What #$%$ me off is that if the information was leaked and it is a CRL, how can the companies still be sitting on it? Just #$%$ release the news already...do they think the FDA is going to call back and say they made a mistake your approved? NO
I have no idea when a buyout might occur, but I think it is very possible to happen in the next 3-6 months or sooner. If a buyout didn't happen, I would not be upset to continue owning ARNA longer term. Who knows...with a developing pipeline, ARNA could even turn into a big pharma in the future and even pay dividends in the next decade if Belviq does as well as expected.
There are two ways to look at this...
1. Any potential acquirer would want to buy Arena now to lock in the potential of Belviq before it becomes a blockbuster and ARNA becomes more expensive. This is a gamble because all sales estimates are merely projections at this point. Any company buying ARNA would have to have firm belief that Belviq will be as good as we all think it will be.
2. Any potential acquirer will want to wait to see how initial sales of Belviq go prior to buying ARNA to make sure the drug will be a blockbuster, also making any potential acquisition much more expensive. This is the best scenario for all shareholders. We get to show the world we have a blockbuster pill and we get bought out at a market cap of $8-$12 BILLION dollars ($40-$60/share)
Either way, it is a gamble to buy ARNA before Belviq starts selling or waiting and finding out that Belviq is a multi billion dollar drug. It is a good position for ARNA shareholders to be in right now. We HAVE an APPROVED drug now, there is NO REASON TO SELL at this point.
Why can't Vivus be the next Regeneron? They will have 2 great drugs if Q gets approved. It would take some time to get it manufactured and marketed, but it would be a blockbuster company at that point...I don't agree that $40 is the top for Vivus
Low volume action...doesn't indicate much selling pressure, but sadly we gave up half the gains from yesterday....ugh...I know I know, we've rallied hard over the past 2 weeks....but I would have rather have been down by $0.02 today, not $0.06....sucks...maybe tomorrow will be better.
I cannot get over the volume lately. I was getting a little worried on the increasing PPS increase on lower volume, but today was a confirmation this party isn't over. 10% increase on over 4 mil shares traded....wow.
Hate to burst your bubble...but short interest is very low on this stock...only about 2 million shares short vs a float of 60 million+
On the plus side...this is very real buying interest...someone saw this was undervalued and jumped hard....tomorrow looks like another winner.
Really not bad considering
FRO is a completely different company in a completely different industry...please do not compare the 2