I listened to it twice... CFO came across poorly... (i.e., unable to answer simple stuff). However, he did provide share & growth stats for "large group accounts" (72% share & +15% sequential growth).
This means "small independent" practices were down 69% sequentially (-$20MM). If sales can recover 50% of that loss ($10MM) during Q2 & group practices continue a 15% growth rate, Q2 will be ~$85MM. I hope they are able to find the sales talent necessary to execute.
However, management only projected mid-70's for Q2 sales. I hope they are sandbagging. Otherwise, they are not very good managers (i.e., they wouldn't last long in my cpg world).
Stoppy... if you run Q4_Q1 revenue numbers on any spreadsheet, you will see that key accounts (72 share) grew sales by 15% (therefore, small practice had to decline roughly 70% sequentially)... simple math. I also accept management's rationale as to why. I'm not happy about it... but I accept it.
If you listened to the conference call, management also said that April sales to that vertical were increasing (they didn't say by how much).
Following your logic, key accounts should grow another 15 percent & grow revenue faster than small accounts can lose it (@
Overall, I'm disappointed with the quality of today's conference call. Management was either unwilling or unable to explain the "simple stuff"... in any fashion. They "butchered" the COST OF GOODS question...
It was a simple question... bottom line, COGS as a "share of revenue" declined only 2% sequentially. I would be personally embarrassed with that "fluff" about absolute COGS... my kids can do better than that.
It "appears" that small account sales declined 68% from $39MM to $18MM (Q4 vs. Q1). That is ASSuming Group Accounts grew 15% sequentially & had a 72% share on $67MM for 13Q1 (per management's claim at today's conference call). Spreadsheet calcs did the rest to back into Q4 (using $82MM as the base).
Because my shares are made of "house money", I won't be cashing in soon... but will wait at least "one more quarter". They still have a "chance" to succeed before dilution becomes necessary. At current $67.6 MM in sales, it will take three quarters of 15% sequential growth (for both LARGE & SMALL accounts) to achieve $104MM by Q4.
IF... IF... IF... IF... they can restore small accounts back to $39MM run rates (a gamble), then it will be Q3 that they can hit $100MM. Therefore, if they want to avert dilution, they had better get off their #$%$ & start selling. I'm still watching this one. I think there is some easy money in it's future... nabobs aside...
That $85MM was due to a reversal of accrued discounts... due to a mix-shift caused by declining R&D & academic segments... otherwise, $82-ish (per the CC).
Johnson did confirm a bad January due to concerns over any impact of sequester on MediCare / MediAid reimbursement... "at least 1 MM decline"... Otherwise, there is no factual basis for the nabobs postings... like birds in the trees at dusk... just mindless chatter... building guana piles.
I have so many losers on Ignore that I must sign in before visiting to escape their slap-happy nonsense. Anyone projecting $60MM in revenues deserves an ultimate fool award. If they had something factual it would be different... but they don't.
Thanks... it never occurred to me to look. I just did (i.e.,, send the request in)... It will be interesting to see if Yahoo! even responds, much less wants to do something about these message board trolls.
Not enough volume for any accumulation to have an "effect"... assuming your IgnoredUser is a nabob...
Any "move" is meaningless on low volume... no one should ever waste time dwelling on churn. In seven days, we will get an update where "moves" could be more meaningful.
IF & WHEN, COGS goes from 70 to 30 percent, levered free cash flow (per Yahoo Finance) goes from negative $70MM to a positive $50MM (on current sales). That "number", for sure, is not reflected in current price. Nabobs don't get that... not do they want to. That's why they are on my Ignore User List...
All I know is that "current" annual sales velocity is $300MM (actually 320). If management's "goal" is to lower COGS from 70% to 30%, margins (on same sales) will become worth an incremental $120MM+. Anyone can grow a business with a base like that... even a field hand...
I am amazed at some of the fantastical notions of nabobs who, in order to get their "message" out (& to escape my Ignore User list), must resort to new ID's. I found four more in the last few days... proliferating like bugs... a total waste of energy.
It would be nice if Yahoo message boards offered reverse UserList maintenance options ("exclude all except" or "let me add") etc... filtering out any new posters into a list.
Based on the number of "ignored user" entries on my page, I am assuming he is still being a popinjay... I couldn't take it anymore... write something useful or #$%$... please.
Nabobs haven't addressed DNDN's most recent margin rate (36%) & what that means to GP$$ growth rates. If revenues come in at $80MM (vs. '12's $82MM), GP$$ still goes up (from $22MM to $29MM). If they can beat 36%, even better.
I'm ASSuming increased "group" sales, declining "academic"... net flat total revenue... but with much better margins vs. prior year.
This message board reminds me of birds in a tree at dusk chirping away nonsense... getting excited over the least noise. But when I sign on, the ignore list takes them all away. Some folks do amazing things with their time... full time nabobs...
Anyone trying to "interpret" anything at these low volumes deserves to be on ignore... & yet some will try. Like an animal spreading musk on tree trunks, some just can't resist.
What a crock (with respect)... assuming no change in expense structure (i.e., writeoffs), you would have to assume $60 million in revenues. If all they do is "average" performance (for 6 Q's), you will miss by 30% at least. The only downside is this week's expirey. Bottom line is that "nabobs" are still wishin' & hopin'... & shufflin' along...
I thought you were going to say... "played the fool"... more appropriate??? Although I got my $4.95 layer, I'm still waiting for $4.20-ish... you are not trying hard enough...