Stock up 8% on the report. ~$2B for the year in profits. Raising Dividend payments and $60B market cap. Bullish on China. ...but OK I agree they are not in a position (with market cap almost halved over last year) to make a move on POT...there is about 0% chance of that happening at this point.
Potash Corp with Potash is like Saudi Arabia with Oil. They are both the lowest cost producer with the largest supply and their respective commodity is getting killed by prices due to a cartel breakdown. Not sure if that tells us anything...just thought it was an interesting perspective.
This stock has gone from 28 to 60+ in less than a year twice in its history. I am not saying that will happen again, but you never know what is around the corner with regard to global demand, cartels, consolidation, and Fert prices.
Agenda and motivation of Barron's aside. It really is not a far stretch using basic investment strategy fundamentals to see that the current price is a bargain considering cap ex is ending and Potash prices have stabilized... and POT is lowest cost producer and market share giant... forward PE, Cash, Dividends...etc. 34 by end of 2016? That really is not a stretch of the imagination. Just say'n.
I don't suppose. I know because I deal in facts and have done my due diligence on this and formed my opinion based on that. Are you asking how long the U.S. has had the EPA? If you don't know that...not sure why you are making all the claims you are.
I do see your point... and you may be correct. However, with a high "and safe" dividend I think institutions may enter again once POT provides a clear picture of what they are doing to improve shareholder value. That may take a while...but I am long term here so will continue to reinvest divys until that move happens. In the end, lower cap costs will show themselves...along with lowest cost production and high cash flow...this remains a good investment especially here. Retail bag holders who sell will play into the institutions hands from here... those who bought on the way down played into their hands. I think this is a solid hold right now with possible buy...but important to see POT's plan for future shareholder value before any more significant purchases.
There is proof. I think you need to do some more due diligence on this if you truly want to understand it. Gov allowed mining on government land and didn't have clean up requirements in place...so miners just left. So with your logic, this is still the government's fault.
As everyone can see ...any mention of the K&S deal being alive and POT share price increases. We have seen this over the last month anytime the deal, thought to be dead, shows life. Those saying that the share price is declining because of the uncertainty of this deal I think need to look at this trend. POT shares decline when the market thinks the deal is dead or dying...and POT shares increase whenever there is news that it is still alive. As I said before...I think 44 Euros will close this deal and we will then (over months) see and understand POTs strategy with regard to purchasing K&S. There is clearly something we the retail investor are not seeing with regard to value associated with this purchase.
I think you have some good points above. A couple that I would refine a bit... a purchase of K&S does expand capacity true...but it also reduces world non-POT supply and I think that is worth mentioning. Regardless of what POT agrees to about running the mines...they will be control of the Potash supply. Second, you said "Where did $20 Billion in market cap go?! " ...and listed a few reasons. The reason was the drop in Potash prices pure and simple and we all know why they dropped so not worth mentioning. A share buy back at low interest rates has it attractiveness...but don't forget that carrying debt into a declining market/economy might not be the most prudent thing to do. I realize the K&S purchase would create debt also...so I am on the fence with that as well and believe there is an unknown strategy at work and desperately trying to understand what that is.
Dougzilla - Your logic doesn't work. They had an accident... they hit a dam wall they shouldn't have...call it what you want but it doesn't matter how cesspool got there. They did not have the right procedures in place to prevent a land mover from knocking down a dam wall holding back the cesspool. BP had an accident too...didn't mean to do it... but due to lack of safety procedures it happened. They can learn from each other... enjoying wearing that shoe? Does it fit?
Yes of course the $13.5B is deductible...and it should be. I think Nelson is just trying to use the deductible reason as a reason to open and read the settlement...not sure why he wants it public so bad but I am guessing there is a political element to it.
True and agree. However, you are leaving out the demand portion of this equation. Future supply will impact growth...but future demand will continue growth. What the investor needs to determine (impossible for a quantitative measurement) is whether future demand will exceed future supply. :)
I think he can make comparisons. It is the amount of money a company "makes" that is key here...not the price of the commodity necessarily. Also raccoon points out the cost of entry as an indicator of value...good point for sure. Potash is there producing now...compared to an investment of $15B for the right to produce in x number of years in the future.
Didn't K&S complain that they didn't receive a formal offer prior? Maybe this is POT's way of checking that box and providing more details of their offer in an official written offer.
Volumes on the sell side slide have not been substantial. I think this decline is largely due to strong dollar and lack of enthusiasm with commodities... grains etc. China scare is part of it also. Also the pricing pressure on the ferts... nothing more and nothing less. POT is well positioned to take advantage of increased demand over the years as population explodes but farming land does not. China will be a big buyer (they have to be)... so I can't comment on the short term trade...but longer term POT is a good place to be.
Agree. Welcome back to the Majors BP. Nicely positioned for the future and to ride out these prices... becoming (with the 6%+ div) a nice way to play the oil pull back.
With earnings and cash. They have proven very well they can navigate this oil price slump pretty well... always go with the good managed companies. BP is obviously hyper focused on managing debt...they have diversified well into downstream business... all this bodes VERY well for maintaining dividend. Not really in question or mentioned as a possibility with anyone who understands the numbers. Only on these message boards do you hear questions about it... interesting isn't it?
so putting the pricing softness aside, putting the strong dollar aside, oh...and also the commodity downward trend... putting all this aside for a minute. POT prints money - up and down for sure depending on pricing environment and competitive cartel situation... POT has an incredible cash flow based on their cost structure...you just have to have a long term horizon with this company and re-invest the divs. It is a safe place to be in this market...especially at the multiples POT is at now. For new buyers...a great entry point in a rocky market. It may need a capitulation moment though and maybe this Q's report will be it... not sure. Either way I am find with this investment as I have a 15 year outlook...