I guess you're right I don't know %@&$ about the buyout process. You mentioned Apple and Facebook as customers. How did that work out for FIO? One of the many reasons FIO has been a dumpster fire was the lack of a diverse customer base.
You obviously haven't heard of a tender offer? Due a little research on the subject and look at examples of what happens after a tender offer is made. Moreover, the unintended consequences of the process.
Final point. You throw the $30 figure around likes it's monopoly money. As you assert, I don't understand the buyout process, then I ask you Mr. Expert who's going to pay $30 a share today, tomorrow, next year for FIO? Nobody!
Don't hold your breath waiting!
STX's management isn't that dumb. They've had their chances when the stock was at $9, $10, $11, respectively. Furthermore, if FIO is so attractive, why hasn't EMC taken a run at the company? The answer is pretty simple; nobody wants this company at current valuations or it would have been long gone.
One less than stellar earnings release doesn't make for a $20 buyout.
If you want to post and have credibility, be grammatically correct, notwithstanding your dollar buyout amount just shows how ignorant and stupid your are. Perhaps, instead of posting nothing but nonsense, you go back to school and get your GED?
Based on what? Today's plunge was based on real data, a real earnings release not some conspiracy theory that the earnings were leaked.
I don't agree with the over reaching Obama administration, but in this case they can't help you. You can't legislate against stupidity, ignorance or incompetence. Enough of wasteful government spending. The SEC won't wade into the dysfunctional company named Fusion-Io.
Also, you have nothing to worry about even though your post suggests you belong in the above paragraph.
All correct, but the buyout will disappoint the vast majority of the scribes on this board. Mid to high teens not $20's as most have opined. If a buyout doesn't surface in the near term, check back when the stock trades at $5 - $6.
I don't believe today's activity is an overreaction. Wall Street punishes those who don't execute. Pretty simple! This is not a one-off happening. Funny how history repeats itself at FIO.
Shane Robison isn't the answer!
Where Barron's missed the boat; they didn't realize how inept the management team was at FIO. The first clue was Shane Robison, ex HPQ. That should tell you all you need to know. HPQ has never been the same after the resignation of Mark Hurd. Meg isn't the answer, either.
It's hard to fault Barron's for all of FIO's issues when it appears their problems are all people related. You can't fix stupid!
"Company's earning record not impressive." Really? I must be following a different stock. FIO is a dumpster fire today.
If you buy the stock before the announcement, buy puts for downside protection. Otherwise, keep your money in your pocket. You'll be glad you did, in most probability.
I've never heard such demagoguery about a company with a $13 stock which has significantly under performed the market. Perhaps you should consider the pulpit!
A flurry of press releases before the earning release on the 23rd; coincident or duplicitous, intellectually dishonest?
We'll know in due course.
Hopefully something positive for a change. However it's hard to imagine, with a new management team, that the healing process has begun. Nothing wrong with being optimistic but FIO's track record certainly causes one to take pause.
No pre-warning means squat to me. There's plenty of examples of road kill this year where company's didn't pre-warn and you know what hit the fan after the fact.
Today, FIO has zero credibility with the marketplace. They don't need another hiccup!
My only point about the call options in March is it may not be such a "huge" bet if the open interest of March, 2014 $18 calls are covered call. As I noted, the seller of a covered call only loses the opportunity to future gains if in March, 2014 the price of FIO stock exceeds $18. I believe there're contrarians who think like me that FIO won't be at $18 in March.
Why do I believe FIO won't get to $18 by March? Very simply, FIO has been a rudderless ship for the last several years. Shane Robison is supposed to be the new "fresh" face to turn the FIO ship around. Moreover, as I also noted in my post "all smoke; no fire", FIO could have been taken over by a tender offer if somebody wanted to use that vehicle, whether friendly or hostile. Without regurgitating the whole of my earlier post, a tender offer is merely an inducement to sell. Given where FIO's share price has been languishing for the last year, a $23 or $24 tender offer for at 51% of the outstanding shares would probably generate a lot of interest, in my opinion. I just don't believe the marketplace believes FIO is worth the high 20's/low 30's now. Mr. Robison and his team need to execute a minimum of three quarters showing substantial growth at the top and bottom line before anybody is going to take notice.
Full disclosure: I'm long the stock with 2015 call options at $5 and $8, respectively. So for some of the scribes on this board who may misinterpret my posts, I'm not shorting the stock nor do I want the price to go down. I just don't believe the FIO lottery winnings are imminent.
However, I could get up tomorrow morning and find FIO has been sold for $28 a share. What do I know?
Just curious. Open interest of calls and puts also includes covered calls and puts. How do you know these weren't covered calls that were sold? I'd be curious how you know the composite of the open interest of 19,939 calls are not covered calls. Regardless of the composite, there will be covered calls within the population of the 19,939 calls, I can assure you.
For those who "sold open" contracts, that's premium they put in their pockets today and only lose the opportunity to gain beyond $18 if the price goes through the strike price by improved operating results or a buyout.
I think it's a pretty safe bet FIO won't be at $18 in March by its own inertia. I also doubt a buyout is imminent.
If anybody knows the composite of the March 22, 2014 $18 calls open interest; I would be appreciative.
IMO, the current management team wouldn't be an impediment to purchasing FIO. I would replace them anyway in all probability. That wouldn't preclude a takeover, be my guess. I do agree that the co-founders held out for a "king's ransom" and then lost their way, thus setting the company up to fail to execute.
Although many of the irrational scribes on this board think they're going to hit the lotto immediately, I tend to agree with you that it could be a long hard journey before anything materializes. My time horizon for FIO is at least two years out. Shane and his team have to put together at least three quarters of substantive improvement before anybody is going to take notice. In the meantime, up a dollar, down a dollar. It will definitely trade within a band.
Your comment about STX is spot on. They know which way is up.
If something fortuitous were to happen in the interim, I'll take it.
Good luck and be patience!
If you believe all the noise about what a great takeout candidate FIO is today and you take the hypothesis that the current management team and board remain intransigent and don't want to sell, there is a very simple means to force the company to sell; tender offer. This also assumes the company is not currently negotiating the sale currently.
Let's assume all of the above is true. Company "A" makes a tender offer of FIO at $23 a share conditional on receiving at least 51% of the outstanding shares. It does a couple of things. It puts FIO on notice, and two, it sets the floor for additional negotiations with FIO. Given the closing price of yesterday, that represents a 70% premium. Given where the share price has been this past year, you have to assume there will be takers.
A tender offer is merely an inducement to sell and can be friendly or hostile. Regardless of the intent, in this example, Company "A" has to notify the SEC of their intentions; acquiring over 5% of FIO.
Accordingly, I believe all this run-up and run-down of the price has been perpetuated by individual(s) who bought at $11 and want to get out at $14, by example. You may have individual(s) who are "underwater" that have been perpetuators of the rumors/speculation as well.
If FIO has such value that it would be a great fit for STX or EMC, by example, it would have been done through friendly or hostile means by now. I happen to believe there're other issues that preclude an immediate takeover of FIO. I don't know what they are, but there is obviously some impediment(s) to a deal.
Everything is for sale including FIO. It's just determining the price!
As I posted earlier, I've seen this picture show before, not sure what re-run was the latest but must be at least the 5th or 6th.
My two cents.
How did that work out? Being a holder of both ONXX and BMRN shares, I do recall you were on the ONXX board making ridiculous and stupid predictions of the final buyout price. Again, how did that work out?