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SPDR S&P Retail ETF Message Board

kirkydu 91 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 45 minutes ago Member since: Oct 30, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Cologuard vs FIT & EXAS 3-5 year outlook

    by kirkydu Jun 18, 2016 10:40 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu 2 hours 45 minutes ago Flag

    Seems there is some accumulation in EXAS on this thesis. Breaks 12.50 and holds on a weekly, there's another big leg up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $12.50 important level, could breakout big there

    by kirkydu Jun 24, 2016 4:02 PM

    Well, suddenly EXAS is at 12.50 almost like it was foreshadowed by somebody with little birdies to talk to. This is important. If it closes over 12.50 this week that is a sign the gap will fill sooner than later. I'm going to get a Hershey bar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If it breaks 12.50 on next try, the shorts are going to have to scramble big. That'll be a battle ground price. Shorts won last week. We'll see the next time.

    Both of these guys cited $12s.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-stocks-to-watch-2016-06-16?page=2

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/06/23/biotech-stock-bounce-picks-up-momentum/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#550fda455102

    Was also in technical newsletters including one at MarketWatch

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/06/23/biotech-stock-bounce-picks-up-momentum/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#550fda455102

    need sub to see that one.

    What's very important is a lot of newsletter traders are getting this info. If they pile on and push it through, as networked traders are apt to do, EXAS could fill the gap to upper teens very quickly. The short interest is like a dry pine tree. It could go up quick.

    Very little incentive to take gains right now with positive catalysts and potential for breakout. Even if it doesn't breakout this time just hold, it will eventually.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cologuard vs FIT & EXAS 3-5 year outlook

    by kirkydu Jun 18, 2016 10:40 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 21, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    yeah, I could be conservative. I actually think we'll see around 5m tests by 2019-20, but even my conservative posting makes this a much higher market cap company. Shorts and folks who are looking at buying EXAS can make use of the middle view.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only about 60ish% of prescribed FITs get done. But that still results in 11m test per year. Cologuard has far higher compliance and is going to get reimbursed by 100% of the market soon. That means docs, who are most concerned with compliance, will switch to once every 3 years Cologuard vs every year FIT. So, there will be about 18m FIT + Cologuard prescribed per year with a great % per year being Cologuard. By late next year EXAS could be having 250k/q tests. By 2019-20 EXAS could have the entire market and be doing around 5m tests per year from about 6m prescribed at compliance around 80%. This is ex-foreign markets.

    remember to divide total # of FIT by 3 to get total number of prescribed Cologuard.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If patients are compliant, the two tests are roughly equal. Here's the thing, we know that less than 1% of patients are compliant with FIT. That's how low. Under 1%. Why? Because it has to be taken every year for a decade to get the cumulative screening benefit that is necessary.

    Virtually nobody stays compliant with FIT. In fact, most people are out of compliance by year 3 or 4. So, with Cologuard, which is an improving technology that's already equal to FIT, being an only once very 3 year test, compliance sky rockets in comparison. The name of the game to dramatically reduce colon cancer is compliance. That is why Cologuard will take over virtually all of the FIT market within about 3-4 years (just as FIT did to FOBT so this is not unusual).

    There are 10-11m FIT per year. That means there will be about 3-4m Cologuard per year by decade end just by taking FIT market share. There is also the unscreened population of over 20m people to tap into as well. In addition, it is likely that many people, particularly those on Medicare & have had a colonoscopy at a younger age, switch to Cologuard. Finally, since the test gets retaken every 3rd year, it's not just new patients, but repeat patients that occur in year 4 (2019-20...). So, there is a very real possibility that there are well over 6m Cologuard test done per year by 2020. That's $3b in revenue right there without taking into account anything outside of the U.S.

    Ultimately I believe EXAS takes a partner or partners to develop parts of their pipeline of over two dozen products. That will alleviate cash burn, which will be coming down on net by Q4 this year anyway and relieve the possibility of needing to issue equity. There's a chance the company might even avoid issuing debt (I'd prefer small debt and specialized development partners).

    I am maintaining my $40-60 price target for end of decade and believe the outlying possibilities lie to the upside north of $100/share if a buyout materializes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Next week I'll have an article on Seeking Alpha regarding EXAS business model, catalysts over the next year and range of expected revenues through 2019.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I wonder if shorts are starting to give up the ghost finally.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ACA requirements

    by softmachine3 Jun 17, 2016 11:05 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 17, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    HEDIS and STAR are coming, but it might not be until next year. If EXAS gets HEDIS next month that's a big bonus.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    yeah. I think compliance will soar. The docs need education and insistence by patients. Some of the older docs are being stubborn according to several clients and people I know in medicine - not uncommon with something new, just part of adoption process.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    I bought in 2007-2009 initially. Lowest price was $1.65. Traded out of a lot in upper $20s started buying back in low $20s and loaded up on calls around $6 this time. Not sure it matters. At upper teens I'm a king again. Sure would like to see a run to $30ish by January 2018 though, it would help a lot of folks retirement including mine.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    Wayyyyyyyy ahead of you boss.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    I don't think people understand that screening is about compliance. Cologuard has a huge advantage over FIT since it's only every 3rd year vs every year. FIT compliance is literally under 1% - it's a complete failure. Cologuard will take entire FIT market this decade and improve overall compliance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    beginning of filling the gap

    by kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 1:17 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    agreed. Without big shorts attacking, the gap could fill by July.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Only "alternative" for shorts is too cover

    by kirkydu Jun 15, 2016 9:37 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    The retail shorts should have listened to me. The momentum is huge now. Look at the quant and tech data. We could see $12-13 today yet. Crazy. Then again, I've said we'd close the gap to upper teens by next year. Maybe it's sooner and quicker. We'll see. Being short the next six weeks is playing with account balance death.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    This pathway is pretty apparent to me. FIT will be dead soon. Folks have to remember that EXAS has a replacement for it in their test even coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CBS News

    by l0410z Jun 16, 2016 11:55 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:23 PM Flag

    I think it was more a misstep by USPSTF with colon cancer screening than the other way around. That's probably why the chair was dismissed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    Q$ = Q4 but might as well = Q$4

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • FIT has about 18m tests ordered a year. About 10m are completed. Given it's an every year test, that means nobody is compliant within a few years, as the recent research showed about 1% cumulative compliance. Without compliance, FIT, though theoretically about equal to Cologuard, has had virtually no impact in reducing colon cancer. Why the low compliance on FIT. The huge reason for the compliance failure is that from ages 50-64 almost nobody goes to the doctor every year.

    Over the next 2-3 years as HEDIS and STAR points are awarded, docs will switch from FIT to Cologuard since it's going to be paid by both commercial insurance and Medicare. The docs don't care about cost first, they care about preventing cancer first. Ultimately, FIT will disappear and Cologuard will be doing around 4-5m tests per year, improving compliance and reducing cancer.

    The improved compliance and reduction in cancer care expenses is why Medicare, BlueCross, Humana and Cigna are supportive of Cologuard. They know over time they save money. Only United Healthcare is married to the idea of arbitraging your health by pushing off as much as possible to Medicare, frankly, as an insurance licensed guy for over 20 years, UHC is consistently remarkably amoral at best and often immoral - that's just the way it is.

    So, Exact will exceed expectations this year by a little. By Q$ next year, with HEDIS and STAR at some point next year (there's a shot for this year, but I'm not holding my breath or counting on it), Cologuard could be doing a quarter million tests per quarter. By 2018, a million tests per year is a reasonable estimation. By 2019-2020 as repeat tests begin, that's when the very big jump to a higher sustained plateau occurs.

    This is a battle ground biotech because the money isn't in the bank yet. So, trade if you want, but for me, I'll hold my shares a long time and trade options around the edges on extremes.

    As per Adam F tweet and Benchmark analysts, they've been wrong a lot.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Only "alternative" for shorts is too cover

    by kirkydu Jun 15, 2016 9:37 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 15, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    There's plenty left to cover. They're some good traders picking spots. Next six weeks could see a big run up on news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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