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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

kot882001 8 posts  |  Last Activity: May 14, 2014 5:24 PM Member since: Sep 26, 2010
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  • kot882001 by kot882001 Apr 30, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    With all that recent correction, stabilization, etc. I think it is helpful to keep long term prospective about CLDX fundamental value. My method is very simple,- I use 2.5-3.5 peak (expected) sales of only CDX-110 & CDX-011. I'd assume that that peak is (conservatively speaking) is 1B-1.5B which bring CLDX valuation to 3B-5.25B,i.e $35-$61. And this even without taking into account the whole "long bench" of other candidates and/or potential value in buyout,- which could be significantly higher. So, should one invest in the $15 stock with potential to make (on average) 200% in 2 years? (This was rethorical question...)
    True, the drugs are not approved yet. But, taking into account that it was no single trial failure so far, who, with the hand on the heart, can say that he does not believe in imminent approval? So, basically, I put my full trust in CLDX and, in the worlds of LONG-V "pounding on the table"- CLDX is the way to invest! (And, keep in mind, ICPT can repeat itself here!)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is CLDX wothr?

    by kot882001 Apr 30, 2014 6:30 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 1, 2014 1:58 AM Flag

    In order for CLDX being worth $100 (8.6B) the expected peak sales need to be much higher than expected. The rest of pipeline is in very early stages and nobody will pay today for the sales in 5+ years. I also think that 5B($60) is fair valuation for CLDX in 2 years, and while some speculative boom that brought from 24 to 39 in 3 weeks can drive CLDX that high earlier it would not be justified valuation and won't hold for long. In short term I'd be happy to see it back to $25....

  • Reply to

    What is CLDX wothr?

    by kot882001 Apr 30, 2014 6:30 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 1, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Like2, CLDX going to provide some update at ASCO & also in November. Hopefully they'll report positive and upbeat results so I think $30+ this year is not out of the question....I also think the strongest catalyst will be reporting interim results on CDX-110 & 011.

  • Reply to

    CLDX presentation at Deutsche Bank conference

    by long_vrts2 May 8, 2014 1:16 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 8, 2014 3:21 AM Flag

    Long, (and this is just an observation), if before CLDX management took position saying, "we'll keep low profile, our results will speak for themselves", a few weeks ago this mantra has changed totally- new PR person is hired, AM, seeking publicity whenever it is possible, and it looks like they're seriously concerned with s/p and trying to lift it closer to the secondary price ($24.5). This all seems to be steps into the right direction, but, so far, they're not working...
    My only hope that at ASCO (or ASH, or SNO) they will be able to put good spin on the current results...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLDX' Deutsche Bank Transcript

    by goforitmedx May 11, 2014 12:15 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 11, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Well, it looks that 2106 will be the year of most results....Also I certainly hope that ASCO presentation will show clear and very positive results about Varli. They did not use worlds like "we're very exited" etc, so, my take is that results (after all it is just phase 1) expected to be solid with clear potential (they're starting p2 and p1/p2 with Varli), but, frankly, I did not hear anything that will affect s/p dramatically in near future.
    On the plus note: I expect s/p to hit $45-$50 in 2016 (200%+ in 2 years in my view is not too bad...)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLDX' Deutsche Bank Transcript

    by goforitmedx May 11, 2014 12:15 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 11, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    This was my sentiment exactly, but I was taken aback by remarks about difficulties to agree on partnerships. With all that clear, scientifically speaking, potential I'd expect it to be peace of cake.
    I also under impression that "Big Boys" are ready to pay more but for approved products. Therefore, no takeover until 2016.

  • Reply to

    CLDX' Deutsche Bank Transcript

    by goforitmedx May 11, 2014 12:15 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 11, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    Well, I guess the strategic idea was also to get enough money to last thru approval when, presumably, it will be easier to get some funds.
    However, what is unclear, (assuming large potential of Varli) why are BP does not lien up to participate in trials? And BMY would be first candidate, IMO...

  • Reply to

    Company has promise but valuation is insane

    by singkumbaya May 14, 2014 4:36 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 May 14, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    I'd suggest you read my post from a week ago "what is CLDX worth". Basically, I think CLDX will be worth about $45-$50 in 2 years, not even taking into account varli, just based upon peak sales of Rindo & glemba around 1-1.5B. To realize full varli potential will, probably, takes more than 2 years, so, you say that CLDX will worth $80-$90 in 4 years, if not bought out before by BMY for $55-$60....
    On the other hand it is very possible that s/p won't shoot directly to the Moon, starting tomorrow, but will fluctuate and shorts will be able to squeeze few percentages IF closing position on time....Or maybe not...
    I'd rather hold it for 200%+ gains in 2 years....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ONXX
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