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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

kiwimission 309 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 27 minutes ago Member since: Oct 25, 2001
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  • Reply to

    BUYOUT RUMORS ARE REAL

    by coolmarty Mar 27, 2015 8:58 AM
    kiwimission kiwimission 1 hour 27 minutes ago Flag

    Just a bunch of gibberish! Rumors by definition are not FACT. So how can the buyout be real?

    The famous line from Justified says it best; "watch out below." Monday could be a smooth five to ten point drop with a blink of the eye.

    Full disclosure; I've been long BMRN since 2011. However, I didn't go buy a new Ferrari over the weekend.

    One final point. When Cramer promotes a stock as he has with BMRN, buy Puts for protection. No place to go but down!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    AH REACTION SEEMS SUBDUED.

    by bills2noend Oct 23, 2014 5:26 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 23, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    You called it! It will be down big tomorrow morning in pre-market. A significant follow through will be evident when the market opens at 9:30 am. 99.9% of the scribes on this board were looking for the big lotto payoff; not so fast my friends. There's an old axiom on Wall Street. When "everybody" is in the boat on one side of trade, take the other side. From the famous line from Justified; "watch out below!" For all of you haters of rebeccaherbstinvestor_fan1, cut her some slack. She called it and you sheep who followed the rest of your cohorts, enjoy the slaughter tomorrow morning!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Anyone who thinks this should go up on news

    by in4thedeal Sep 12, 2014 7:52 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Sep 13, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    Means nothing; 342,283 shares traded after the halt was lifted. Friday afternoon at 5:35 pm. with 106.6M shares outstanding, not material. If you want to hypothesize the ultimate outcome of the approval yesterday, wait until Monday with a possible follow through on Tuesday. That would be a better baseline than getting over concerned about a dribble of shares traded on late Friday afternoon.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kiwimission kiwimission Jul 21, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    Jana Partnners has taken a large position essentially telling APA to sell-off more non-core assets and improve cash flow. This has all of the makings of a takeover or eventually putting the company up for sale. Activists normally don't go away taking a cup of coffee and donut.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looking Good.

    by jimkolak Jun 26, 2014 1:31 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Jun 28, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Be patience. This is a work-in-progress. The only thing that could derail the turnaround would be another economic tsunami, which I find unlikely. It's only a guess on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised if ERF morphs into a potential takeover candidate.

    Hold on; you'll won't be disappointed!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Bidding war

    by mak424 Jun 16, 2014 9:43 AM
    kiwimission kiwimission Jun 16, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Theoretically correct, one small problem; FIO has nothing special to warrant a higher price, otherwise the market place would have generated a higher bid initially. Since the deal is cash, you really have nothing to lose by waiting for a higher bid, but don't hold your breath waiting, you'll probably turn blue!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • kiwimission kiwimission Jun 4, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    Just another rumor! Not enough volume on the upside, and option activity in June and July is above the norm but nothing to suggest anything is imminent. If Mario Draghi doesn't satisfy the expectations in Europe tomorrow, watch for Europe and the US markets to sell off significantly, including BMRN. The last two day's gains could be gone in a flash!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    See you at $12 tomorrow

    by jeffreysauctions Jan 29, 2014 11:14 AM
    kiwimission kiwimission Feb 4, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    I guess you're right I don't know %@&$ about the buyout process. You mentioned Apple and Facebook as customers. How did that work out for FIO? One of the many reasons FIO has been a dumpster fire was the lack of a diverse customer base.

    You obviously haven't heard of a tender offer? Due a little research on the subject and look at examples of what happens after a tender offer is made. Moreover, the unintended consequences of the process.

    Final point. You throw the $30 figure around likes it's monopoly money. As you assert, I don't understand the buyout process, then I ask you Mr. Expert who's going to pay $30 a share today, tomorrow, next year for FIO? Nobody!

    Don't hold your breath waiting!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    See you at $12 tomorrow

    by jeffreysauctions Jan 29, 2014 11:14 AM
    kiwimission kiwimission Jan 31, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    STX's management isn't that dumb. They've had their chances when the stock was at $9, $10, $11, respectively. Furthermore, if FIO is so attractive, why hasn't EMC taken a run at the company? The answer is pretty simple; nobody wants this company at current valuations or it would have been long gone.

    One less than stellar earnings release doesn't make for a $20 buyout.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buyout is Eminent

    by jeepcreep111 Oct 30, 2013 11:15 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 31, 2013 6:32 AM Flag

    If you want to post and have credibility, be grammatically correct, notwithstanding your dollar buyout amount just shows how ignorant and stupid your are. Perhaps, instead of posting nothing but nonsense, you go back to school and get your GED?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kiwimission kiwimission Oct 24, 2013 10:27 AM Flag

    Based on what? Today's plunge was based on real data, a real earnings release not some conspiracy theory that the earnings were leaked.

    I don't agree with the over reaching Obama administration, but in this case they can't help you. You can't legislate against stupidity, ignorance or incompetence. Enough of wasteful government spending. The SEC won't wade into the dysfunctional company named Fusion-Io.

    Also, you have nothing to worry about even though your post suggests you belong in the above paragraph.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    IS IT TIME TO GET OUT?

    by bsplizz40 Oct 24, 2013 9:43 AM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 24, 2013 10:16 AM Flag

    All correct, but the buyout will disappoint the vast majority of the scribes on this board. Mid to high teens not $20's as most have opined. If a buyout doesn't surface in the near term, check back when the stock trades at $5 - $6.

    I don't believe today's activity is an overreaction. Wall Street punishes those who don't execute. Pretty simple! This is not a one-off happening. Funny how history repeats itself at FIO.

    Shane Robison isn't the answer!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kiwimission kiwimission Oct 23, 2013 6:47 PM Flag

    Where Barron's missed the boat; they didn't realize how inept the management team was at FIO. The first clue was Shane Robison, ex HPQ. That should tell you all you need to know. HPQ has never been the same after the resignation of Mark Hurd. Meg isn't the answer, either.

    It's hard to fault Barron's for all of FIO's issues when it appears their problems are all people related. You can't fix stupid!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • kiwimission kiwimission Oct 23, 2013 4:56 PM Flag

    Wrong; an idiot to the power of 10. Maybe a little bit stupid, as well?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is fio a buy before earnings?

    by fishaholic07 Oct 22, 2013 4:42 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 22, 2013 4:54 PM Flag

    "Company's earning record not impressive." Really? I must be following a different stock. FIO is a dumpster fire today.

    If you buy the stock before the announcement, buy puts for downside protection. Otherwise, keep your money in your pocket. You'll be glad you did, in most probability.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NEWS has me convinced

    by dhfexpress Oct 15, 2013 5:40 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 16, 2013 9:20 AM Flag

    I've never heard such demagoguery about a company with a $13 stock which has significantly under performed the market. Perhaps you should consider the pulpit!

    A flurry of press releases before the earning release on the 23rd; coincident or duplicitous, intellectually dishonest?

    We'll know in due course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    upcoming earnings

    by schrodingers_kitty Oct 13, 2013 1:52 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 14, 2013 3:22 PM Flag

    Hopefully something positive for a change. However it's hard to imagine, with a new management team, that the healing process has begun. Nothing wrong with being optimistic but FIO's track record certainly causes one to take pause.

    No pre-warning means squat to me. There's plenty of examples of road kill this year where company's didn't pre-warn and you know what hit the fan after the fact.

    Today, FIO has zero credibility with the marketplace. They don't need another hiccup!

    Cheers.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    call options of interest

    by dhfexpress Oct 11, 2013 9:37 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 13, 2013 6:19 AM Flag

    My only point about the call options in March is it may not be such a "huge" bet if the open interest of March, 2014 $18 calls are covered call. As I noted, the seller of a covered call only loses the opportunity to future gains if in March, 2014 the price of FIO stock exceeds $18. I believe there're contrarians who think like me that FIO won't be at $18 in March.

    Why do I believe FIO won't get to $18 by March? Very simply, FIO has been a rudderless ship for the last several years. Shane Robison is supposed to be the new "fresh" face to turn the FIO ship around. Moreover, as I also noted in my post "all smoke; no fire", FIO could have been taken over by a tender offer if somebody wanted to use that vehicle, whether friendly or hostile. Without regurgitating the whole of my earlier post, a tender offer is merely an inducement to sell. Given where FIO's share price has been languishing for the last year, a $23 or $24 tender offer for at 51% of the outstanding shares would probably generate a lot of interest, in my opinion. I just don't believe the marketplace believes FIO is worth the high 20's/low 30's now. Mr. Robison and his team need to execute a minimum of three quarters showing substantial growth at the top and bottom line before anybody is going to take notice.

    Full disclosure: I'm long the stock with 2015 call options at $5 and $8, respectively. So for some of the scribes on this board who may misinterpret my posts, I'm not shorting the stock nor do I want the price to go down. I just don't believe the FIO lottery winnings are imminent.

    However, I could get up tomorrow morning and find FIO has been sold for $28 a share. What do I know?

    Good luck.

    Cheers.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    call options of interest

    by dhfexpress Oct 11, 2013 9:37 PM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 12, 2013 2:12 PM Flag

    Just curious. Open interest of calls and puts also includes covered calls and puts. How do you know these weren't covered calls that were sold? I'd be curious how you know the composite of the open interest of 19,939 calls are not covered calls. Regardless of the composite, there will be covered calls within the population of the 19,939 calls, I can assure you.

    For those who "sold open" contracts, that's premium they put in their pockets today and only lose the opportunity to gain beyond $18 if the price goes through the strike price by improved operating results or a buyout.

    I think it's a pretty safe bet FIO won't be at $18 in March by its own inertia. I also doubt a buyout is imminent.

    If anybody knows the composite of the March 22, 2014 $18 calls open interest; I would be appreciative.

    Cheers!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    All Smoke; No Fire!

    by kiwimission Oct 11, 2013 6:30 AM
    kiwimission kiwimission Oct 11, 2013 6:53 PM Flag

    IMO, the current management team wouldn't be an impediment to purchasing FIO. I would replace them anyway in all probability. That wouldn't preclude a takeover, be my guess. I do agree that the co-founders held out for a "king's ransom" and then lost their way, thus setting the company up to fail to execute.

    Although many of the irrational scribes on this board think they're going to hit the lotto immediately, I tend to agree with you that it could be a long hard journey before anything materializes. My time horizon for FIO is at least two years out. Shane and his team have to put together at least three quarters of substantive improvement before anybody is going to take notice. In the meantime, up a dollar, down a dollar. It will definitely trade within a band.

    Your comment about STX is spot on. They know which way is up.

    If something fortuitous were to happen in the interim, I'll take it.

    Good luck and be patience!

    Sentiment: Hold

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