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SPDR S&P Retail ETF Message Board

kirkydu 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 12, 2014 11:26 PM Member since: Oct 30, 1998
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  • Reply to

    October Options Action

    by mundeleinmike2 Sep 12, 2014 1:34 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    IB and OptionsXpress does. PresumeSchwab does since they bought OptionsXpress. I'll check TD tomorrow, just added them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    ok, now I'm sure I'm right. Time to put the #$%$ back on ignore.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    another rubber band pull...

    by kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:22 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    lol, ok bro. I didn't say I run a hedge fund btw, I just said my returns are right there and the track record is very public. I suspect there is a little hedgie or two here with real small amounts of money they are trying to manipulate, in fact, I'm sure of it. Which way are you going? Are you a long telling people to short looking for a squeeze to drive your calls up because you're dishonest or are you a short telling people to short because you're stupid??? It's one or the other.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    another rubber band pull...

    by kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:22 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    yep, he's one of the best Tiger Cubs, blows Tileson away. The firms that have gotten behind this company are no slouches either. Take a look at R.W. Baird, they don't invest in much, but when they do (Baird is one of the few firms I would ever work for, like when I'm about 5 years from retirement and it's time to sell the biz)... Baird wouldn't be putting their "A list" clients in EXAS if they weren't very confident in their analysis, they're a pretty moderate to conservative firm. Those Goldman Sachs guys seem to find the right side of a trade here and there too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    another rubber band pull...

    by kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:22 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    lol Farrker. Yeah, google me, I'm doing ok. Up there with the top hedge funds in the world the past 3 years. It's all on MarketWatch you #$%$. Start with "Fourteen Stocks for 2014 Halftime Report" where you can see I was up about 25% at the mid-year mark. I'm up more now and have averaged about 35% the past three years (granted, that's a hot streak, I only expect to average 15% to 25% depending on the cycle).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The more I look at this company and the way the short position was accumulated, the more I think that those telling people to short, aren't really short themselves. I think there are some people telling others to short, simply so their long call positions make them a bundle on the squeeze, which is almost inevitable since there aren't enough retail shares to cover the short positions EVER. I think it is dishonest they are doing it, but, so be it, they're actually helping me since I'm very long stock and calls (and up well over 1000% now). Shorts sellers beware, I think you are getting scammed, you should un-short asap because I am pretty certain you are about to get burned. Badly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    I think certain shorts aren't really shorts. They are long calls and deliberately encouraging others to short because the squeeze will be massive given that there simply isn't enough retail shares available to cover - EVER. The more I look at this situation, the more I think we could see EXAS make a run at $40 by year-end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Take a look at the chart, this is another classic rubber band being pulled. When CMS is announced and it's close to what EXAS asked for - which it will be (see my track record here and articles, search Kirk Spano Exact Sciences, it's pretty good) EXAS shares will pop again, just like the last three times I told you this was happening. If you are thinking EXAS is a short, good luck, you'll need it. Shorts are fighting R.W. Baird, Goldman Sachs... heck, just click the who owns this stock link... Even if every retail sold, which won't happen, there isn't enough shares for shorts to cover - EVER. This is going to be an epic short squeeze. To longs, when that happens you'll have a decision to make about how to take your profits and still keep a long term position. Use of options is your friend in that endeavor.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Conroy mentioned future pricing at the annual meeting. That's another reason CMS won't undercut Exact with a short-sighted pricing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    That is very forward looking. CMS is very motivated to make sure this test penetrates pre-Medicare age groups. A strong price helps that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    October Options Action

    by mundeleinmike2 Sep 12, 2014 1:34 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 12, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    If it's long then the puts were sold and the premium was used to partially finance buying calls, a synthetic long position. I've been doing that for five years on EXAS. My guess is somebody trying to be more clever though on the other side selling calls to partially finance buying puts. Buying both is reasonable, doing that is just speculating on a big move that could go either way. Selling both is a risky junior varsity move on a biotech with news coming as a big move could result in a big loss.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EXAS Profit Margins-Hard Work Pays Off

    by senior6analyst Sep 9, 2014 10:06 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 9, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    quaffer was at the annual meeting with me. There was a question about expansion. It seems they can scale up very rapidly in their current building, plus there is space nearby if they choose to keep it all in Madison. My guess is we ultimately see a southwest facility and maybe northeast (there's a Mayo in AZ and GA, who's to say they don't partner), but that's a few years away. My projections are similar to Seniors. Ultimately, you get about half of turning 50s (there's 5m a year for a decade) and then people who repeat the test every few years. Also, you have to consider the initial group of people who haven't been screened who would use this. That's hugely variable, but that could mean a year 1, 2 and 3 numbers much higher than anybody anticipates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 8, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    that's a fair range. Mine comes out at $60 to $100 within 3 to 5 years. PPS could go into $100s during that time frame on new products and development deals prior to a buyout if there is one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 8, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    apparently the shorts do

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 8, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    I agree. And he didn't put me on "THE LIST" either.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Article from the Wisconsin State Journal 8-31-14

    by wcsg122 Sep 5, 2014 1:31 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 5, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    it's a good article, and what is interesting is that Conroy usually talks about the conservative end of things. I happen to think 10m tests in about 4 or 5 years is a gimmee. That's U.S. only.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    23 Comments on CMS site

    by chuckles_head Sep 4, 2014 10:28 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 5, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Folks this is almost a done deal, I hope all are aware of this from CMS:
    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposes that the evidence is sufficient to cover CologuardTM – a multitarget stool DNA test – as a colorectal cancer screening test for asymptomatic average risk beneficiaries aged 50 to 85 years.
    Therefore, CMS proposes to cover the CologuardTMtest once every three years for beneficiaries who meet all of the following criteria:
    Age 50 to 85 years,
    Asymptomatic (no signs or symptoms of colorectal disease including but not limited to lower gastrointestinal pain, blood in stool, positive guaiac fecal occult blood test or fecal immunochemical test), and
    At average risk of developing colorectal cancer (no personal history of adenomatous polyps, colorectal cancer, or inflammatory bowel disease, including Crohn’s Disease and ulcerative colitis; no family history of colorectal cancers or an adenomatous polyp, familial adenomatous polyposis, or hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer).
    CMS is seeking comments on our proposed decision. We will respond to public comments in a final decision memorandum, as required by §1862(l)(3) of the Social Security Act (the Act).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 5, 2014 1:52 AM Flag

    My calls are jan 2015 and 2016 $10, to $15, so pretty happy. Selling some covered calls I think is a good idea if EXAS has become too big a position. I had to do that with SUNE early this year and could see doing if in a swueeze pop on a portion of holdings. Won't write covered calla until we approach 30 though

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 4, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    oops skinny fingered that one, over 3000 calls I meant, number is in the 3400s, shares is just under 600k, have only sold 10,000 shares to help a couple people buy houses. Will sell calls after squeeze when stock is in the $30s

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Sep 4, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    nope, own well over 2000 calls and almost half a million shares, control about a million shares

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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