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SPDR S&P Retail ETF Message Board

kirkydu 8 posts  |  Last Activity: May 4, 2016 4:48 PM Member since: Oct 30, 1998
  • Reply to

    Thank you for the cheap shares

    by kirkydu May 4, 2016 3:25 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu May 4, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    There have been two big headwinds for EXAS:

    The first is the NORMAL pace of adoption that folks can't be patient with driving a downward spiral in price. Once again I point people to a chart out there with the title "valley of death" which you can find in Forbes and some other places which shows a regular curve that companies that have to go through adoption face.

    The second is more macro in nature. The baby boomers are net sellers of stocks now. That's a huge hurdle for small and midcaps which get perceived as being more risky. Thus, that's where the most pain has been. Good traders know this and they pick on stocks they can create a narrative on by saturating the internet and then claiming to be right when the stock goes down, which feeds on itself. I've been invited to join groups that do it (and said no). It's crazy unethical and probably illegal, but how is the SEC which is vastly underfunded going to police it. My response was to retrench portfolios late last year and only invest on extreme undervaluation. EXAS is extremely undervalued based on price to future revenue (high or low expectations), so I'm a buyer. I'm sure I'll take some profits in the upper teens next year (maybe we'll get lucky and it happens after USPSTF clarification in a few months).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 2 new clients able to buy a LOT of shares today. I believe EXAS will emerge from this valley of despair (GTS) and be upper teens within a year. BCBS contracts are a big deal. Matter of time for Humana and Cigna contracts. USPSTF addition to "A" rated - which is what is happening regardless of phraseology- is a major positive catalyst that is completely obfuscated. Investors want to add.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Amazing Ignorance on Social Media

    by ametzler451 Apr 20, 2016 9:33 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 20, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    it also shows how incredibly bad most analysts are. I'm on TipRanks as Kirk Spano and can't believe I crush them so badly. How do they have jobs?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    False Positive Rate = 6.6%

    by citadel.mgr72 Apr 19, 2016 3:46 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 20, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    I replied to a couple of the Twitterers about the real calculation. One sent me a note that he understood the real calculation put sensitivity in a very good place. He sent out his garbage tweet anyway. Agendas, ignorance, impatience. It's common.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    comercial

    by dann1500 Apr 11, 2016 12:50 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 18, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    frankly, I don't like the commercial. It plays around the edges and tries to be too cute. It needs to be harder hitting and better explained with a better voice over. This isn't a pregnancy test. This is a cancer test. Cancer kills. Talk about colon cancer mortality and early detection.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FDA approval of Epi proColon

    by sstephanc Apr 13, 2016 9:52 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 18, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    the only risk from this test is if it is marketed deceptively and takes hold. For early detection of colon cancer, only Cologuard and colonoscopy make any real sense. Butt, we'll see what the market thinks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EXAS could fill gap within 3 quarters to $18

    by kirkydu Apr 13, 2016 11:22 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Apr 18, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    the chart tells the story. If EXAS executes, then a run to $18 will be very fast and sharp. If EXAS doesn't execute, then a retrace to the $5s is in store. Pretty simple now. $EXAS is an execution story. The upside is far greater than the downside, so having a position makes a lot of sense. I like $8 Jan 2018 LEAPs as those give a lot of margin for things to play out positively, i.e. in case sales don't ramp until next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • as the company executes and probably has some positive surprises, it won' take much to fill the gap back to $18. I'd expect that by Q1 next year, maybe sooner if there is no market correction in general (I expect one, see Crash Alert at Fundamental Trends).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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