I'm hoping AIG is taking advantage of this in the pricing of the ILFC deal. This deal today should fetch a significantly higher price than 1 year ago.
Nope....this isn't some penny stock pump&dump.....read the company's financials, pay close attention to the huge year over year organic revenue growth. Thanks.
a huge international contract signed similar to the one we saw last year would be my guess...it seems like price spikes before news comes out on this stock, considering the 60% insider ownership.
At least 50 percent upside from here. Anyone else know a lot about the company that would care to discuss?
Don't sweat it....the stock is so thinly traded that any larger than normal buying and selling moves price dramatically. On average, the stock trades 30K shares a days. Thats the equivalent of just over $100K us dollars. Absolutely nothing in the realm of things. One $20K market sell order comes in and the stock will move lower simply because of the low float. 40 cent per share dividend coming really soon from EVI which is seeing revenues climb drastically year over year.. I am not worried about a thing.
This is a company with a book value of at least $62 per share, trading at $48.28. Folks, companies that trade this cheaply are usually in extremely bad shape, or have terrible business models. That is simply not the case with AIG. Anyone see the quarter over quarter increase in the Life Insurance segment? Up 30%+!!!! Yes, as a company, overall revenues have decreased a bit, but there are numerous companies dealing with slight drops in revenue, to me it will be rectified as the global economy continues to heal and companies begin to make more capital expenditures for property, plant and equipment. Also, remember last year we took the Hurricane Sandy hit during this quarter, by the looks of things this year, there will be no major hurricane even to depress earnings for this quarter.
So why the huge selloff...well in my opinion it was hedge fund driven....As soon as the CEO said that AIG will stop providing updates on goals, the hedge crowd all decided to go out of the exits at the same time. I don't neccessarily think this is a bad thing. Basically, Mr. Bemosche is not going to make promises to satisfy the hunger of Wall Street piranhas at the expense of AIG employees, the US taxpayer, and long-term shareholders. Anyone can hit goals by liquidating assets at any price attainable, slashing headcount, etc, but that is not the goal of AIG here. Believe me, fellow longs, one day this company will trade at least as book value. And also believe, that as soon as interest rates start rising, the cash is going to start pouring through the doors as the bond portfolio starts benefitting. Just my two cents.
Anyone remember this? Look it up if you don't believe me. Google dropped 7.5% in one trading session on what the "Street" considered to be poor earnings/guidance. The stock closed that day around $680 per share. Well fast forward 1 year and Google trades for $1027 per share. Those with the confidence in their assessment for the company's future have been handsomely rewarded.
I worked at AIG a couple of years ago. The Federal Reserve has 6 full time employees who work solely on monitoring AIG's books. Trust me, they are not under reserving.
also consider the lower interest rate enviroment...If AIG has $100 billion in bonds at 2.75% they are generating $2 billion less per year than if interest rates were at a more normalized 4.75%....this is huge....regardless though, I am not worried....We will look back on this stock sometime in the near future and say "AIG traded at 75% of book value! I should have bought much more." Unfortunately, buy that point the stock will be trading at 140% of book value or something similar. For those of you who believe that cannot happen, consider the fact that the stock traded at least 200% and at the most 500% of book value.
Couple of things: firstly, based upon the past 4 quarters earnings, the stock trades at 18x ttm earnings. If you back out the $3 billion dollar earnings hit we took on Hurricane Sandy, we would trading at 13.3x ttm earnings (based on adding $1 per share eps). Based on analysts estimates we are trading at 10.5x 2013 fiscal earnings. I personally wouldn't be shocked if AIG was earning $6 per share by the end of fiscal 2014 but thats just me.
Secondly, in terms of time horizons, you have to understand that this is a speculators market right now. Tesla is trading at 100x forward earnings, LinkedIn, Twitter IPO mania etc....its 1999 all over again on a slightly lower scale (35x S&P500 earnings in 99 vs 20x in 2013). If you look back then, many "old economy" businesses did very poorly and were stuck in the duldrums dor the entire bullrun....then that balloon popped on the high fliers and money poured into value stocks. Well this market reminds me alot of that one...
Last year during Hurricane Sandy we took at $3 billion dollar hit......well guess what folks, that is off the table now. Coupled with share buybacks that have been taking place we should be looking at very strong quarter. I'm going to guess at least $1.50 per share EPS. It will take many people by surprise.
What's wrong guys?
Anytime you see a stock explode to the upside on 10x the avg daily volume, you better be prepared. Obviously after a 94% gain in one day there is going to be some sellers coming into the market the following day but if you looked a FREE when it exploded on volume, there was some selling and it just kept rallying. Can you imagine how this thing will take off once the announcement is made that the mine deal has officially closed? Look at above that is all I can say. Management states that they believe Q$ eps will be positively impacted from the aquisition. We are the next 10 bagger folks.
in terms of EPS? Anyone have an idea?
happens all the time