The same thing had occurred to me but I will be watching the rest of the housing sector closely for signs of more weakness. Leblon is certainly not indicative of what is happening in the rest of the country. My wife's family lives in Barra da Tijuca and they've seen similar increases which are simply untenable, particularly considering commute from BDJ to city center. I think Dilma's back is against the wall at this point (as is our own). They're combating inflation which signals an ever higher SELIC which can only put downward pressure on housing.
Overall I'm not terribly bullish on Brazil (nor am I bullish anyone else for that matter). I actually shorted VALE yesterday. Will likely close it out today but I don't see a whole lot of upside for the country at this point, particularly with China looking weaker and lying about it to boot. I'm long some SID which I didn't cut lose at first sign of weakness. I'll pay for that now. Lots of Brazilians ran up on speculation and don't have much support beneath them at this point. I'll eat at least a point on SID is my guess. Hopefully WC and Olympic spending can put a fire under some of the basic material plays but I'm thinking globally, we're about to take next leg down. TTYL....
Thanks bud - sums up my thoughts. Brazilian RE bubble always looming on the horizon but perhaps it can deflate rather than pop. Didn't see inflation numbers but I have to assume it was running near 6% or higher? That is possibly the only catch here. I've seen quite a few articles re: bad loans on the books of ITUB, BBD, etc. Wouldn't be bucking the global trend by any means so take that with grain of salt.
I've done pretty well lately with Brazil. Caught PBR, VALE, SID & GGB off lows and made some decent money but now I'd like to take another stab here. Anything in particular that gives you pause at these levels? Once I start, I'll average down to hell. Like to start right in here. Earnings looked like a beat but what's the situation like on the ground. Wife and I haven't been down for awhile now.