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Sanofi Message Board

kirkydu 41 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 12 minutes ago Member since: Oct 30, 1998
  • kirkydu kirkydu Jun 15, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Excellent link. Preview the USPSTF "A" rating there folks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • EXAS just became a very hard stock to short as USPSTF just destroyed s major plank in the short thesis and the reason for the drop in price from 20ish to 5ish. Expect the gap to fill. From there it'll be execution (sales) dependent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Jun 15, 2016 9:34 AM Flag

    Yes. All "A" rated tests get coverage. Cologuard is an "A" rated test.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    beginning of filling the gap

    by kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 1:17 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 15, 2016 9:31 AM Flag

    We'll see how high EXAS gets on this over the next 6 weeks. It might fill that gap quicker than I thought.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ANY BETS ??

    by retireearly55 Apr 18, 2016 9:12 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 6:59 PM Flag

    Here's the thing, they don't need to "change" anything. An "A" rating is an "A" rating even if it is "alternative" to colonoscopy. I think people have had that wrong all along what "alternative" means. What wouldn't surprise me is if USPSTF made everything an alternative to colonoscopy, butt all "A" rated. That way they affirm colonoscopy as their preferred gold standard, but don't preclude the others.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    USPSTF final rating appears imminent - GS

    by kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 6:07 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 6:56 PM Flag

    it could, it could. I'm so trigger shy after getting my #$%$ handed to me on a half dozen picks that I'm just waiting. Interestingly, if only one of my picks does well, I'm even. If two, then I'm very good. If the three I have left all do well, then I'm smart again. As Peter Lynch said:

    "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don?t work out."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    USPSTF final rating appears imminent - GS

    by kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 6:07 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 6:10 PM Flag

    When USPSTF comes out, it will be clear that Cologuard gets an A or B rating. It all depends on how they want to defend colonoscopy whether it's A or B. Either way, it'll mandate coverage and then it simply becomes a sales execution story with no regulatory hurdles left as HEDIS and STAR measurements follow.

    Ultimately, I believe so long as EXAS slightly beats sales and slightly under-spends projections, the stock fills the gap back to upper teens by this time next year, maybe sooner.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Somebody hit this on the head today, not sure who, but I believe this led to short covering:

    Goldman Believes Key Update On Exact Sciences Reimbursement 'Appears Imminent'
    Goldman Sachs analyst Isaac Ro issued an after-hours note Tuesday commenting on intra-day price action in EXACT Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS). With EXACT shares up more than 30 percent over the session, Ro noted "an updated USPSTF website which could have bearing on future reimbursement of Cologuard." Related Link: Exact Sciences Continues Mysterious Rally The analyst said, "We take no position on the Final Recommendation and potential financial impact to EXAS but note the timing comes sooner than expected. If Cologuard were included as a recommended screening method we would view the news as a positive for EXAS shares." Ro maintained a Neutral rating on shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shilson covering

    by airfreshner4farks Jun 6, 2016 4:41 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    well, somebody covered and a lot of others followed suit, unless there's a new pardner as I suggested they should look for. Or maybe just a big fund buying 4%. We'll know soon enough.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is most likely the beginning of short covering ahead of several positive catalysts. Ultimately, I believe the gap is filled back to upper teens. Who knows after that? It'll be execution dependent then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8 is near...Mid teens by Xmas

    by jameshwalker99 Jun 8, 2016 12:21 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 8, 2016 8:15 PM Flag

    I've already said I think it fills the gap back to upper teens by next spring. DCF doesn't make any sense for a company like this. Just multiply number of potential patients times percentage you think they'll get times $500. I think they could be $3b in rev by 2019 in most optimistic case btw.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8 is near...Mid teens by Xmas

    by jameshwalker99 Jun 8, 2016 12:21 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 8, 2016 4:38 PM Flag

    there's no reason to hype. This is a slow moving train gaining momentum. Conroy said a year-and-a-half ago this would be a 2+ year process to commercialize. Reasonable timeline is USPSTF confirms A (or B) rating, United Healthcare and other companies cover to bump to 100% insurance coverage from today's about 70%, educating doctors, HEDIS and STARS points incentivize docs and going after never been tested market via TV will take another year or so. By about 2018-19, revenue should be around $1.2b/year without taking any colonoscopy share. If it takes all of FIT (which I believe it will) and some colonoscopy screening for average risk, then revenue could be pushing $3b/year. We'll see, it's a wide range, butt, quite a bit higher from here either way. Be patient. This is one you buy and hold for a few more years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SEC Filing

    by dhilcpa Jun 8, 2016 2:26 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 8, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    generally having to do with proprietary technology or some sort of agreement with another company. Hard to know. This isn't the first time EXAS has used that clause. Can't remember exactly what it was used for before.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thank you for the cheap shares

    by kirkydu May 4, 2016 3:25 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu May 4, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    There have been two big headwinds for EXAS:

    The first is the NORMAL pace of adoption that folks can't be patient with driving a downward spiral in price. Once again I point people to a chart out there with the title "valley of death" which you can find in Forbes and some other places which shows a regular curve that companies that have to go through adoption face.

    The second is more macro in nature. The baby boomers are net sellers of stocks now. That's a huge hurdle for small and midcaps which get perceived as being more risky. Thus, that's where the most pain has been. Good traders know this and they pick on stocks they can create a narrative on by saturating the internet and then claiming to be right when the stock goes down, which feeds on itself. I've been invited to join groups that do it (and said no). It's crazy unethical and probably illegal, but how is the SEC which is vastly underfunded going to police it. My response was to retrench portfolios late last year and only invest on extreme undervaluation. EXAS is extremely undervalued based on price to future revenue (high or low expectations), so I'm a buyer. I'm sure I'll take some profits in the upper teens next year (maybe we'll get lucky and it happens after USPSTF clarification in a few months).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 2 new clients able to buy a LOT of shares today. I believe EXAS will emerge from this valley of despair (GTS) and be upper teens within a year. BCBS contracts are a big deal. Matter of time for Humana and Cigna contracts. USPSTF addition to "A" rated - which is what is happening regardless of phraseology- is a major positive catalyst that is completely obfuscated. Investors want to add.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Amazing Ignorance on Social Media

    by ametzler451 Apr 20, 2016 9:33 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 20, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    it also shows how incredibly bad most analysts are. I'm on TipRanks as Kirk Spano and can't believe I crush them so badly. How do they have jobs?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    False Positive Rate = 6.6%

    by citadel.mgr72 Apr 19, 2016 3:46 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 20, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    I replied to a couple of the Twitterers about the real calculation. One sent me a note that he understood the real calculation put sensitivity in a very good place. He sent out his garbage tweet anyway. Agendas, ignorance, impatience. It's common.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    comercial

    by dann1500 Apr 11, 2016 12:50 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 18, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    frankly, I don't like the commercial. It plays around the edges and tries to be too cute. It needs to be harder hitting and better explained with a better voice over. This isn't a pregnancy test. This is a cancer test. Cancer kills. Talk about colon cancer mortality and early detection.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FDA approval of Epi proColon

    by sstephanc Apr 13, 2016 9:52 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 18, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    the only risk from this test is if it is marketed deceptively and takes hold. For early detection of colon cancer, only Cologuard and colonoscopy make any real sense. Butt, we'll see what the market thinks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EXAS could fill gap within 3 quarters to $18

    by kirkydu Apr 13, 2016 11:22 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 18, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    the chart tells the story. If EXAS executes, then a run to $18 will be very fast and sharp. If EXAS doesn't execute, then a retrace to the $5s is in store. Pretty simple now. $EXAS is an execution story. The upside is far greater than the downside, so having a position makes a lot of sense. I like $8 Jan 2018 LEAPs as those give a lot of margin for things to play out positively, i.e. in case sales don't ramp until next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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