen not to be healthy and 2. those that have not been able to afford the same level of health care.
Maybe the gov't can $%^* me over with my auto insurance next. How about I pay for those that decide to drive while drinking and those that continue to get in accidents?
Crazy, right? My health insurance has gone up about 60% in a little over one year. I heard that in one more year it will be going up another 60% and will amount to about a 150% increase starting with year three. This is without switching to the national health plan. If I switch and accept the absolute lowest policy, I will still be paying about 120% more than my rate going into the start of this plan. Can you guess what I think about our current regime???
I received an email from one of these firms. I laughed when I read it. They had improperly spelled words, incomplete sentences, and more. I obviously did not give them the courtesy of a response. If I did, it would not have been a pleasant one.
These attorneys are all full of it and are blood suckers. If anyone here is disappointed with the deal, you have choices. You can vote against the deal. You can sell and move on. You can try to get more information about the deal to understand the reasoning behind why it should be beneficial to shareholders.
Clock is ticking. Pressure will continue to mount as maturity date on debt nears. Those holding debt have not been nice in the past, so why would it change now? Unless something dramatically changes such as much better digital revenue growth, I expect the stock price to continue to fall over time as debt maturity nears. That is not to say that there will be some positive catalysts to bump up the stock here and there, but the trend is not equity's friend.
Hard to time oil plays, but I do like LINE. DNR appears a little more risky. Cannot remember WTI, but did like it when I had taken a quick look a while back. I like OAS, SN, DO, and maybe WLL but its not well hedged. Not buying any right now though.
I guess cheap can become cheaper. I sensed this was coming with the way the stocks were trading yesterday. This is a free fall with no bottom in sight. URZ looks like a good value here....except that EF (UUUU) is #$%$ and could drop much lower taking URZ down with it.
UEC finally coming back down to earth. Still very surprised that UEC is not well under $1 by now. URA, DNN, CCJ, UUUU all hitting fresh lows. Did you look the coal sector? Wow! WLT has only $80mm market cap. WLT, ACI, and ANR are all hovering around $1 now. BTU hitting fresh lows around $6 now. Unbelievable!