bump. with just a couple weeks before Q2 results are revealed, I think it is essential for any investor or potential investor in Infosonics to listen to the CEO in this interview.
People often listen to an earnings conference call to try to glean some meaning from the careful words of management, but in this interview Ram basically puts his cards on the table, in my opinion.
more transcription. I just wanted to go back and listen to this again. Although the interviewer's questions are just plain dumb, Ram's words are telling, I think:
"Our growth in the verykool product line has been exponential. We’ve been growing steadily and quite nicely over the last couple years. Of course the transition from a distribution business to a manufacturing business hasn’t been easy and we made a lot of mistakes. The good new is that we survived it and are thriving now. And now we are well positioned for growth because we already reached that scale we were looking very hard to reach....We feel we are in the right spot right now.
....the market has shifted away from operators and more prepaid plans are coming into the market. So as we shifted our business to expand what we have with the operators into the retail section. So big box retailers, online, and just general distribution help us to increase our business, increase our product range that we are able to offer into the market and we see an expansion of sales and expansion of margin all at the same time while we are able to maintain our operational expenses in check. These are positive trends that allow us to be profitable two consecutive quarters and we feel that we’ve turned a corner in that sense."
What I notice on a second pass is that he uses the word N-O-W. It's generally "we did this", "we have done that," but he slips up slightly to say "thriving now" and "in a sweet spot right now." Right now is Q2.
He could have said, "we're prepared to weather rough spots," or "ready for challenges" or anything else but instead he said, "thriving now."
thanks for the heads up.
more or less in Ram's words:
"I think that if you look at our business model over the last two quarters, I think it’s about scale and about your ability to maintain your operational costs in check. So, our operational costs are pretty much a fixed cost at this point. So any increase in revenue assuming our gross margins stay flat drops serious money to the bottom line. Our focus as a company is to expand our top line revenue. We feel that the expansion of the top line revenue, maintaining operational expenses at the same level or increased at a smaller rate compared to revenues that will improve our overall bottom line results.
...We feel that as a company we have a tremendous amount of opportunity because we are a small company in a very big ocean. We operate from a very small base. We have an opportunity to expand our market share and our sales to a much much bigger level.... to me as a CEO my focus is on making sure we have the right human resources in place, the right product in place, and that we also have the capital that we need to grow from this point on. So all these elements are coming together to bring the company to the next level."
I don't enjoy the prospect of dilution, but Infosonics has the pieces in place for extraordinary growth in next few years. $25 M for a company that currently has a $35 M market cap?!
You're right, in that selling the company is a possibility in that time frame. That might be the best way for Ram to get his money out.
use your own judgement, but the reviews seem fake to me. I doubt that the company is paying someone to post these, but more likely it's infosonicsunbiased or another interested party.
I think that the value of the verykool phones can speak for itself. It doesn't help when all the reviews are fake.
Or is it only coincidence that this same group also reviewed the kegel balls and "the giraffe who taught me how to laugh"?
I think that the intensity of the competition in this market is a fair point for longs to consider. I do not think that this idea is lost on J. Ram, though.
He's proved himself to be a scrappy competitor in the cell phone market for many years and has some battle scars to show for it. He had already started the verykool brand when the Argentine rug was pulled out from under him and has successfully changed his business model to suit the market.
Though the competition is fierce, I feel okay with the tenacious Isreali at the helm. You may find some growing companies where you doubt that the management has what it takes to pull it off, but I don't have that concern with Ram.
My thumbs were just a spike. And I cheated.
No doubt you're the undisputed thumbs down champion. You've worked hard for the title. ;)
I think that everyone realizes that we just got the news we needed with the earnings report and 10Q.
Regarding inventory, it's interesting to note that in addition to the 7.9 million in net inventory, they have $1.17M more inventory already paid for. So, that's 9M in inventory on hand or paid for at the start of the quarter when the total revenue in Q2 14 was 10.5M.
Gimme a thumbs down if you think they'll crush last year's revenue for Q2.
US sales increased 500% yoy from Q1 14, even better than the 100% increase in US sales from Q4 over the prior year.
More important than these isolated number is that we're witnessing a growth in US sales that makes the US portion a more consistent and meaningful component of overall sales at nearly 7% of overall this past quarter.
Interestingly, the Q1 breakdown shows balance among the other regions IFON breaks out (Central Am, S Am, Mexico, US to Latin AM). Each accounting for around 1/4 of revenues with the US picking up the rest.
The crazy thing is that the 2.47 number is below average for IFON. It was 3.5 for Q2 14 and average 3.2 since Q1 13. Using the average would suggest a 25m quarter, which seems nutty, so it's good you used the more conservative number.
This side point really calls attention to the incredible way IFON has built inventory levels at an accelerating rate. Which calls attention to the rate they're bringing in cash through their increasing 'open market' sales.
These sales come at a higher margin and with quicker payment, allowing IFON to borrow ....and pay back.. 3M within the quarter. Building inventory and cash while not affecting debt levels.
I don't have a 2015 estimate for you, but I'll say that if they're ten times 2014, like you suggest, then we'll see better than 15x.
Ifon's price has shown some correlation with the larger market with the coincidence of the recent drop. I also think that the current price is a reflection of some skepticism about whether IFON can deliver solid results again. If we believe they're on the right track and have the financial position and management ability to continue on track, then the best we can do, in my opinion, is ignore the noise, read the report when it's published, and think about what's next on the horizon for this little phone company.
for fiscal years 2006 to 2014, Q1 has been the weakest quarter for infosonics 3 times. Q2 has also been the weakest 3 times. On the other hand, Q1 has been the strongest quarter of the year 3 times, as has Q4, but Q2 never has.
Over this time period, the race for total revenue breaks out like this:
Q3 = 294
Q1 = 292
Q2 = 287
Q4 = 279
This is over an evolving business model and global financial upheaval, but reflects, in my opinion, how cyclical ifon's cell phone business is, or is not.
I'm personally hoping that after a solid Q1-15, the first quarter will justify the myth by being the weakest of this year.
Until earlier in the year (I think) verykool had its own sales portal. Now, if you go through their site to the "store" you're linked directly to amazon. I don't know exactly how the relationship with manufacturers works, but I'd guess that amazon is important to their online sales in the US.