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SPDR S&P Retail ETF Message Board

kirkydu 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 8:41 AM Member since: Oct 30, 1998
  • Reply to

    Leaving Y!Finance message board for Scutify...

    by kirkydu Oct 23, 2014 1:33 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 24, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    Thank you. I've gotten a lot of love the past day. Come on over to Scutify. Allows you to follow people and stocks you want with a nice dashboard set-up that only shows what you want on login. Can also go to full stock pages and front streaming page.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Leaving Y!Finance message board for Scutify...

    by kirkydu Oct 23, 2014 1:33 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 24, 2014 8:38 AM Flag

    I'll check it out. Check out Scutify and follow along. Great platform.

  • you can find me there. It's a great financial social media platform. An almost Troll-free zone.

    My last EXAS call here is that the company will exceed expectations for several years at least, that risk is far lower than the average stock and the share price will reach 100 before decade end. If you can live with quadrupling your money in about the next 5 years (about a 28% return annualized), I think in EXAS shares are pretty good place to be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    rolling

    by kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 3:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    That makes sense.

    Thanks btw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    rolling

    by kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 3:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    I'm not subject to keeping the bar low. Their going to get so much traction from those top docs it'll roll quickly. Docs are going to immediately start telling people to take this instead of FIT/FOBT. There's no reason to continue those. By mid-2015 there will be an announcement about more lab capacity. My guess is expansion and a California lab.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    rolling

    by kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 3:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    the page is public go there American Resource Boom Letter Trade Update 10-14-2014

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu by kirkydu Oct 14, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    update at American Resource Boom Letter in trading and reports section

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Oct 13, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    will soon on Seeking Alpha. Tight week, might not be out until next Monday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I have had 17 people contact me about EXAS since Friday. Their combined net worth is over 25m. I've been on Scutify and momo traders playing. We know the insti ownership and short interest. Margin calls today and tomorrow. This squeeze has a long way to go. Up well over a buck already in pre-market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Oct 10, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    and everybodyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyys a winner on 502. DRINK!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CMS approval and reimbursement at 502 destroys short thesis. They'll claim the company won't execute. Goldman Sachs thinks they're wrong, so do I. EXAS will have a series of upside surprises as people behind on their colorectal cancer screening get screened, as about 3m average risk people (the test population targets) turn 50 each year and in year 4 and 5 retesters take for second time. By about year 5 there will be 8-10m Cologuards done each year in the U.S. plus whatever happens in Canada and Europe (and probably Mexico and S. America). About 5 years out an Asia test will also be taking hold.

    Think about this, at 1m tests, the company will be earning over $2/share. That's probably by 2016, maybe even last next year. Math that out at 10m tests in 5 years.

    There is small profit taking now. Resist that urge. Stock has to cover a lot of shares, which won't be done until mid to late next week. EXAS will see 30s by next Thursday.

    Take that with as much salt as you like. I've been pretty consistently right about Exact for 6 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Oct 10, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    Here's relevant part of coverage determination:

    Code G0464 (Colorectal cancer screening; stool-based DNA and fecal occult hemoglobin (e.g.,
    KRAS, NDRG4 and BMP3)).
    Industry Recommendation: Crosswalk to Code 81315 (PML/RARalpha, (t(15;17)),
    (promyelocytic leukemia/retinoic acid receptor alpha) (eg, promyelocytic leukemia)
    translocation analysis; common breakpoints (eg, intron 3 and intron 6), qualitative or
    quantitative) PLUS Code 81275 (Kras (v-Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene) (eg,
    carcinoma) gene analysis, variants in codons 12 and 13) PLUS Code 82274 (Blood, occult, by
    fecal hemoglobin determination by immunoassay, qualitative, feces, 1-3 simultaneous
    determinations).
    CMS Recommendation: Crosswalk to Code 81315 PLUS Code 81275 PLUS Code 82274.6
    Rationale: CMS agrees with the commenters recommending the crosswalk to Code 81315
    PLUS Code 81275 PLUS Code 82274, based on similarities in function of these tests with the
    components of the new test.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Oct 10, 2014 12:58 AM Flag

    oh yeah, look at that. I'm all giddy now. Adam Feuerstein's Twitter feed had everything linked and easy to follow. Also was able to go to CMS and find it. This is pretty big.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    from today's released ibd article...

    by cokadoodledue Oct 7, 2014 5:23 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 8, 2014 2:09 AM Flag

    I think the company is going to surprise huge to teh upside if it gets a good CMS number. I think adoption will be faster than FIT. Imagine all those FIT folks talking to their doc and he says, btw, we're changing the test a little, your insurance pays for it, now you only have to do it every three years. BAM!!! Done deal. That's about 3m tests per year. Now, there's about 25m folks who aren't current on screening. About 60% of them are average risk. That's 15m people. Let's suppose half of them test within 4 years. That's an extra 1.75m test per year on average. Then there's about 3m new people per year that are average risk turning 50. Let's say they get to the 80% compliance, I think they will. Those folks repeat starting in year 4, I don't know the death rate offset vs older folks, so let's say the number is half of that so 1.2m. That's 2.4m tests. So 3m + 2.4m +1.75m + 1.2 = 8.35m test per year by about year 4. Those numbers are huge and frankly I think they'll beat those as I think compliance under ObamaCare and with Boomers hitting Medicare is going to be closer to low 90%s for compliance. Big numbers. Big numbers indeed and a lot of early beats.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    from today's released ibd article...

    by cokadoodledue Oct 7, 2014 5:23 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Oct 8, 2014 2:01 AM Flag

    I read that too. I wonder if it is a dumb reporter error or if that is where we are at that CMS has a prelim number of $502. That sure would be swell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Oct 8, 2014 1:41 AM Flag

    Cologuard is going to completely take over the FOBT/FIT market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kirkydu kirkydu Oct 7, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    sorry, "their" not "they're" speel check got me, rounded numbers on back of keybored

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • but look at the volume, there is very little really going on. EXAS only has about 4m shares available for trading. 95% of stock is owned by institutions with most having no chance of selling. If weak hands are selling, so be it, they're loss. Small caps are getting beaten up. That's the way it goes. I am advising consulting clients to go from making this a double position to a triple position. Granted, they're cost basis is around 10 - which is when I opened up to consulting vs pure managing money - so buying is an individual decision. Here's what I know. CMS is going to come out pretty good to great. EXAS by year 5 when repeat test takers really kick in will be doing about 10m tests per year in U.S. That's a lot of money. A couple years from now we'll see some Europe and Canada revs. About five years out we'll see Asian test taking hold with stomach cancer marker. That's a lot of money too. We're looking at earnings resulting from about 1.5m tests next year from the newly 50ish and stragglers from never tested populations. That's a great start, potentially $3-4 eps. Put that to a growth P/E.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Example Acquirers for EXAS?

    by senior6analyst Sep 25, 2014 3:55 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 26, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    Scruples yeah, but he's a Midwestern boy. Set low bars and clear'em easy. Every now and then you only clear by a little and nobody knows but you it was a close call. That would be a $300 CMS reimbursement.

    I was dealing with some guys on the east and west coast until recently who set the bar so high that they chronically miss and always are talking about for next time. I've distanced myself from them because they never end up doing what they say they're going to be doing. So Senior, I think it's okay that Conroy sets the bar is that a reasonable or even low level, so long as he's not outside the legitimate conservative range, because then expectations are easier to manage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Example Acquirers for EXAS?

    by senior6analyst Sep 25, 2014 3:55 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Sep 26, 2014 7:18 AM Flag

    Hey SR, if you'd like, send me an email so we can swap numbers and talk. Maybe we can set some expectations.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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