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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. (SNTA) Message Board

kot882001 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 1, 2014 3:21 PM Member since: Sep 26, 2010
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  • kot882001 kot882001 Nov 1, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    I can also speculate that if it were some bad news, AM would try in person sugar coating it....

  • Reply to

    MARK MY WORDS ON SNO results for RINDO

    by werr999 Oct 31, 2014 11:00 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Nov 1, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    While I'm less sure that management will try to get FDA approval for Avastin refractory patients simply because AM usually takes more secured even more lenghty path to approval, I also think that Rindo will show statistically significant improvement in PFS, but while it will be improvement in OS, it probably won't be statistical one.
    I also think that even if we see somewhat positive results the s/p will go down up to 15%, but will recover by quarterly CC or SNO.
    Of course if we see OS & PFS statistically significant we'll see $20+ or even $30+.
    I'm leaving today for Maynmar, no internet most of the time, come back on 11/20 and will see what actually happened.
    I also don't believe that we'll see $9. The worst case scenario is $13. (This believe based on fact this forum is more fit to report at least somewhat positive developments and not outright failure.
    It is also possible that while patients were relapsed & refractory Avastin, the combination with Rindo very well could produce better effect then each one of them separately....)

  • Reply to

    $18 by lunch time

    by gbturner79 Oct 31, 2014 10:27 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 31, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Only if you're short term trader it is important. The more important what we'll see on Monday and later...

  • Reply to

    How revelatory will the SNO abstracts be?

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 31, 2014 9:51 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 31, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Whip, from what I learned with ARWR the abstract will provide full details with numbers.
    And, I expect "sell on the news" reaction from all short-term traders. However, it is possible that before the presentation day, CLDX will have quarterly CC where more positive light will be put on the numbers (in case they're "mixed bag").
    My understanding that we're dealing here with population that in worse condition than p3, so it is very well possible we'll get worse outcome for them then in p2.
    It does not change my long term outlook and expectations ($45-$65 in 1-1.5 year)

  • Reply to

    How revelatory will the SNO abstracts be?

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 31, 2014 9:51 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 31, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Whip, CLDX needs to report RR for at least 5 people and OS for about the same. If we get better results (or worse) s/p will react accordingly.
    If you want to get an idea of abstract importance look at ARWR recently....

  • Reply to

    From the 2Q results CC re: ReACT

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 26, 2014 6:13 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 28, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    seems that run to 18+ has started....

  • Reply to

    From the 2Q results CC re: ReACT

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 26, 2014 6:13 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 27, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    Don, yes, I think so, but mostly hope for some updates on Glemba & Varli- which seems to affect p/s more.

  • Reply to

    From the 2Q results CC re: ReACT

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 26, 2014 6:13 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 27, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Bingoo, what was CLDX market value 10 years ago? what was your target sale price? What binary event you targeted as decision point?
    We've advanced in 10 years, maybe not that fast as you and me (and a lot of others) hoped for, but still...now, we have clear time table to actual results and, therefore, to serious price appreciation. There is no point in looking on day to day price changes- why we went to 12 and back to 18 and back to 12? Our reward will come when Rindo approved, Glemba approved and Varli reports very good results. Until then s/p totally depend on anectodic updates and investor's mood swing...

  • Reply to

    From the 2Q results CC re: ReACT

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 26, 2014 6:13 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 27, 2014 12:08 AM Flag

    Zorb, if initial response rate of 15% is touted as "good result" then there is no reason to believe we'll see "bad results" now. OS is totally different animal and I expect them to report positive OS results, but, probably not statistically significant (this is conservative approach; I've no clue what actually will be reported, of course). What will happen to p/s in this case?
    IMO it depends on price action going into 11/3: if we see $18+, then "sell on the news" mentality will bring it back to $13-$14 TEMPORARILY.
    BUT: somewhere between 11/3 & 11/114 CLDX will report quarterly results and this will serve as opportunity for AM to calm down naysayers and, hopefully, report some progress in Varli (where the real money is) and Glemba.
    I realize the difficulty in making decision for the short-term traders, but here we're talking about fundamentally sound bio with potential to be $45-$65 stock in 2 years. Also the lower the current expectations are the better chances to see $30+ in 2-3 weeks.
    So, in short, I think investment in CLDX requires time commitment of at least 1+ year,- if for example you're starting business, you'd not expect it to make money immediately, but rather give it a chance to "mature" (get recognition from customers, referrals, etc). The same here-patience required!

  • Reply to

    From the 2Q results CC re: ReACT

    by whippersnapper65 Oct 26, 2014 6:13 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Oct 26, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    Whip, " if we were to meet this significance -- we would have to see a fairly significant difference"-
    My take: AM basically hints that we should not expect too much (i.e. statistical significance) from that particular group in OS, but rather respectful response rate. So the news are going to be mixed bag with, hopefully, positive spin put on it in presentation.
    However, in general until now it was no single scientific failure so far and while results never were too spectacular, they still were very solid and there is no reason to believe that p3 in Rindo will be any different.
    So, p/s can move 10%-25% in any direction after abstract publication (or presentation), but in the long run I do believe we'll get positive results from interium analysis of Rindo and, high probability of approval.
    The real money though, are in Glemba, and the moment we'll get some positive updates here the move similar to Puma is in card. I'm holding very large position in CLDX and while current p/s is disappointing, the long term picture is much brighter....even if current abstract come short of satisfying short-term traders.

    Sentiment: Buy

SNTA
3.13+0.03(+0.97%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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