I have to ask, did you actually read the article? The conclusion - from December by the way - was that Valeant may have to change some of the non-GAAP disclosures for the sake of added clarity. Since that time financial statements have been released. This is another one of those headlines that means nothing.
This type of day-trading BS with analysts speculating from one topic to another will continue until there are a couple of quarters of earnings released and they meet the expectations set by management. The whole BK thing is a red-herring but it works now because there is nothing out there to refute it. The frustration here is just unbelievable. Their accounting systems have got to be such a complete mess that PwC is making them prove everything which is causing the perpetual delay. I am sticking but this is really, really painful.
As of 4:20 PST there are already five headlines about the default notice. I am still confident we can get to 10 even though there is no real value in this news. I am sure the folks in Ottawa are patting themselves on the back for their prompt and valuable response.
I just don't think this is short selling. I think it is just plain old selling in combination with short term buyers who set or follow stop losses. So many institutional buyers got out that there is an imbalance between the available shares and people you might consider to be investors that will hold through short-term noise. This cure to this is to get information out that provides an anchor. It won't be the Q1 earnings by themselves because those are already out there in broad strokes. It is there ability to project that will drive a stake in the ground. Stating in May that you know what earnings are through March and that this will be released before mid-June goes nowhere. When they say that they can range the full year results and then release Q2 and likely Q3 results that are consistent with those results, then the tide will change.
Another default notice which means nothing but which will drive another 10 articles discussing the history of the circumstances. Meanwhile, the only thing that management (or I should say PR) can say is that it doesn't accelerate the debt and that the financial statements will be filed by June 10th. I am really wondering if they see the crisis or are just focused on the headlamps on the front of the truck which is bearing down on them.
Sorry but this relies on the false premise that absence is evidence. Since we are using trains, you might reconsider using Thomas as your logic locomotive.
I don't see that sale happening. I can see them float 20% of B&L in an offering (or maybe sell 20% outright but I doubt they would want the minority haircut on the price) and then use the valuation as a means of supporting a larger valuation for VRX in total. The proceeds would of course have to go to the debt. The bonds are not the issue - the syndicated bank debt is the issue. If the US raises interest rates, their bonds will adjust accordingly and once they get the share price back up, there will likely be some sort of secondary offering to use to pay down the debt IF it proves necessary. The don't need $20B but they do need to bring the syndicated piece down. Ackman already hinted at this before.
This is exactly my point. You have no idea what the facts are at this point (you know what history says) but you make the statement with the conviction that how you say it must be true. The true facts are unknown as to the current operations and all that is out there are merely speculation. Without the facts, your statements take on the fiction of being "truth". Not a criticism of you but instead one of the organization for not providing enough true data to do away with speculation being confused with fact.
I continue to be perplexed as to allow another $500M to $1B of its market cap to disappear and not even try to stem the tide with information that would be useful to slow the pundits. This is reaching Barnum Bailey status!
The answer is painfully clear. This has become a day-traders / short-term traders stock and will remain so until there is a flow of relevant and timely information from management. There is nothing new to explain the combination of movements over the last couple of weeks. Even the news agencies have run out of "new" information to publish so they just repackage the old information under new headlines. Until the company makes them pay for the mistake by releasing contrary information, this will continue and likely accelerate. Bottom line - the company is continuing to screw the shareholders by not providing useful and relevant information to beat back the sharks. When they start doing this, the day-traders will go away and then it will start moving consistent with the economics, whatever those may be.
I'm holding so take my comments as observations. I won't be buying anymore until management begins showing some degree of ability to release relevant information on a timely basis. The silence just allows analysts like from WFB to speculate guesses that become fact.
To be clear, I am holding long but admittedly getting frustrated with the complete lack of information that comes from the company. The management group seems to have gone closed clam to the point that the troll pundits can say anything they like and there is nothing to refute it. It has now gotten to the point where the pundits will start pointing to management not refuting what is being said as proof that it is true. Not sure what Ackman was talking about in terms of repairing the company's reputation as they haven't done #$%$ yet.
They could hire Mark Pincus of Zynga fame (and of course son of one of the founders) to run it out of business!
I am sure that all of you have read the article related to Cramer's comments from yesterday - "Valeant's Accounting Practices Raise Uncertainty, Cramer Says". The key line from this article was "We've got to look at this Gaap-Non-Gaap issue," Cramer said. From today we have a couple of Cramer comments on Allergan - "Cramer: Allergan Looks Like a Growth Drug Company" and "Cramer Sees More Upside in Allergan". Here is the really funny part – this is the actual headline from the PR Newswire – “Allergan Reports Strong First Quarter 2016 Continuing Operations Performance with 48% Increase in Net Revenue to $3.8 Billion and 15% Growth in Non-GAAP Diluted EPS to $3.04”. Anyone else see the GAAP / Non-GAAP humor? By the way, they had a GAAP loss of 38 cents per share! Totally classic particularly since Cramer is now running around touting how Allergan should not be lumped in with Valeant. Obviously what is good for one headline is not necessarily good for another so those of you that are relying on Cramer for your enlightenment might want to buy a candle!