10 year bond yield's failure to rise isn't helping, also the MF article on BAC's continuing exposure to bad HELOC's from the financial crisis didn't help. It says there are billions in writeoffs over the next few years for BAC.
Last Friday, post Yellen was the only day of BAC over performance in terms of PPS. I am sure if I sold it would go way up. Obviously, someone doesn't like the prospects for the earnings announcement.
I would say the market listens to the Fed, but obeys the bond market. If the Fed raised, but the 10 year yield didn't budge, then BAC's NIM would be further compressed. The bond market will let the Fed know when to raise rates. BAC has now proven that they can make good profit with a zero Fed funds rate, but my concern is if the Fed goes to negative rates at some point.
I agree and hope you are right. We seem to have had several days of good support in this area which is very close to our August lows. I think the Moynihan vote will help going forward, too. That said, I really hope this board can get to being about BAC and cut out the political ramblings.
I am expecting a strong jobs number tomorrow based on August's U/C numbers which should cause 10 year yields to rip higher and VLY to follow plus the chart looks like its ready to go higher.
I hope you're correct, but today's PPS action for NAT was really awful. Equities are now on deflation's chopping block.
Not sure what happenned around 9am CDT when the dow was down about 800 and NAT was around 13.55 then in a matter of seconds NAT dropped to about 12.50 while the dow continued to march higher. There must have been a huge sale all at once, maybe a hedge fund dumped?
Bonfire of the currencies is not a two day thing, yes, there will be some backing and filling, but the underlying theme of global deflation and the Fed handcuffed to lower rates remains intact for the foresseable future.
SSRI does have better FCF per share than PAAS, but PAAS has the better balance sheet and much better revenue per share, so I think PAAS will benefit more from a meaningful rise in silver prices as well as the dividend and buyback ability.
You have been correct as to many of the recent "crises", but competitive devaluation is a much different situation than before. In my view, the Fed's lack of move has more to do with China's recent devaluation than anything. The recent decline of PM's was due to a view that the Fed would soon tighten, but recent slowdown in global growth has changed the dynamics.
No logical reason that I can see for PAAS underperforming SSRI so badly, so I will continue on with PAAS for awhile. SSRI has been a star on a relative basis for quite awhile even when silver was tanking badly.
I really think the Fed is in a box for awhile which should bode well for PM's, just wish PAAS would participate more fully. Dollar is getting hammered.
Yeah, I think that's it in a nutshell. I thought we would see more short covering going into the announcement, but its been just the opposite. Personally, I don't see how they could raise rates given overseas markets and commodity deflation.
It seems like we go down quicker and rise slower than other miners despite the stellar balance sheet. SSRI is about to overtake our PPS. Very frustrating. I hate picking the right sector, but getting the wrong stock.