More like $200 at this point..It's done it before. Corporate governance at CMG is abyssmal. Can't trust their numbers any more than those out of China. Approaching $600, this is now the single best short opportunity in the market; ahead of NFLX, TSLA, et al. Must give it some time for the inevitable crash though, as I've learned the hard way...
Thanks, confirmed my suspicions the #$%$ who run this outfit were using "new math". Frankly, $12 in 2014 earnings would be an upside surprise, as food cost increases coupled with the inability to raise their already exorbitant prices will derail the net profit. This uniquely awful pseudo-Mexican cafeteria with a painfully boring and bland menu has seen its top..Like Subway, there will be a major slowdown on expansion-if not an accelerations of store closings-at which point the emperor will be completely nude.
Welcome to greater fool theory in action. CMG is, arguably, the greatest example- in the last year-of what a combination of tv hucksters, institutional owners, and muttley phool/momo psychosis can achieve in, ultimately, screwing the average investor who succumbs to all the noise..Added 15 more OOM puts to portfolio today. Will be adding still more if price somehow goes higher.
They are the modern day "Subway"..Overly-aggressive growth strategy with very mediocre food..Cult-like following however and absurd level of institutional ownership keep this ship afloat-for now..Not too far out, this will go down just like the Titanic did..All bluff/bluster, no real substance..It's a restaurant company, pure and simple..Real world value, including projected (unrealistic) growth, is around $250/share today..Future value, if you want to project out a year or so, is arguably $325-350..Nice money to be made here for prudent bears.
$150 is a stretch, but real value of this "internet burrito" (love that moniker) play is around $275..That is assuming 2014 pans out as projected (it won't).. Long run, as with virtually all restaurant plays, this one fails in the end..My guess, they'll fabricate some bs earnings number (look at their corporate governance score-not a pretty picture) and play up the expansion, ignoring the failure to grow same store sales and rapidly escalating food costs..Model is very similar to Subway 30'ish years ago..Read it and weep.
This is, by far, the most overpriced restaurant stock out there. Yes, they do have a loyal-albeit very nutritional information challenged- customer base, but the quality:price ratio is beyond abyssmal..As with virtually all restaurants that are not locally owned/operated, they will collapse with the passing of time..The question is not if, but when..My guess is 2014 is not going to be the year of the high flier stocks.. I consider CMG to be in the top 10% of the great short candidates going forward..Load up on April 2014 puts..Somewhere around the $440 mark, and you should end up quite wealthy..Once the selling begins (98% institutional ownership per Morningstar), it will be an avalanche, driving price down 40-60% in a matter of weeks.