I think this NG Advantage news on press release last year. They are local company distributing CNG. Run by x state official . They have industrial customers looking for CNG, LNG to replace diesel.
Excellent post. Keep us updated on news please. Also if you live near, Concord, let us know here as soon as the station opens.
Interesting fact they state is that they fuel 1700 trucks per day. Not sure what the last corp. fact sheet said. I would have to assume that there are close to 4000 trucks on the road today (my guess), and they have around 45% market share. That is reassuring that they have significant market share in trucks.
Seeking Alpha will not be able to damage the price. By friday, it will be around 11. Watch earning estimates improving. Everything else is important but not a major factor. Two things that matter most, earnings estimates and new contract/station openings.
I agree. What the article ignores is the increase in sales of CNG, LNG and also shipments of LNG to Hawaii etc. The strategy is sound and america will be energy independent soon with or without federal subsidy.
There you r right. The biggest issue is bonuses based on volume of gge. Shareholders do not care about gge dispensed. They care about profits and EBITDA. The only reason EBITDA I like is that their ongoing cap ex for statins is like $3 million for 96 stations maintenance so repair cap ex is not big.
I think this business is about to take off not because of management but despite a grave error by management of building too early which cost them precious capital and interest. Hopefully, the flip side of things, they will get some major fleets as they are ready. Kroger is a big player. Checked their web site and it looks like 40 trucks is nothing for them and their capital budget is big. All the manipulators will be gone once the EBITDA break even is in sight. I think any investor between 15 and 20 price has major loss now but will profit either by stock and by buyout by major gas exploration company.
Earnings estimates are now being improved for future quarters. I think analyst are just waking up. Look for it to improve further in coming weeks. An announcement of new station/fleet contract would be a plus.
HAWAI'I GAS's LNG Strategy
Use LNG from the Continental United States to reduce Hawai'i's energy costs and reliance on foreign oil, while creating a foundation for Hawai'i's clean energy future.
Hopefully one of the board member here is a resident of Hawaii and can fill us in on more details.
Teach. Your comments are helpful because it keep one grounded. Don't know without you, I may have invested a lot more. It seems like with new engine, the catalyst is here and now. Also to your points on this board, I think if 250 of truckers are testing, they will not need those 50+ sales guys for long. I see Selling costs coming down in next few quarters. Anyway, expect to make money on this stock over 2014. They built without engine, they build in the wrong place, they have to take on debt. Now the game is reversing and getting similar to their refuse, transit. Let us see, one more quarter and we will know for sure but connecting the sales and gge dots.
Does any one have an idea of real life situation as to the cost of a CNG and LNG 12 liter engine? I read its between $20 to $40k which I am not sure about. Used to read the number like $60k a year back.
an unbiased real life example is when Westport new President got asked that question with reference to China, she said clearly for highway application with non urban setting, LNG is in demand and in urban setting , CNG is in demand, presumably due to distance and station count. This is an answer in conf. call and since its not from CLNE, I believe it more. Either way, look at it this way, if CNG is more, they have 80 stations out of 96 with CNG, and also they will not need those GE plants sooner. I think they are now trying to do what they did with refuse business. Build and maintain stations for truck and transit fleets. 250 fleets are testing it per Andrew, out of total of 1800 major fleets. That I think is NOT a SLOW adoption. You will see 10000 plus new trucks sold in 2015 ( a major plus for CLNE).
Their last qtr loss of $7 million EBITDA. They lost .04 in margin due to harsh winter NG pricing. On 60 million gallons, it is $2.4 million EBITDA. So net EBITDA would be $7.0-2.4= $4.6 million loss. 15 million gallons increase will,get them to EBITDA break even. That is 750 trucks, on annual basis or about 3000 trucks on quarterly basis. Give them six months to come close to EBITDA break even, along with some bus, transit, airport and refuse growth. They will hit it by end if this year or first Q 15. They will now not build any stations unless needed by customers, period. Of CNBC he said they have tied up 400 million gge of NG, and they use 60/qtr now so have surplus of 160 million gge before they need ge plants. So they will only announce GE plants one they can forecast EBITDA break even.
Absolutely right. That is why I think it will be in 1q15 for break even, but they have other business growing at 20% so if they get 1000 trucks per quarter, and their share is 50%. Plus they get Hawaii, Mansfield bulk supply and IMW growth etc, it's is now within reach to get beyond EBITDA break even.
Here is where you are off. The EBITDA loss is 7 million from 1Q 14. They need about 23 million GGE additional. It means 1150 trucks for CLNE not total. They will do that sometime this year or 1q 15. The stock is up also because they stopped a lot of cap ex . Only when station has customers, they will build. They will not build any without customers. Instead they are going after fuel delivery which could if successful, deliver break even on EBITDA earlier. They will be GAAP positive in 2015 for sure. Let us hope they get Hawaii order and in that case you will be on mark as far as timing.
Last three quarters they have made money. Business is suppose to be fixed monthly rental. There are no surprises as far as existing contracts and its revenue. The only thing I think of is penalty for early payment of $500 M notes.
Could not figure out how many ISX 12 G they sold? Any insight from their earnings call? I know they do not provide data 12 liter engine, but I thought there was some way by looking at onroad sales increase etc. Something about that in conf. call, but I did not follow.