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Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Message Board

kmsmith08 3422 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 4:24 PM Member since: Jul 21, 2009
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  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Apr 11, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Capitalism gone amok. That is Wall Street. Hoping to see APC down to $91'ish by end of next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $585+ today

    by bg_rox2001 Apr 4, 2014 8:40 AM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Apr 4, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Holy trans-positional dyslexia, Batman! ($558)

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 by kmsmith08 Mar 27, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Ronald McDonald' are really impressed with the new breakfast fare at Taco Bell. Yet another coup by the competition...Better products at better prices with extended hours...Let the bloodbath continue. And those "lines" people keep talking about are rubbish. Listen to the Muttley Phools at your own peril.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Commodity prices are killing CMG

    by bidupbid Mar 6, 2014 12:04 AM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Mar 6, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    More like $200 at this point..It's done it before. Corporate governance at CMG is abyssmal. Can't trust their numbers any more than those out of China. Approaching $600, this is now the single best short opportunity in the market; ahead of NFLX, TSLA, et al. Must give it some time for the inevitable crash though, as I've learned the hard way...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    "Only" 34x forward earnings

    by thermo_bea Feb 4, 2014 7:17 PM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Feb 4, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    Thanks, confirmed my suspicions the #$%$ who run this outfit were using "new math". Frankly, $12 in 2014 earnings would be an upside surprise, as food cost increases coupled with the inability to raise their already exorbitant prices will derail the net profit. This uniquely awful pseudo-Mexican cafeteria with a painfully boring and bland menu has seen its top..Like Subway, there will be a major slowdown on expansion-if not an accelerations of store closings-at which point the emperor will be completely nude.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Jan 31, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Welcome to greater fool theory in action. CMG is, arguably, the greatest example- in the last year-of what a combination of tv hucksters, institutional owners, and muttley phool/momo psychosis can achieve in, ultimately, screwing the average investor who succumbs to all the noise..Added 15 more OOM puts to portfolio today. Will be adding still more if price somehow goes higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    new stores

    by thermo_bea Jan 31, 2014 11:50 AM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Jan 31, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    They are the modern day "Subway"..Overly-aggressive growth strategy with very mediocre food..Cult-like following however and absurd level of institutional ownership keep this ship afloat-for now..Not too far out, this will go down just like the Titanic did..All bluff/bluster, no real substance..It's a restaurant company, pure and simple..Real world value, including projected (unrealistic) growth, is around $250/share today..Future value, if you want to project out a year or so, is arguably $325-350..Nice money to be made here for prudent bears.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    expect under $150 share after 4Q

    by jimmmeycrackcorn Jan 24, 2014 9:19 AM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Jan 24, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    $150 is a stretch, but real value of this "internet burrito" (love that moniker) play is around $275..That is assuming 2014 pans out as projected (it won't).. Long run, as with virtually all restaurant plays, this one fails in the end..My guess, they'll fabricate some bs earnings number (look at their corporate governance score-not a pretty picture) and play up the expansion, ignoring the failure to grow same store sales and rapidly escalating food costs..Model is very similar to Subway 30'ish years ago..Read it and weep.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Dec 27, 2013 2:29 PM Flag

    This is, by far, the most overpriced restaurant stock out there. Yes, they do have a loyal-albeit very nutritional information challenged- customer base, but the quality:price ratio is beyond abyssmal..As with virtually all restaurants that are not locally owned/operated, they will collapse with the passing of time..The question is not if, but when..My guess is 2014 is not going to be the year of the high flier stocks.. I consider CMG to be in the top 10% of the great short candidates going forward..Load up on April 2014 puts..Somewhere around the $440 mark, and you should end up quite wealthy..Once the selling begins (98% institutional ownership per Morningstar), it will be an avalanche, driving price down 40-60% in a matter of weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Does not make any sense why this stock is down

    by todlondon Nov 6, 2013 4:19 PM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Nov 7, 2013 11:47 AM Flag

    Actually, this is one of the few positions I haven't lost my tail on over the last year. Been killed pretty much everywhere else, however, e.g. AMZN, NFLX, LNKD, et. al. Big bet now is against CMG, fyi. Quite surprised this didn't touch $55 today, though there's still time left...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Does not make any sense why this stock is down

    by todlondon Nov 6, 2013 4:19 PM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Nov 6, 2013 4:32 PM Flag

    Are you kidding me? Earnings for year are going to be around $1.30. Forward P/E in the 40's with lowered 2014 guidance. This is as bad as CMG with equally bad long term prospects. Even the hyperbolic Cramer got this one right a year or so ago. Based on pre-reverse split, WFM, on the high end, should be a $75 stock w/ $2.50 earnings, e.g. P/E of 25. It is far beyond that now as adjusted-even after the drop presently-is $118'ish w/ earnings of $2.60'ish. Very realistically, this could see the $40's by Nov option expiration.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Shorts Ready To Have Your Buttz Kicked?????

    by skiidady Oct 17, 2013 3:57 PM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 18, 2013 11:38 AM Flag

    Missed that call, er put, by a mile. Oh well, with what little money I have left, betting it all against AMZN, GOOG, and CMG. At the rate things are going, I'll be relying on social security exclusively for retirement. Oops, when they get done with the next set of budget negotiations, it will be decimated too. I'm making my reservation for a bridge to live under-gotta go...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 18, 2013 11:34 AM Flag

    My problem too. Bet way wrong the last 11 months. Now that there's virtually certain huge profits to be had on the short side, I could only afford a small piece of January puts. There are going to be millionaire's made off the short side of this hyper-parabolic absurdity. Strong sell cubed...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 17, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    Apparently they hired a Chinese accounting firm...Pretty negative guidance. Never mind the real world margins will continue to get hammered as both employee and food costs escalate. They'll be downsized/out of business within five years.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Shorts Ready To Have Your Buttz Kicked?????

    by skiidady Oct 17, 2013 3:57 PM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 17, 2013 4:17 PM Flag

    I hear illiteracy/ignorance. You'll see this below $410 by end of trading day tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Big earnings Miss? Down $100 like last year?

    by ex.goldbug Oct 15, 2013 3:30 PM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 17, 2013 3:17 PM Flag

    Not as much this year, but expecting a drop of at least 5-8% from today's high by sometime tomorrow. In the next six months will this see south of $300? Safe bet. Expectations for this overhyped, overpriced, blandly decorated, and yawningly basic menu establishment are hyperbolic. Along with NFLX, TSLA, and LNKD, someone is going to get very wealthy by timing their demise right. As usual, I was way too early, as I never believed the QE hype (error....).

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 17, 2013 2:44 PM Flag

    Exactly. Worse yet, the pessimists (aka realists) are not getting any airtime for the last few weeks. I am really starting to buy into some of the-what I once thought were wacko-conspiracy theories. Perhaps it's not so ironic that the only money I've made the last couple of weeks has been by moving in/out of short term GLD calls...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Got some more short at 432....

    by terpstrader Oct 9, 2013 9:41 AM
    kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Oct 10, 2013 10:38 PM Flag

    Probably not going below $275'ish, unless the market get a 2007/08 spanking again. I like the idea though-captures a couple earnings periods, going through winter, and gives people more time to realize what a boring, overpriced, and otherwise #$%$ establishment this "emperor w/ no clothes" organization really is.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • kmsmith08 by kmsmith08 Oct 10, 2013 1:40 PM Flag

    Should be a near clone of last year's debacle. Thanks to you longs, I picked up a 10/19 $435 strike put on the cheap. Expecting a 400-500% return within the next eight days. I'll take that.

  • kmsmith08 kmsmith08 Jun 27, 2013 9:26 AM Flag

    I live a life fraught with danger. Hoping SLW gets immunity due to long term contracts. Their real risk is failure/closure of the miners they're aligned with. Silver could well see single digits, however, at the rate things are going.

    Sentiment: Hold

DKS
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