little mention of the fact that GLU Mobile picked up CIE for about a 1/3rd discount based on the stock part of the deal. The deal stated GLU will us stock to pay $70M - the stock was determined by average price over last 10 trading days ending July 29th. Without KKH (and when deal was finalized KKH was not released) CIE would have received 1/3 to 1/2 more stock than they did. This turned out very well for GLU and their share holders... I am sure CIE management was kicking themselves over those 10 days.
Just to be clear - I don't think "gave" is correctly stating what they did. They "purchased" assets of CIE which they will use to increase their revenue and Net. Cost was $100M. The question is whether with what they received will increase their "value" or "market cap" by $100M - the answer is that it will likely do this immediately but the plan is to grow the business using the GLU technology and synergy...1+1=3. These results will be evident early next year - to mid next year.
It will hurt short term PPS... however, they are building a very nice large company and have done well with their acquisitions in the past. Paying $100M for a 27 grossing game... also demonstrates GLUU is very under valued for what they have..
The video with Hoenig is a really good example why it is not worth listening to these guys for investment advice. All he talked about was the KKH game and its staying power...one hit wonder concern. If he had researched GLUU he would see that all their guidance for the year is made without the assumption of hits...they are the only Mobile game company that can say that. He would have also seen that KKH does have staying power - example their stupid TV show has been on for years... With some research he would have seen that KKH is another franchise for GLUU and that many games can spawn from this... that the user base is RICH for advertising...that is diversified GLUU who was a shooting adventure game company.
I happen to have followed GLU Mobile for a while and therefore can see through what he was saying...but there are many times these guys talk about stocks I don't follow and would have no idea if they were on target or not. Really in the end...they are very useless to the investor.
In the example of GLUU, $600M is the market cap and compared to fair valuation...that is low considering the future. GLUU might go down after earnings or it might not...but over six months perspective...this stock is clearly a buy here.
Good point - I stand corrected. Net is the impact on the royalties to KK. I think it is the revenue number that will stand out...makes it complicated. However, that puts my estimate above $180 for the year guidance... could be $190+ with this correction.
I think you are right on the positioning... they will say they are raising annual guidance based on their Q3 visibility but will shy from raising their previous Q4 until they see how things shake out. Lets say KKH does $45M in Q3...that is roughly $20M conservatively to GLUU and is added on top of their previous Q3 estimates. Dino/DH doing well do should make them feel comfortable with the $20M...although they may go conservative and only raise $15M. It is their style to not extend themselves - especially now when they have a couple quarters of success built in. I think $180M is benchmark. Real play on the stock will come in 13 weeks when they announce Q3 with a sound beat and raise Q4... with this in mind, buying on the dips would be prudent if it does dip.
I am going on record to say I think guidance will be raised to $180M for the year. Anything higher and stock will pop. Anything lower and stock will flat to slightly lower. I think it call comes down to this.
Question is what level of guidance... Q3 with KKH could be $80M quarter or higher...but will they play it conservative and say $60M? If they do...then what happens to the stock? I think you are correct that if you hold through earnings you need to be prepared to go the the 13 weeks as I think the ER for Q3 will be much higher than what they guide and that will be confirmation for the year and KKH. I really don't expect this management to provide any "real" guidance numbers here...they will guide higher that is for sure...but I think their guidance will be very conservative compared to what investors are thinking and will disappoint. We go flat to slightly down for a couple weeks. Q3 ER will be the one to shoot for...
...over the last week. Combined volumes have never been seen in this stock. Someone just figured out that valuation is low - and company has demonstrated two consecutive quarters beating estimates (never seen before either). Looking at the new EA of Mobile games...
...becoming a cult stock. There are stocks that become favorites and succeed because they are favorites. They enter the world of being "cool"... I think GLUU might be entering this world. There are now Hollywood types having conversations about this new "trend" of using their brand for mobile games. Never before discussed I am sure. GLUU, if they play their hand correctly will emerge as the cool Game Company who provides this access. Folks who never played games ...will download these to check them out. WallStreet will take notice of this new "market"... etc. etc.
I can hear KK friends calling their Financial Agents and asking them to buy a few thousand shares of this company making money off of KK. Articles/News will follow.... CNBC can't ignore anymore. I am not saying this has happened...but I feel we are very close to this happening which will launch the stock into the teens. Regardless - the valuation is still very attractive at $500M so good entry point before the storm.
Their track record with acquisitions has been spot on. So, having this is their hip pocket for an opportunity should it arise is fine with me. I think they will get acquired themselves before their next acquisition. There is no diluting anyway...until they decide to utilize it and then if it is for something accretive equal to their investment the dilution is neutralized.
Hmmm... why did you bank your profit when just this morning you said selling would be prudent and this was just a pop? It sounds like even you stopped listening to your own guidance...it appears you lost credibility with yourself. How ironic is that.
""Over the three months to March, the mobile games developer earned an adjusted 6 cents a share, 4 cents higher than analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected.""
""Revenue surged 90.1% year over year to $47 million, beating estimates of $39.5 million.""
""We rate GLU MOBILE INC (GLUU) a SELL.""
Am I the only one who sees the contradiction here? Classic...
Good summary. The recent drop was obviously (as we now know since the Q earnings yesterday) MARKET driven and focused on Social and Technology stocks as a group not GLUU in particular. Correct, I did not see that coming and was therefore wrong when I said it would not take a rest...obviously it did based on market conditions which are always an unknown. However, all other comments are still valid - based on valuation and what we have learned from the earnings calls. I stand by them.
Thanks! Your advice in the past has been so helpful (see your comments below prior to earnings)
""earnings will be down 25% from q4, guidance will be lowered. Every new game they came out with after dh14 sucked in quality and revenues. Nothing big coming and dh14 fading away. ""
Nice call Trading_trends. Earnings up and guidance raised instead. Of course anyone following this company knew this was going to happen - you would have to be very green to think otherwise ...especially after they told investors in March (last month of quarter) the games were exceeding their expectations.
Upgrades and price targets of $6 and $7 will put this back to $5 where the option sellers expect it to be. Watch and learn.