Whip, it was wonderful answer, the only problem I'm having with it, that all your numbers you're quoting are from the people trying Rindo as 3+ line of therapy not the first one, as in current trial...
1.I'm sure Tom Davis is aware about enrollment timing and still he him-self mentioned "slower death rate", saying they're investigating it.
2. 50% of death is about 350- not much difference with 374.
However, I was under impression that patients randomized 2:1 - (I probably mixed it with CDX-110 trial). In that case reaching 350 death requires basically just most of control group death.
Still, since the trial conducted as first line on patients with stronger immune system, isn't historically expected OS for control group is higher than a year 1? (From IMUC trial I vague remember that in their control group 60% were still alive after 12 months. I could be wrong...)
1.Since we all expect Rindo to work, then this could only mean that control group living longer, and, while as a person, I don't wish on anyone to die faster, as investor it makes me worried - it will be harder for Rindo to prove statistically significant advantage in OS for Rindo
2. In CC it was said that 374 events (i.e. death) "expect to occur in H12015". Since the trial has only 233 patients in control arm, we can get these 374 "events" only if most of them die AND about 1/3 of Rindo patients die too. BUT, if rindo really work as in pII, then its patients supposed to survive longer!
In short, it seems to me that we're not going to have these 374 events in the 1H15, but rather later and this is rather good thing!
I'd like to hear any opinions or any other possible explanations, if anyone things I'm missing something....
Lv, could it be that events happening at slower rate because placebo arm lives longer?
And regarding groups 1 & 2C, in my view they did not sound that optimistic...
Cramer might affect s/p short term. No question. However, at the long run the fundamentals always win! And eventual approval will bring s/p $40-$50. So, the patience pays!
I do not expect CLDX to sign new closed end partnership with BP, because usually in this sort of deals, small bio get:
1. Upfront payment;
2. All development expenses paid by BP
3. All marketing paid by BP
4. ....But...only about 15% royalties on future sales
This type of deal is good for company with market cap of up to $100-$150m- it allows it to establish name for it -self and make it possible to concentrate on science and not on finance. However, if success achieved - not much in terms of money coming its way. On the other side, BP interested only in potential blockbuster drugs, i.e .with expected sales $3B+ (BTW, this is the reason why PFE went out of deal with CLDX)
CLDX size company with money from the recent secondary does not need this type of deal. It still might sign some collaboration agreement similar with BMY (and this type of agreement frequently lead to buy-out. For example GSK bought out HGSI when the split was 50-50), but thiss type of partnership does not affect share price much.
So, for now, everybody unhappy about s/p (including me) need to sit on his hands, patiently waiting for trial results, FDA submissions etc. One must realize that if CLDX would be trading in $20's and expected unloading of shares happens at $45-$50, it still would not make any difference, just moral satisfaction that "we are closer to the target price" but not more than that.
Of course if you're trading in and out of position it is different, but for long term investors it would be the same.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Dorris, at $40-$50 CLDX valuation will be 3.6B-4.5B which in my view for company with approved pick sales products in 1.5B area is fair. Theoretically speaking if Varli shows great-great potential (lets say 3b sales), then we can talk about CLDX selling higher than $40-$50. But this is matter of more than 2 years....
Mybest, the fact that the price now is much lower than year before is just a temporary lag between fundamentals & the s/p.
And when grey saying that we're in much better position now it means our fundamental are much better and we're closer to approval than before. And price always follow fundamentals!
So, this is a matter of time when we see valuation of 4-5B and Id bee much more worried (and probably out of position) if we'd be trading at 30+ but got bad trial results!
Gofo, I don't think we're going to get anything really important (for example trial results are important)....Just general update about enrollment, self-promoting rah-rah and how great we are. The real results will come in November, then I expect substantial price increase, may be like last year to $31.
Mja, mid 40's would be 4B valuation...At this point it would be really good. (And, BWT, PBYI went to 240 at one point- i.e. 300%. Similar move would bring CLDX to $52. If that happens -I'm selling)
Weight, first we went up from 24 to 38 in 3 weeks without any reason and then back to 24. From 24 to 13 we went together with the sector. The short term trading in bios is unpredictable and not based upon any fundamentals. this why we might see PBYI like action if we get real good trial results.
Whip, most bios( icluding CLDX) trading on binary event s(PBYI & ICPT just recent examples). However coming cc is not of them and there is no reason to expect serious price movements as a result of it. IMO, CLDX decided that PR is very important and decided to conduct cc every quater (unlike before). however,
1. We'll get more substantial binary event when we get trial results update in November;
2. It is important to keep in mind the perspective- with, eventually, CDX-110 & 011 approved we should move to $50 range - not even counting Varli;
3. So far trial results were solid, but not spectacular and if this won't change we probably not going to see $50 before approval
While I my-self not particulary happy with the current price (range $12-$18), but the knowledge that there is a rainbow around the corner and we'll see it probably in 2 years makes me feel better. Also, I'm sure we're going to visit $25 this year again- usually the price of the secondary re-appear in 6-10 months after it.
4. The fun will start when we get some surprising updates regarding Varli (Rinod & Glemba is "bread & butter" of future price appreciation)- in this case we're going repeat PBYI results....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'd suggest you read my post from a week ago "what is CLDX worth". Basically, I think CLDX will be worth about $45-$50 in 2 years, not even taking into account varli, just based upon peak sales of Rindo & glemba around 1-1.5B. To realize full varli potential will, probably, takes more than 2 years, so, you say that CLDX will worth $80-$90 in 4 years, if not bought out before by BMY for $55-$60....
On the other hand it is very possible that s/p won't shoot directly to the Moon, starting tomorrow, but will fluctuate and shorts will be able to squeeze few percentages IF closing position on time....Or maybe not...
I'd rather hold it for 200%+ gains in 2 years....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well, I guess the strategic idea was also to get enough money to last thru approval when, presumably, it will be easier to get some funds.
However, what is unclear, (assuming large potential of Varli) why are BP does not lien up to participate in trials? And BMY would be first candidate, IMO...
This was my sentiment exactly, but I was taken aback by remarks about difficulties to agree on partnerships. With all that clear, scientifically speaking, potential I'd expect it to be peace of cake.
I also under impression that "Big Boys" are ready to pay more but for approved products. Therefore, no takeover until 2016.
Well, it looks that 2106 will be the year of most results....Also I certainly hope that ASCO presentation will show clear and very positive results about Varli. They did not use worlds like "we're very exited" etc, so, my take is that results (after all it is just phase 1) expected to be solid with clear potential (they're starting p2 and p1/p2 with Varli), but, frankly, I did not hear anything that will affect s/p dramatically in near future.
On the plus note: I expect s/p to hit $45-$50 in 2016 (200%+ in 2 years in my view is not too bad...)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Long, (and this is just an observation), if before CLDX management took position saying, "we'll keep low profile, our results will speak for themselves", a few weeks ago this mantra has changed totally- new PR person is hired, AM, seeking publicity whenever it is possible, and it looks like they're seriously concerned with s/p and trying to lift it closer to the secondary price ($24.5). This all seems to be steps into the right direction, but, so far, they're not working...
My only hope that at ASCO (or ASH, or SNO) they will be able to put good spin on the current results...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Like2, CLDX going to provide some update at ASCO & also in November. Hopefully they'll report positive and upbeat results so I think $30+ this year is not out of the question....I also think the strongest catalyst will be reporting interim results on CDX-110 & 011.
In order for CLDX being worth $100 (8.6B) the expected peak sales need to be much higher than expected. The rest of pipeline is in very early stages and nobody will pay today for the sales in 5+ years. I also think that 5B($60) is fair valuation for CLDX in 2 years, and while some speculative boom that brought from 24 to 39 in 3 weeks can drive CLDX that high earlier it would not be justified valuation and won't hold for long. In short term I'd be happy to see it back to $25....
With all that recent correction, stabilization, etc. I think it is helpful to keep long term prospective about CLDX fundamental value. My method is very simple,- I use 2.5-3.5 peak (expected) sales of only CDX-110 & CDX-011. I'd assume that that peak is (conservatively speaking) is 1B-1.5B which bring CLDX valuation to 3B-5.25B,i.e $35-$61. And this even without taking into account the whole "long bench" of other candidates and/or potential value in buyout,- which could be significantly higher. So, should one invest in the $15 stock with potential to make (on average) 200% in 2 years? (This was rethorical question...)
True, the drugs are not approved yet. But, taking into account that it was no single trial failure so far, who, with the hand on the heart, can say that he does not believe in imminent approval? So, basically, I put my full trust in CLDX and, in the worlds of LONG-V "pounding on the table"- CLDX is the way to invest! (And, keep in mind, ICPT can repeat itself here!)
Sentiment: Strong Buy