My take is that the move in spot has been a suckers rally. I said that it would be smart to sell on the rally, especially those holding URZ and UEC. Look at URG and DNN. They have not performed. If things were really fundamentally better, CCJ would continue back into the $20s and likely move back up to $21-22 area.
Since oil continues to be weak and it appears that the power that be wants to push it down lower, uranium prices are going to have a difficult time holding here. I will continue to argue that nothing has really fundamentally changed. The approval to start some Japanese reactors was more of a psychological pop for the sector. Japan still has a huge stockpile and it is going to take a long time to work it back down considering the time it will take to get at least half of their reactors up and running. I could talk about China and Europe, specifically Germany, but I won't here.
Personally, I believe that spot is going to test low $30s again if oil continues to slide and likely will drop to mid $30s even if oil holds at current levels for some time. Either way, it will be some time before demand is able to sustain higher uranium prices. In the meantime, you must pick your buy and sell points carefully. If you are one to hold longer term, then lower prices are likely to come.
If you go back and read all my posts on the URZ board related to the sector and URZ in the past, you will see that I have been very good with my analysis of what was happening and have been reasonably good timing my buys and very good timing my sells.
I like that guy from Sola. He is right on the money. Why? Shareholders do not want to have to wait years and years to be rewarded. Debt is still too high to make a difference. Just think what OTEL could be doing if they did not have to spend $15mm paying down debt this year? Hell, they could have paid me a $1 per share divvy this year which would be 20% return on a $5 stock. That would have only been $3mm of that $15mm! They still would have another $12mm for capital expenditures or other investments.
Current bank loan replaced by debt that does not require quarterly principal payments could/would do wonders for OTEL's future potential AND for shareholder value.
One thing I have learned over the past several years is that opportunities will continue to present themselves. So, I do not worry about missing the train. I have also become more cautious about entry points and where to add as I have been taken down on a few train rides going in the wrong direction. Even with URZ, my average was slightly above a $1 and it is no fun being down 20% in what feels like the blink of an eye. Selling at $1.40 with majority of my position just made sense based on the initial run. Selling the rest was based on the lack of fundamental support for that run.
I have also learned to take profits as well and try to time exit points. I have been getting better at this every year which is why I try to concentrate on only a couple of handfuls of stocks that are in sectors that I have gained a reasonable understanding.
Good luck with URG. You will likely do well in the long run. It's the short term that is still a concern here.
Just saw your post. Had not been paying attention to PQ of late as I have been keenly watching uranium sector and those oil plays. Shoot, even been watching some gold plays like AUY that has been beaten down.
AREX did look like the best of the group including comparing some others beaten up like SFY. I was surprised the EOX did not bounce more, but there appears to be concern about their weak cash position. EXXI has proven to be too risky, but could bounce hard on any kind of oil rebound. AREX definitely continues to be the one to trade on here or average down on weakness.
I think CPST can provide a very good opportunity as well, but there are risks there based on Russia contracts and pain from lower energy costs. CPST still has a load of cash and no real debt. Buying in .80 area could easily get you a 50% gain that could happen within 3-4 months. Downside risk appears limited.
Sold all my URZ for a solid gain again. Too bad I am down on my CPST that I bought at $1.18. Have averaged down some when it hit .90 area. Only added some small chunks in the low .80s. URZ closed its gap from a while back. CPST still has not closed its gap which will mean big money "when" it happens.
The Kmart creditors got away with it and JD got away with it too. No matter what they would possibly "give up" at this point will be a mere pittance to what they got for under $2b.
Depends on cash flow and how they manage things. Over next three years, those principal payments could hurt quite a bit. If it takes three years for things to get moving, PPS could head back to .50s if there are a couple more rounds of dilution in the meantime. I am hesitant to buy even in mid .70s if URG is not sitting on a good amount of cash or at least can show me that they can are not going to need to dilute further. I am also not a buyer of URZ here either. Under $1, URZ is the better buy considering the much lower debt and cost structure. However, URG presents more opportunity with higher uranium prices. Could be a tough call to choose if URG is sitting at, let's say, .60 and URZ is holding .90. If URZ PPS approaches URG's again, URZ will be the clear choice in my opinion. As usual, I will not even think about buying UEC, URRE, or some of the others. Under right conditions, FCUUF could be a nice play. Probably need a PPS under .40 to get me excited, however.
You answered your own question within the question itself. Wow!
Actually, premarket is pretty much meaningless especially for a stock with a low share count. To answer your question related to trades during a normal trading session, the bid and ask will be further apart when there are few shares being traded.
I think Cameco revisits $17 before it sees $22. I would be surprised to see $22 in near-term. Your prediction of $27 is going to take much more than a few Japanese restarts. Probably closer to half up and running to even think about a PPS in that range.
Spot's rise did not have support. Japan has not even started any reactors and there is still a supply glut. Going to take time for things to work their way out. We could be another 18 months out or more before there are fundamental changes to support higher spot prices and, in turn, higher prices for these miners. I agree that URG could retest .70s.
Just logged on today. First, I am talking about weakness in oil that would put pressure on other commodities. Oil could continue to be weak for some time and may not move back up (meaningfully) until spring or later. If oil continues to be "cheap", it will put pressure on uranium sector.
As far as my thought process, URZ and UEC had major runs and are unlikely to sustain them. URZ moved up on news from earnings and got a boost from positive news from Japan. UEC is being manipulated and the catalyst there appears to be Soros coupled with the Japan news. Would not touch that stock.
Spot ran up in anticipation of the news of restarts, yet nothing really has changed fundamentally in the sector. Still have weak demand and too much supply. This was not solved by higher spot. Personally, I believe spot is headed back down as it will be some time before Japan restarts are meaningful.
URG is the better play at this point in time IF they avoid dilution and spot and longer-term contract pricing holds here or slowly creeps back up. In other words, URZ could move to $2 if things pick up. That is about a 50% gain. URG likely would move up to $1.50-1.80 and provide up to a 100% gain.
Could be the large debt load coupled with uncertainty of spot price holding higher levels that could help URG create cash flow necessary to start making principal payments and build up cash reserves.
However, UEC moved up dramatically and I consider that company to be in far worse shape than URG which is why I am puzzled about the reasoning behind URG's lack of stronger movement up. I guess DNN has lacked much upward conviction as well and already looks to be headed back down towards lows.
IMO - anyone that enjoyed the nice move up in UEC and URZ should be getting out now as I expect another run back down near lows for all these miners before things turn. Why? Weakness in overall energy sector led by oil will continue to pressure these other markets.
I agree. $150mm could go a long way. If LEU sensed that ACP was not going to be a go, they could get into the uranium mining business, as an example, and buy up a couple of the in-situ miners like URG and URZ. No debt risk and cash heavy gives LEU some options now.
If management even hinted about some other direction, it could make this stock soar. For now, we sit in a hole that appears to be getting deeper.
I know someone that is able to have lengthy discussions with high officials at another company. Of course, he owns at least 3% of that company. Maybe "gotta" has a boatload of shares and the CEO sensed it and decided to have a nice discussion with the state of the company.
I was able to sit down and talk with the CEO of an S&P500 company and talk business for quite some time after I was done doing some work in his home. I was impressed that he took the time to shoot the breeze with me. His wife actually knew quite a bit about the company as well even though she held no position as far as I could tell. I shot some ideas to her and she completely understood where I was coming from and interjected her thoughts as well.
So, not unusual, IMO, for a CEO or upper management taking the time to talk with a shareholder - especially if it is one with a reasonable "interest" in the company.
Five square miles. Think about that. For 140k homes at best. Terrible.
I remember Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, touting one of these fields of solar panels. It went on forever based on the view from the camera. He pointed to a power plant and proudly stated that these panels could generate 1/2 of 1% of the required energy for the power plant. I could not believe he said that with a straight face. After watching that video a few years back, I decided that solar was not the answer (at least in the next decade or so.)
Coal is bad. Wind power is not working out so well. Hydro - not so much. What do you have left?
Oil, gas, and nuclear.
If you are new to investing, this is not the stock to own. At least, on a positive note, it is at the lower end of its trading range. So, downside is somewhat limited here. If oil keeps going lower, it will take this stock down with it regardless of higher natty prices. How low could it go? Likely, it could retest $3.50s and maybe move to just under $3. If that happens, I am sure you will find other stocks like maybe AREX that could move up substantially higher when things turn.
For example, PQ could go from $3-6. AREX could be at $6 and easily go to $18. Look at AREX's recent rebound from lows compared to PQ. Notice the difference. If AREX retests lows or goes even lower, I will be a buyer this time.