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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

koolbrez22 94 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 7:16 AM Member since: Jan 21, 1999
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  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 27, 2015 7:16 AM Flag

    Which conditon could easily be accomplished by outlining the marketing strategy without giving away any advantages rather than shrouding it in the cone of silence. Given the lack of disclosure mr believer scenario is just as good as less positive ones and therein lies the reason for the $3 SP. The difference between setting a clear pathway and leaving it to speculation is just about $10. That difference is greatly more significant depending on how long it takes for the strategy to become visible. If it takes more than another 6 months MNKD will run out of money to run operation at current levels and by that time they will need to raise funds the old fashioned way: borrowing from Deerfield most likely as a PIPE which will transfer all value to Deerfield when realized thus leaving the current investor with precious little.

  • sM morfht ot
    taht ekThere is now a lot of circumstantial evidence that one of Kevin's many predictions is coming true (hey even a broken clock is right twice per day). As time goes by it is becoming more probable that the reason for the nonsensical delay to pay off the note and be done with it was to allow 4 extra months for BoA to cover the 9 million shorted shares that they borrowed from MNKD. By extending the conversion date for the creditors that refused to convert they essentially extended the time to cover by a month. Had the note been satisfied on 8/15/15 BoA would have only had until 9/15/15 to buy back and return the shares but by delaying closure to 9/15/15, the BoA delivery date got moved to 10/30. This extra month is most propitious for BoA since the extension covers the whole seasonally worst period for general market corrections to happen (August, September and October) Which is working wonderfully for BoA given the current turbulence. Without the extension BoA would have to cover while SP was hovering in the high $4 with very low trading volumes. Under those conditions and given the size of the lot to be covered (9 million shares) BoA would have incurred significant losses because of the mini squeeze that it would have created (we all can remember the run up from the mid $3s to the $7 level that happened recently when the same amount of covering occurred (from ~ 133 million share down to the ~ 120 million shares). Now after the long term investor spirit has been broken by the relentless SP drop to the mid $3s taking advantage of the recent market rout to manipulate the price down to discourage even the most determined long term shareholders, BoA will be able to cover at a profit.
    All anecdotal evidence of course but it all smells of collusion between MNKD and BoA to once again allow a big shorter (BoA) off the hook at the expenses of some disconcerted shareholders that are in that state due to market condition and the lack of news from MNKD.

  • Reply to

    Afrezza packet arrived in mail today

    by harris8109 Aug 25, 2015 5:43 PM
    koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 25, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    Hopefully we are rounding the corner without hitting thr curb and roll 3 times before we.stop.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 10:33 PM Flag

    In frustration you give AF way too much significance. If Afrezza eventually fails in the market it will be at the hands of our crack management team. Not SNY not anyone else as I feel that SNY do know what they are doing and if Afrezza fails is because that is their plan. All by his lonesome AF spewing vitriol only appears to have an impact because MNKD is already wounded. Without MNKD's help that boy could hardly find the cavity in his derriere with both hands.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    That is another smoke screen. After all we the shareholders paid that price not management. They still got their paychecks and free stock options. Litigation is always a risk for any company but fear of it is a poor excuse to hide behind and no real reason to stop inform shareholders about how their money is being used (besides paying salaries and stock options)

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    I think that they retired after FDA approval. Their work is done, for better but mostly worse (so far) they outsorced sales and marketing to SNY and could hardly care less if Afrezza prospers or dies on the vine.
    Not their problem.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 8:34 PM Flag

    Finally a true statement. The facts are that after 7 months the scripts are laughable and the excuses are way more than the scripts. I own 30K shares and thought all along that the reason for the low count was the lack of production capacity and to a lesser extent the minimal insurance coverage but after Q1 I started to have doubts about SNY's intentions. Surely this is a different insulin and requires different means to be properly administered but Tesla had an even more difficult task launching an electric car with no charging stations but still launched very successful. Where there is will there is way and at this stage I see no will on SNY's part and aloofness on MNKD's part. They got FDA approval at the third revision, they paid themselves kingly for that accomplishment and cashed their free options in a hurry and don't give a hoot about the shareholders who paid for their screw ups. Don't know how else sales are so poor after 7 months and they feel no urgency to inform shareholders about what the plan is or how it went wrong.

  • Reply to

    Sabotage

    by rumbleinstreet Aug 21, 2015 7:03 AM
    koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    If you are going back that far then our ancestors (yours and mine) the Romans were the nicest and friendliest invaders in all of history. First they raped the wemen then they killed the old and the weak children then they took the those still standing back for a slavery vacation back to home base. But all was not lost of course they were such good souls that they called it PAX ROMANA.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    Look at the volume. Any measurable covering will cause a painfull squeze even on a day like today.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 24, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    Guess it is the one that can't be seen

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 22, 2015 8:33 PM Flag

    If you are right it is all about derisking. Given that us MNKD shareholders have invested an order of magnitude more than SNY in Afrezza it feels as if our egregious management did precious little for the shareholders by signing this deal. Hard to see how we the shareholders could have gotten less by signing multiple deals with multiple regional pharmas. Had we gone that way we could have at least gotten a competition to promote Afrezza rather than selling the first born rights for a dish of lentils. And we paid Greenhill $ 13 million for this deal?
    Bugs bunny could have negotiated a better deal.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 22, 2015 8:20 PM Flag

    Just option expiration day unfortunately. MM more than likely were the buyers of last resort to protect the puts that they sold. Monday will be very telling. MNKD will live or die by the script numbers and SNY seems to feel no urgency. More worrisome than that is that MNKD management seems to be aloof and not concerned one iota about the regular folks that paid their salaries and for their very generous stock options over the past several years. Whwn a fish stinks it starts from the head and this management should be decapitated.

  • Reply to

    A frank discussion

    by vcppaddler Aug 22, 2015 7:45 AM
    koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 22, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    I still can't see how Afrezza does not succede given what I think are irrefutable advantages such as no needle, discreteness of use, rapid onset and exit, less hypos and big reduction in glycated hemoglobin (A1C). However memories of how betamax failed due to poor marketing and how Windows achieved world dominance in spite of it being an inferior product because of aggressive and efficatious promotion are always in the back of my mind. Originally I saw the SNY deal as a great deal but now that scripts have stalled I'm having serious doubts about SNY's intentions. The silence from MNKD does not help perception and this latest notes restructuring abortion raises questions on management's competence and these are the same people that did the deal with SNY. Given management's behavior and lack of clear communication with the investment community to share details of the strategy, if they have one, it appears that they have no regards for public shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Here Is One Long That Is Holding Fast

    by centralcoastinvestor Aug 20, 2015 11:25 AM
    koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 21, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Holding tight as well. Not adding because at 30K I'm already maxed out.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 21, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    You are that wich you wrote. I bet money against doughnuts holes that you could not say that to me in person although I would not mind if that was to happen.
    Don't feel too sure about being anonymous while hiding behind a key board.

  • Reply to

    UBS take

    by atpl1959 Aug 18, 2015 8:56 AM
    koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 18, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    Guess we now know at least one of the shorters. They got their head handed to them at least once before and the recdivists will have it happen agai. Look at the volume and you know that no too many are taking the bait. The SP drop is just HFT algos that they use to manipulate SP. BB put them on their place a few times prior but I'm hoping that they won't this time.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 17, 2015 8:02 PM Flag

    At this juncture it would be a Kamikaze assault. Stranger things have happened but I'd be surprised if it were to happen and POd because I have no investable cash to take advantage of it. We are probably on the cusp of hearing something good on CD33 in Q4 (I would not be surprised by an early approval given the unmet medical need there) to be followed by updates on the ECHELON trials in early to mid 2016.

  • Reply to

    Refill Rate

    by irashorr Aug 16, 2015 5:29 PM
    koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 16, 2015 9:40 PM Flag

    Not to worry unless it persists for several weeks ( say 4 to 5). Also the numbers are too small to be reliably predictive. So far though the refill rate has been telling a good story while the NRX has been sucking wind.
    SNY is sandbagging.

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Aug 16, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    Surely hope that SNY gets updated right up the wazu. Basturds

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