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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

kot882001 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2015 3:54 PM Member since: Sep 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Timeline and what is CLDX worth?

    by kot882001 Jun 27, 2015 2:16 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    bump

  • Reply to

    ! Strong Buy Rec. By Roth, OpCo, Cowen !

    by swissmilkcow Jun 30, 2015 10:50 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    The reason for not having any partnership (besides Varli) is that
    Rindo & Glemba are relatively "small potatos" for large bio and not necessary bad thing about product by it-self. However, you can bet that the moment Varli shows wide range of possible applications, CLDX will partner it or, rather, will be bought out.

  • Reply to

    ! Strong Buy Rec. By Roth, OpCo, Cowen !

    by swissmilkcow Jun 30, 2015 10:50 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    So, if I understood you correctly, you're going to hold short position in CLDX thru binary event? Well, we all would be glad you do!
    (And regarding JUNO- dig dipper- the OS & PPS and side effects are not that good. No position, btw, this was just an example)

  • Reply to

    3 month chart

    by dorriswelch Jun 30, 2015 10:39 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    Dorris, are you saying that all bios created equal?

  • Reply to

    3 month chart

    by dorriswelch Jun 30, 2015 10:39 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    Bios, I'm trying to understand the logic of shorting CLDX. Maybe I'll learn something new...
    Maybe he will....

  • Reply to

    3 month chart

    by dorriswelch Jun 30, 2015 10:39 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    Dorris, I'm really curious, what is your trading strategy for CLDX? At what point you're going to close position andwhat is your stop-loss?

  • Reply to

    Did I hear that correctly?

    by raysfrom98 Jun 30, 2015 12:38 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    It will be even worse if Hillary gets there

  • Reply to

    Did I hear that correctly?

    by raysfrom98 Jun 30, 2015 12:38 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    These mutual SS agreements are very common

  • Reply to

    ! Strong Buy Rec. By Roth, OpCo, Cowen !

    by swissmilkcow Jun 30, 2015 10:50 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 30, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Dorris, would you please share with us your exit strategy with CLDX? What is your stop-loss (if you have one) point and how much you're going to lose if CLDX indeed hits $45 in 6 months?
    I also would like to know why have you decided to short CLDX? There are a lot of more controversial bios (JUNO for example) that shorting them is-"high risk-high reward" strategy, but CLDX?

  • Reply to

    Timeline and what is CLDX worth?

    by kot882001 Jun 27, 2015 2:16 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 29, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    There is no "pumping" here, just mere speculation to what will happen in the conservative/best case scenario.
    So far CLDX did not have single trial failure so there is a reason to believe that current trials won't fail. You, of course is entitle to your own opinions...And, while my expectations of success of IMCL, MLNM, MEDX, OSIP, MACK, ONXX and few others made me a lot of money I was wrong in case of SVNT & AMRN (so far). So, I bet on fundamentals, i.e science and you - on trading algorithm only. So, I've about 37 years of trading experience (including few years as day trader) and I can safely predict- you're not going to make money shorting CLDX in long term.

  • Reply to

    Timeline and what is CLDX worth?

    by kot882001 Jun 27, 2015 2:16 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 29, 2015 7:19 PM Flag

    MBB, OS benefit was statistically significant and, taking into account the absence of serious side effects, it is sure bet that it will be approved.
    If nothing happens in July, then it will be CC in the August, so we'll have chance to learn about new developments.
    What is more interesting is how high are the chances that second interim analysis (75% events) will produce statistically significant results so the trial will be stopped for effacy?
    AM has said that first one- don't expect it, but he did not mention anything about second one....

  • Reply to

    Timeline and what is CLDX worth?

    by kot882001 Jun 27, 2015 2:16 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Jun 29, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    MBB, they clearly can submit NDA for ReAct, not newly diagnosted and my understanding they're planning to do so. While the target population won't be large, but approval will add legitimacy to CLDX platform, enable off-label use and propel s/p to new highs.

  • As all of you know, recently, watching CLDX trading it is like watching grass grows...However, good things on horizon, and looking at thee big picture, IMO, the following should happen:
    1. FDA ok to submit NDA - 1 month.
    2. NDA submission (for refractory)- 2 months.
    3. Approval - 4 months (i.e. beginning of 2016). At this point I expect CLDX trading at $45.
    (I do not mention here possibility of p3 interim results, since AM said it is very unlikely that they will be so good that trial will be stopped. So, if it does happen it will be pleasant surprise)
    Now, in long run lets see what CLDX worth. Bio's valuation usually is not based on P/E and I don't like "discounted future value" models,- no, I usually use much simplistic approach- 3 times peak sales.
    So, two leading candidates should produce peak sales about 1.5B, so just them will justify $45-$50.
    Now, we have Varli, that true potential (sales) is really unknown....But ,if we assume another 2B, we can expect CLDX to trade at $100-$110 in the next 4-5 years, if not bought out before. So, maybe this seems like long time to wait, but 4 years ago CLDX was trading at $3-$6? So, patient investors who waited, quadrupled their money. And, IMO, there are good chances it will happen again!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy