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Dex Media, Inc. Message Board

kingedxxxxx 498 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 23, 2014 8:03 AM Member since: Aug 20, 2009
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  • kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 23, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    MEA will not be delisted to the pinks. However, MEA will institute a reverse split. Depends on how much time they have which is likely as long as a year with extension granted by NYSE. I believe USU (now LEU) actually took more than a year because of the timing of its annual meeting for shareholders to vote on the reverse split. So, USU actually was under a dollar for more than a year before it instituted the RS. This means that MEA could trade well below $1 for quite some time and I suspect that the RS will not be instituted until middle of next year.

    The likelihood of MEA needing to do a reverse split to stay on the exchange is very high as I do not see share price recovering in the foreseeable future. Your target of .50 is very possible. The bad news is that almost all companies lose additional value after the reverse split is instituted which means that the share price will surely end up well below .50 within a year from now unless something really fundamentally improves for this company.

  • There are some fantastic opportunities developing with the dramatic beatings that certain commodity related stocks have undertaken in the past several weeks. What we need to find is the lowest risk (low debt and enough cash on hand to whether the storm) and the best upside potential.

    For example, I rule out SD just based on the fact that the upside to highs may only be about 60% or so. Rule out PQ for same reason, although downside risk is quite limited as well as risk of BK or serious dilution. Just do not like the limited upside compared to AREX named below.
    May have to rule out GDP because they have huge debt with little cash and they are losing money.

    Take a look at AREX, EOX, and SFY to name a few. You guys like any of these? Do some research and let me know. Also, will entertain others. EXXI could fly, but maybe too much risk?

    I am sure we could find at least two that will give us a quick 50% upside and maybe 100% or more with oil prices moving back up.

  • kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 21, 2014 8:00 PM Flag

    If real soon means the next four months, I say yes. Warren Buffet, no.

    Let's all hope for a CEO that will get us there. I cannot wait for the announcement. I anticipate it is going to be a very good one.

  • Reply to

    Explosive Number of Shares Shorted

    by lewis_whokeyser Oct 21, 2014 3:56 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 21, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    That is definitely more in line with what I am expecting. Even if there was 100% short interest on USU common, that would account for only 5% of the new company shares not considering new shorting after BK emergence. So, 4.63% sounds about right. Not going to be much of a short squeeze on news as much as it will be speculators driving the PPS up.

    Announcement of private funding for ACP will move this stock up at least 100% and will continue to push the stock up as anticipation of approval of DOE loan guarantee looms.

    The ability to buy shares under $10 is a fantastic opportunity if you believe that LEU is going to get funding for ACP. I believe. Do you?

  • Reply to

    Weak stock price

    by choco_berg Oct 21, 2014 6:51 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 21, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Actually, look at URRE. If not for the recent rebound from its low, it was down much more than URG on a percentage basis. URZ is also down a bit more on a percentage basis if you go back to before the dilution was announced. It was trading in the $1.40s and is now in the $0.90s. DNN likely is down about the same percentage as URG. So, IMO, URG is NOT the weakest performer. The whole sector has been beaten down.

    Another one. FCUUF, Fission Energy, is down from $1.15 area to the .70s. Worse than URG. :-))

  • Reply to

    read this !!

    by hapebuda Oct 21, 2014 5:43 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 21, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    Cappy has a year to get back above $1. Stop wasting space with your ridiculous response.

    There will be no reverse split.

  • kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 21, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    You need to get your facts straight. Or, at least use the information provided in the past to make some kind of fair observation and prediction.

    LEU must have private funding in place before it can reapply for the $2b loan guarantee. Even if there is a bill containing the funding necessary, LEU will not be able to access that funding until it meets certain requirements.

    The good news. Some of the requirements have been met and they are big ones. First, LEU had to prove that the ACP technology worked in a commercial environment meeting DOE standards. The RD&D program was successfully completed by LEU. Second, LEU had to clean up its financials by improving the balance sheet. LEU successfully emerged from bankruptcy dramatically reducing its long-term debt and extending maturity date by five years as well as eliminating preferred shareholders. Third, LEU had to wind down Paducah. Although not technically a requirement, it was another burden that is now removed from the financial requirements of the company.

    So, LEU is left with one major goal right now. That is to get around $2b in private funding in place to reapply for the DOE loan and, hopefully, be put on the fast track by DOE for approval. Of course, a new DOE friendly or at least private funding friendly (connections with those bringing in the big bucks) is going to be important as well.

    When LEU announces that it has the funding in place to build out ACP, this stock is going to rocket upward. Here are the steps:

    1. New CEO
    2. Private funding
    3. Resubmission of DOE loan application
    4. Control of ACP turned back over to LEU
    5. LEU receives approval of loan guarantee
    6. SpongeBob will be rich (had to add that one) :-))

  • Reply to

    GS Rebuttal

    by lakers_w Oct 20, 2014 2:49 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 20, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    Good point if true. What I mean by that is it will be interesting to see what is considered part of operating costs related to Afrezza beyond the manufacturing costs. I would love to see MannKind pay off or at least pay down debt with upcoming milestone payments.

    I guess we will have to wait for upcoming financials to see how the MannKind operating expenses are broken down to determine what will be reimbursed from Afrezza revenues.

    I continue to stay on the sideline for now. The PPS did get very tasty under $4.50, but I decided to hold off starting a new position figuring that I have time and can do better with other opportunities in the meantime. Did not see that 20%+ gain happening so quickly. Of course, GS is trying to ruin the party now too.

  • Reply to

    All the new diabetes commercials

    by purge_dc Oct 20, 2014 8:40 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 20, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    I have noticed the same thing and agree that the pressure is on here. I have seen two different products for diabetes on TV in last few weeks and I do not remember seeing any before that.

    Although I am short-term negative regarding stock, I do believe that Afrezza could dominate in its segment of the diabetic market. Just going to take a bit longer than many here want to wait. On the positive side, I expect there will be opportunities to add at lower prices or restart a position. As long as Afrezza performs as it has done in the trials, it will ultimately destroy the competition.

  • Reply to

    GS Rebuttal

    by lakers_w Oct 20, 2014 2:49 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 20, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Well, it is not $1 billion. Figuring that the $150mm received will be spent on operating costs over next 12 months, that leaves about $775mm in other milestone payments. Let' say that MannKind uses $150mm to pay off all LT debt and only another $25mm for other operating costs. This means that MannKind will pocket $600mm. Sounds pretty sweet. However, this is only about $1.50 per share based on 400mm shares outstanding.

    Thus, you must factor in that Afrezza must produce enough revenues to at least provide enough profit to MannKind to pay for its operating expenses (separate from manufacturing Afrezza.) The good news is that if there is no more debt, that reduces interest expense and lowers quarterly operating expenses.

    I guess what I am saying is that the $925b helps, but is not much when you look at the number of shares outstanding that factored into all the capital raises necessary to get MannKind where it is today. The total shares outstanding will weigh on this stocks valuation for some time UNTIL Afrezza produces enough revenues and, in turn, profit to instill real value to share price. I expect that this will take at least 2 more years from today and will take form around 2017.

  • kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 20, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    GS is the perfect example of "legalized" crime in this country. GS was instrumental in the takedown of Washington Mutual so that the government could seize it to get TARP passed as well as use WMI's assets to save JPM. By the time the seizure occurred, there were 1 BILLION naked common shares floating around. That is 1 BILLION folks! GS made a fortune shorting Washington Mutual, yet they had an agreement and acted as the market maker for the company. What they did was criminal.

    The problem with MNKD is that there are evil forces controlling this stock. It's all good when they are pushing share price up. However, you have to be ready for the takedown as they push more shares on retail and the less knowledgeable. Personally, I was surprised they took it all the way back to the low $4s so soon and on little or no negative news. Expect the stock to rally at times so that they can take it back down again and again like you said. Rinse and repeat. There will be major pain after the next few earnings releases until MNKD can prove its viability through large Afrezza sales.

    Good luck holding. This stock is much better to buy and sell during the spikes and valleys. We see how holding has worked out for most here. It doesn't.

  • Reply to

    Sebasm...

    by kingedxxxxx Oct 17, 2014 10:17 AM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 18, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    I am not sure about your understanding of BK law. In the real world, things are quite different than what you perceive. I have first hand experience with several bankruptcies and how the process evolved including companies like Otelco, Idearc, Dexo/Spmd, Usec, Washington Mutual, and more. Usec recently emerged from BK and the reason it entered BK was primarily from the fact that its convertible debt was coming due. They had cash, positive cash flow, ongoing (yet questionable) operations and ended up filing for a prepackaged BK because that is what had to be done to play ball with those note holders. Equity, in my opinion, was lucky to get 5% of the new stock.

    All you have to do is look at the history of IAR, RHD, DEXO, and SPMD to realize that the creditors are not magically going to renew debt and on even more relaxed terms. They have played hardball in the past and the future will not be different. The clock is ticking. Unless DXM can show a path for creditors to recover (at face) as debt maturity draws near, DXM will be "forced" to negotiate another deal that will likely result in one more bankruptcy. I question whether equity will survive this last one. The only real hope is stabilization in cash flow at levels that show a path to pay down and pay off debt. That will take a dramatic increase in digital revenues because I am sure that print is dead.

  • Reply to

    ggorden displacement holder

    by thornflesh Oct 17, 2014 10:32 AM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 17, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    He is over on the CLF board today. Noticed his caps key is still broken on his keyboard. LOL

    On a side note, looks like CLF is in very bad shape. Many thought that Cliff was a great company that could weather the storm, but things are not looking good at all. Actually thought PPS would be down much more. I guess some take this news as a positive step. To me, it is a huge warning sign that they are in big trouble. Running out of cash fast with nowhere to go. They are going to have to dump assets at huge discount just to keep things going. Expecting it will be $5-6 very soon and lower over time unless pricing for iron ore turns soon.

  • kingedxxxxx by kingedxxxxx Oct 17, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    "As to the covenants, they apply to the financial condition today. Assume they refinance their debt with a 10 year horizon at half their current interest rate."
    "As to the debtors:
    1) DXM is not in violation of any covenant that I know off, so it is impossible for creditors to force it into bankruptcy
    2) Even if it happened, creditors almost never chose to cause firms to drop into bankruptcy. The continuing value of the firm usually drops to zero and the banks have very little collateral (particularly as in the case of DXM)."

    You cannot be serious. The Company generally elects to file for BK to PROTECT itself from creditors because the writing is on the wall. Then, the debtor tries to work things out with the creditors to create a situation that maximizes returns which generally leaves out equity or gives them crumbs. Notice USU and EGLE that recently emerged with common equity getting 5% and 0.5% respectfully. In the USU BK, no covenants were triggered and the creditors did not force the company into BK. Creditors usually refinance on even more difficult terms as well as end up with the lion's share of new equity.

    As for your first statement, I almost fell out of my chair. You think creditors are going to ask for less interest and increase maturity dates that could last 10 years. You are a fool. You obviously do not know these creditors. They have only played ball in the previous three BK's (IAR/RHD/DEXO-SPMD) to help their own recovery. It took a merger in this last BK with creditors getting better terms just to pull off a path forward. Next BK is not going to go as well for shareholders.

    Every shareholder here must hope that print declines actually slow and/or digital increase as a much higher rate to convince creditors that there is a path to recovery without another bankruptcy. This means that cash flow must stabilize and actually start to increase well before this debt reaches maturity so that creditors can see a path to recovery.

  • Reply to

    Watch for Acquisition by a known Value Investor

    by econoalpha Oct 14, 2014 9:08 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 17, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Ouch! LOL

  • Reply to

    Reentry?

    by tna992001 Oct 15, 2014 12:24 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 17, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    TNA - This may be your chance to get out. Oil is recovering and may get back to that $85 area on the bounce I was expecting. Read as much as you can about what may happen with Saudi Arabia and OPEC as far as pricing to see if there has been a change in sentiment. Likely, oil will retest $80 again. This means that you should sell PQ if you can time the height of this bounce. Even more likely, PQ will drop again and revisit low $4s again when oil retests low. IF $80 BREAKS, market is going to take a beating and PQ will likely move down to $3.75 area or even lower. Oil will drop to $75 area if $80 breaks based on how the charts are shaping up.

    I do not see PQ getting back above $5 unless something fundamentally changes with sentiment regarding oil prices. Keep a close eye on what is happening in Middle East.

  • Reply to

    Lawsuit

    by brandmarty22 Oct 15, 2014 2:15 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 15, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    That is what lawyers do. They find somebody to sue, right? Gotta pay the bills. After there is nobody left, they are going to sue Altini for being a hostile and unreasonable shareholder! :-))

  • Reply to

    lawsuit against wamu director and officers

    by batsbats100 Oct 15, 2014 5:43 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 15, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    I know Bats has lost it because he thinks that he is getting paid on his Ps before common shareholders from the liquidation trust and we all know that any funds that reach equity get split 75% for preferred and 25% for common. Jeez.

  • Reply to

    Reentry?

    by tna992001 Oct 15, 2014 12:24 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 15, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    Yes, a nice little retracement with the market recovering. EXXI was up big as was SD. It was hit or miss among some of the others. EOG barely back to even for the day. KOG just up slightly. This is likely just a quick bounce with these stocks in oversold condition UNLESS you see recovery in oil prices. I suspect that oil will move back up to around $85 before retesting $80. If $80 breaks, could be looking at $75 and much more pain will be inflicted upon these stocks.

    If you get a chance to dump out during this bounce in oil prices, I would strongly recommend it. That is, unless there is a fundamental change to warrant oil prices moving upward.

  • Reply to

    New ceo Walsh.

    by watchworth Oct 14, 2014 7:16 PM
    kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Oct 15, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    Gordo - I know you like to follow me around like a puppy dog. McDonald was only at Idearc near the end of its demise, that is true. He sure did not do much with the dramatically reduced debt when Idearc was transformed into Supermedia and ran that company right back into the ground. He also did not do much at RHD either other than to collect a fat paycheck.

    Why don't you talk about Walsh instead of trying to create noise? Yes, Walsh, who will be DXM's savior. LOL

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